Ramble's Week 5 CFB

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Week 1: 1-1 (.1 units)
Week 2: 3-0 +3 units
Week 3: 3-4-2 (1.4 units)
Week 4: 0-3 (3.3 units)
Overall: 7-8-2 (1.8 units)

Disappointing week. Miss. St couldn't stop a three year old girl on a bicycle from going up the middle on Saturday, which led to an over and a loss on the total for me. Was out of town and ended up playing LSU and Toledo, unposted, so had a little success.

Locked in:

LSU -24
Arkansas St -2
New Mexico St +3.5
TCU +18.5
WMU -4
Duke -.5/South Florida -2.5 (-120) (.5 unit)
LSU -13.5 1st Half (-115) (.5 unit)


Possible Plays

Ole Miss +23.5 (eliminated) Maryland +11 (eliminated) Minnesota +17.5
Colorado +5.5
 Alabama +7
Duke -7 (eliminated, will play in teaser)
Memphis -1 (eliminated, flopped sides) Nevada +3.5 (eliminated)

Colorado is only lean remaining. May add it later.
 
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Guys, I'm liking all dogs this week. Is that bad? Which ones of these are no go's:

Troy +17
Maryland +11
Minnesota +17.5
Colorado +5.5
Alabama +7

 
I just think that Clemson has a chip on their shoulder for the rest of the season, and Maryland just feels like one of those games where they come out firing on all cylinders. I'm not sold on how mediocre Clemson is being protrayed, and I'm not sold on Maryland being good, at all, especially on the road.
 
RambleOn said:
Guys, I'm liking all dogs this week. Is that bad? Which ones of these are no go's:

Troy +17
Maryland +11
Minnesota +17.5
Colorado +5.5
Alabama +7
Click to expand...
Definitely like Bama and Colorado here, would lean MD at this point as well. No inputs either way on the other 2. :popcorn:
 
looks like a good lookin card forming up ramble...not so sure about troy myself, but like col, minn, memphis, duke, ole miss, tcu...

bucks with a lookahead, a qb making his first conference start, and against another spread offense...highly doubt they'll cover. 27-17
 
Thanks for the input guys. Can't seem to get a great feel for this year so far, plus I've had a lot of breaks go against me. Hope to break out of it this week.

Locked in LSU -24. The line was at -23.5 and the next time I looked, -24. Missed the damn number I wanted but hopefully it won't matter. I honestly have this number closer to 30. LSU is 24 pts better than MSU and add in HFA for Death Valley at night, at least 5 more points. That place gets fucking loud. Miss St gave up huge plays against GT on the road and I think LSU absolutely slaughter them. Probably my only favorite this week, barring a play on UNC.
 
ramble, as i said in the other thread, congrats on passing the bar

ummm, cant hate on the lsu play, i;ve seen nothing out of MSU to convince me otherwise.


early question, what are your thoughts on SC/OM next week and if u got time, why do u like memphis
 
BOL this week Ramble. LSU may only need 25 to cover there.

As for SMU, I'm not sure. Mitchell seems to be a turnover machine (why doesn't Willis get another shot), but that's about all I can provide at this point. Line keeps rising too, go figure.
 
E.T.G. said:
ramble, as i said in the other thread, congrats on passing the bar

ummm, cant hate on the lsu play, i;ve seen nothing out of MSU to convince me otherwise.


early question, what are your thoughts on SC/OM next week and if u got time, why do u like memphis
Click to expand...

Missed this news - congrats Ramble. :cheers::tiphat:
 
Thanks D-Money and ETG. :shake:

ETG - I will let you know here in a bit tonight and if I don't get to it by tomorrow. :shake:
 
Also going to be playing LSU 1st H when it comes out. Anything up to 2 TD's is an absolute gift in my opinion. LSU has lead Miss St by an average of about 30 at halftime over the last 5 years. Might be my friggin game of the year if the line is 13 or so
 
Cut my leans down to these:

TCU +17
Minnesota +17.5
Colorado +5.5
Alabama +7
New Mex St +3.5
ASU -1.5
USF -2/Duke PK

Almost surely will play all these, Minnesota I'm on the edge with and that one may not make my final card.

ETG asked for my Memphis thoughts, so here they are. At first I leaned Memphis, thinking they would be revenge-minded from last year. I honestly just don't think they keep up, even at home. It comes down to the fact that Arkie St is averaging something like 500 yards per game; they are just tearing it up offensively. I watched Memphis against the Rebels and they just aren't very quick or disciplined defensively. The Tigers are allowing close to 400 yards and 30 points per game, so Arkie St should get theirs. Conversely, Arkie St's defense has tallied 11 turnovers and at least 4 sacks a game this year. Arkie St runs away with this one.
 
Teaser thoughts:

This will be my first teaser, and I like it a lot. First, Duke has lost 8 straight to the Cavs and this is their chance for a win. We all know how atrocious Virginia is on the road and I'll be amazed if they pull off the upset. Virginia may sneak out a cover somehow, but I love getting Duke straight up here.

Sort of the same thoughts for USF. They have struggled on the road this year laying points, and -9/-10 is a little much for me to lay against a NC State team that is banged up but that has a lot of heart imo. I think USF matches up well and will gladly lay -2 because after NC State's big win last week I just don't see them doing it again.
 
ramble i agree with you on ncsu. wilson is injured (somehow?) and we also dont have nate irving in the middle to help be the playmaker we need on defense. I would be very very shocked if we somehow pulled an upset here. USF would be the side.
 
Wolfpack17 said:
ramble i agree with you on ncsu. wilson is injured (somehow?) and we also dont have nate irving in the middle to help be the playmaker we need on defense. I would be very very shocked if we somehow pulled an upset here. USF would be the side.
Click to expand...

Thanks Wolfpack. I'm very comfortable with laying just 2 with USF here.
 
Locked in:

LSU -24
LSU -13.5 1st H (-115)
Arkansas St -2
New Mexico St +3.5
TCU +18.5

Still considering Minny, Bama, and Colorado. Something seems odd about the Alabama line. They look amazing for the last two weeks and are getting a full 7 against UGA? For some reason that is begging for Bama money and I'm not sure what to do with it.
 
E.T.G -

Before this weekend I would have probably made South Carolina a -3 point favorite in Oxford next weekend. After the 6 TO performance by the Rebs at home I may have lost a little confidence in us, however I think my initial lean will be to Ole Miss +3 or more, which it will probably be closer to 7. I'll give some more thoughts after Saturday.
 
RambleOn said:
E.T.G -

Before this weekend I would have probably made South Carolina a -3 point favorite in Oxford next weekend. After the 6 TO performance by the Rebs at home I may have lost a little confidence in us, however I think my initial lean will be to Ole Miss +3 or more, which it will probably be closer to 7.
Click to expand...


ehh this game has worried me all summer and told myself then the line should be no higher than -3 on the road, that was back before i knew the offense was going to be playing like it is. This game is now a PIVOTAL battle for SC that can easily make or break their season going forward.

Going to be interesting with what both teams do this weekend and there is a nice little chess match in this game with Spurrier versus Tyrone Nix.
 
E.T.G. said:
ehh this game has worried me all summer and told myself then the line should be no higher than -3 on the road, that was back before i knew the offense was going to be playing like it is. This game is now a PIVOTAL battle for SC that can easily make or break their season going forward.

Going to be interesting with what both teams do this weekend and there is a nice little chess match in this game with Spurrier versus Tyrone Nix.
Click to expand...

Totally agree, SC and the Rebs in similar spots. This is a HUGE game for both squads I think.
 
BOL this week ramble...

like that teaser, will probably do a similar thing with duke and USF and throw em in a ML parlay with one other team... or maybe just lay the 7 in durham, havent decided yet but USF definitely.

hope to see ya on colorado, i put some thoughts up in RJ's thread. just looks like FSU offense is not clicking at all yet, way too many problems at QB as both ponder and richardson were terrible last week, just looked lost, rattled, and no chemistry with WR's. plus combined they threw 5 picks... against a tough WF defense, yes. but stil looking like prime fade material over the next couple weeks till they get in a rhythm offensively.

ALso on NM state.... liking that one more and more as i look at that game. prolly add ML too. GL this week man
 
CapTwo said:
BOL this week ramble...

like that teaser, will probably do a similar thing with duke and USF and throw em in a ML parlay with one other team... or maybe just lay the 7 in durham, havent decided yet but USF definitely.

hope to see ya on colorado, i put some thoughts up in RJ's thread. just looks like FSU offense is not clicking at all yet, way too many problems at QB as both ponder and richardson were terrible last week, just looked lost, rattled, and no chemistry with WR's. plus combined they threw 5 picks... against a tough WF defense, yes. but stil looking like prime fade material over the next couple weeks till they get in a rhythm offensively.

ALso on NM state.... liking that one more and more as i look at that game. prolly add ML too. GL this week man
Click to expand...

Sounds good, Cap. Out of my 3 remaining leans I'll prob be on the buffs out of all of them. Good luck this week.
 
Looks like WMU is likely going to be a play. A lot of people on this and I see why, don't know how I've missed it up until this point.
 
Action Play:

Tulane -7 2nd Half

Going to keep action plays separate with no units so I can track how I end up at the end of the year on them.
 
By the way, the reasons I like this are:

The total is 26.5. I give SMU the chance to score 1 TD in the 2nd H. That leaves 19.5 for Tulane by the book's count, and that covers the 2nd H line.

Tulane hasn't had to grind out anything, they've scored on big plays I think. Plus SMU has only turned it over 1 time, and I expect at least one more.
 
3 more action plays:

USC/Oregon St Over 26.5 2nd H
Oregon St +7 3rd Q
USC/Oregon St Over 10.5 3rd Q

:shake:
 
3-1 tonight on action plays, posted in 2nd H thread and ingame. Winners on UConn ML, Uconn +3, and Uconn +3.5, loser on Ville 2nd H.

5-3 action so far....can't wait for tomorrow. :shake:
 
UCLA +246 (.25 units)


Will add a couple more from this list: Alabama, New Mexico St, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
 
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