Ramble's Week 11 Leans/Plays

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Saturday: 8-1 +16.9 units
YTD: 65-56-2 (54%) +38.8 units

Stellar Saturday for me, going 8-1 and losing only the FSU/BC UNDER, which we all know was a total moose. Looking to go smaller this week, as I don't see a ton that interests me initially.

(Leans in italics, plays in bold)

Tuesday

Central Michigan -2 (2 units) :D
Central Michigan -2.5 (3 units) :D

Under 28 2nd H (2 units) (-125) :(
Under 13 rd Q (1 unit) (-125) :D

Central Michigan -3 : probably will end up playing this, want to see the line movement.

Wed

Akron +3 2nd H (-125) (1 unit) :D

Thurs

BYU -7 (4 units) :( Last quarter loser, lucky TCU backers.
Louisville/WVU Over 63.5 (2 units) :D

WVU -16.5
BYU -6.5 : thinking both home teams roll

Friday

No leans

Saturday

Missouri -17 (-120) (1 unit) :(
Florida -6 (1 unit) :D
Arizona St -6.5 (3 units) :(
Boston College -6 (6 units) :(

Arizona St -6 2nd H (1 unit) :D

Arkansas -1
Penn St -23.5
Kentucky -4
Miss St +4.5
Florida -6 (loving this so far, want to see line movement) (played)


Will add some thoughts later. :shake:
 
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Congrats Ramble, great weekend. I will definitely be riding Mizzou with you on Saturday. Also interested in AF over ND, K-State over NEB, Ohio State and whether Oklahoma will be interested in covering a big number against Baylor. I like your FLA pick as well.
 
i will be at the UF game and honestly that line made me say "WTF?"

Look at what ULL, LSU at times, Vandy, and Arky in some forms all did to SC with the read option. Plain and simple, WE CANT STOP IT.


If Tebow is 100%, you will see me on UF, otherwise I'll just stick to the over
 
ETG - I totally agree. I think Tebow is going to have a field day, and I thought 6 was a little short and expected it to rise.

Over looks good too.
 
Need some help here guys.......thinking about making this a big play but am confused about the line......

Central Michigan -2 @ Western Michigan (2 units)

There are several reasons why I want to hammer this play:

1. Line value

- The average power ranking has Central Michigan laying closer to -6 points here.
- Sagarin has the Chippewas laying almost -10.

2. Situation

- The Chippewas are 4-1 in conference against WMU's 2-3. With a win here, CMU can clinch the MAC West for the 2nd straight year and earn a spot in the Title game.

- With their 2-19 loss against Eastern Michigan, WMU lost their chances at winning the division. They are done. All they have left to look forward to is to play the spoiler in this rivalry game.

3. ATS records

- The Chippewas are 5-3 ATS, while WMU is 1-7 ATS.
- The Chippewas are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

4. History

- Chippewas won this game 31-7 last year, albeit at home. WMU with revenge?

5. Team Strength

- Although they don't play the best defense, the Chippewas lead the MAC in offense. Dan LeFevour has thrown for 18 TD's and 7 INT's this year.

6. Turnovers

- WMU is 108th in the Nation with 12 fumbles lost and 15 INT's thrown.
- CMU is .67 in turnover margin (25th in nation).


Can anyone honestly say that WMU should win this game, using any other reason than the line is moving their way and they want to play the spoiler to CMU's divisoin hopes?

Should be a big play for me, gimme some thoughts.
 
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Added:

Arizona St -6.5 (2 units)

Had been considering this, then I saw BAR on it big and decided to go ahead and add it. UCLA is in a tailspin and down to their 3rd QB. AZ St is coming off their first loss of the season and will need to avoid a let down here.

I think they will. Look at what QB Rudy Carpenter had to say about heading to California for this game:
"There's a lot of guys on our ASU team who I played against in high school, played with in All-Star games or who went to rival high schools just all in that area. For a lot of us, Southern California is our home and we're going back to play there. I think the guys get real excited. When we got back on Sunday, the guys were talking about how they need a bunch of tickets for the game and that's the big argument in the locker room right now, is tickets. I think everyone is going to be excited to play this game. I'm not worried about any let downs."

The team is also still optimistic on their chances on going to a BCS Bowl Game:

"I think people lose sight of that. We're 8-1, ranked number nine in the BCS in the tenth week of the season. Obviously we're disappointed because lost to Oregon, but Oregon is a good football team. Like we've been saying, if we keep worrying about us and taking care of the business we need to take care of, we will still have a great chance to play in a BCS Bowl game, which is what our main goal was going into the season."

This team is focused and they lost to a stellar Oregon team. I think they come out firing and hand UCLA their 3rd straight loss in a dominating performance.
 
gl this week Ramble... think imma join you on CMU. Really don't have any reasons not to play it other than CMU hasn't want there in long ass time..
 
Under 28 (2 units) (-125) (Bodog)

If it goes over 2nd H, CMU covers probably and I get a net win.
 
You'll be fine, brother. I went 0-14 a couple weekends ago, I promise you, it doesn't get much worse than that.
 
Hutch said:
Ramble. Wake your ass up, we have a game tonight.
Click to expand...

Been busy today, but now I am ready for some football.

According to the power rankings, Ohio is being a little overvalued tonight. Looks like Akron should be a slight favorite or at worst this should be a pickem.

Ohio is 5-1 SU but only 3-3 as a road favorite the last three years.

Ohio is playing for a bowl spot but a win here would not clinch it for them. It would, however, get Akron back into the hunt.

I've got a small lean to Akron tonight, still deciding if I will make a play.
 
This will not be added to my current record.

I thin Ohio wins this game, and since I am up a good bit, I am going to play some fun stuff for action on this game. On Bookmaker, Ohio is favored by -.5 for every quarter. at +120 odds or better on each. I figure if I play them all and win at least two, I win money, while getting to root on each quarter for some fun action. Here are my bets:

Ohio -.5 1st Q (.4 units) (+135) Loser (Ohio elects to go for it on 4th instead of kicking FG - tied 10-10)
Ohio -.5 2nd Q (.4 units) (+120)
Ohio -.5 3rd Q (.4 units) (+135)
Ohio -.5 4th Q (.4 units) (+135)

Yeah, it's stupid, but hell I think it'll be fun. :shake:
 
Last edited:
RambleOn said:
This will not be added to my current record.

I thin Ohio wins this game, and since I am up a good bit, I am going to play some fun stuff for action on this game. On Bookmaker, Ohio is favored by -.5 for every quarter. at +120 odds or better on each. I figure if I play them all and win at least two, I win money, while getting to root on each quarter for some fun action. Here are my bets:

Ohio -.5 1st Q (.4 units) (+135)
Ohio -.5 2nd Q (.4 units) (+120)
Ohio -.5 3rd Q (.4 units) (+135)
Ohio -.5 4th Q (.4 units) (+135)

Yeah, it's stupid, but hell I think it'll be fun. :shake:
Click to expand...

Rent a movie next time! LOL.

Actually I have done that before and does make the game interesting.. Go Ohio..
 
Thanks, Tee*Dub.

I got leary on my Ohio bet at the last second, so I said fuck it and decided to have some fun. I actually think Akron is the play. :(
 
RambleOn said:
Thanks, Tee*Dub.

I got leary on my Ohio bet at the last second, so I said fuck it and decided to have some fun. I actually think Akron is the play. :(
Click to expand...


Should have listened to myself. Akron is going to win this game.

Akron +3 2nd H (1 unit) (-125)
 
1-0 with another second half winner.

In other news, my "fun" bets at + odds went 0-4........Wow. Akron won every single quarter, much to my amazement. Like I said those won't be added win or lose because they were just for fun, but ended up not being very fun. :(
 
No time to chat tonight.....gotta work.

BYU -7 (4 units)

Louisville, WVU Over 63.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
Arizona St -6 2nd H (1 unit)

I am questioning Arizona St here, but I'll back them to win by 3. We all know they are a second half team.
 
Done with college football. Shit is so unpredictable, I'm getting out with a profit.

1-3 -9 units today

Check me in college basketball. Already up more there than the whole season here in football (my units there are double what they are here).

:shake:
 
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