Ramble's O/U Chase System begins: Devilrays/Yankees Over 10.5

[RambleOn]

I’ve only posted a couple games this year, think I’m about 3-2 and dead even in baseball.

Been thinking about trying my own chase system, and this one I am about to try just makes sense to me. The chase will begin in the Tampa Bay/Yankees 4 game series this weekend.

I am going to chase the OVER, starting tonight, so the play is OVER 10.5 for 1 unit.

The idea is to find two teams that historically post OVER or UNDER results against each other, and then chase for that result over a series. These two teams are 8-0-2 to the OVER over the last 10 meetings. Also, in the last 20 games, the largest UNDER streak is 2 games. The last 20 games between these two, the OVER is 13-5-2.
I will chase to make 1 unit.

O/U chase record: 0-0 (+ 0 units)


Wish me luck.... and feel free to chime in with thoughts. Don’t know if anyone has ever tried this, I’m sure they have. It just seems logical to me. :shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Give me something, baseball gurus. Is this a decent idea or what?

 

[AgainstThePublic]

That is a great series to start with. These two teams historically score runs against each other. Both starters tonight aren't world beaters and the bullpens are average (Yanks) and shit (TB). Over should hit. Jackson has pitched better recently but against the Yanks coming off a loss should equate to a stomping against a guy with a 7 era. We shall see. GL. I was leaning TB +1.5 but now I'm starting to shy away.

 

[RambleOn]

Adding another, 3 game series:

Giants @ Brewers Over 9 (1 unit)

Last 10: OVER is 7-1-2
Last 20: OVER is 11-6-2
Last 20: There has not been an UNDER streak over 2 games.

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck with it Zach, makes sense and you won't be juiced out...

 

[RambleOn]

2-0 tonight, nice start.

Chase System: 2-0 (+ 2 units)

 

[B.A.R.]

routine

 

[RambleOn]

Thanks, BAR. :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

I just want to know ..... your chase system involves raising your unit of bet when the event fails the first time ?

If so , I don't think this is a good system. The gutters of las vegas are littered with negative progression players. The good news is that the most a series will be is four games so the most you could lose in a series is 15 units before you would start over. The problem is that the most you can win in a series is 1 unit if I am understanding correctly ( that is to say that you stop betting the over as soon as the first over hits).

so lets look at it from the most common three game series point of view and that the books do a reasonable job of posting a fair number on average ( otherwise you are betting the over anyways ... no system needed )

over all three games = 1 unit ( 1 in 8 )
over 2 of 3 games = 1 unit ( 3 in 8 )
over 1 of 3 games = 1 unit ( 3 in 8 )
under all 3 games = negative 7 units ( 1 in 8 )

so over 8 series you make 1 unit when the over hits all 3 times, 3 units when it hits 2/3 and 3 units when it hits 1/3 but lose all 7 when it fails to hit once in the three games.

so the math makes it even money and you are likely laying juice on totals. Again, this assumes the book is posting fair numbers. If the book isn't then you should be betting the over anyway.

HUMAN NATURE -- I am stating this from over a decade of serious gambling experience, human nature does not respond well to negative progressions. Many people will be delighted as they roll along collecting a unit , a unit , a unit , a unit and then when they lose the seven units find it difficult to drop back down to the single unit. They will often chase the 7 units and before you know it they have over bet their bankroll. I am pretty sure almost every form of negative progression has been tried and as I said .... it has not bore fruits. I may be misunderstanding the system but if it is a basic negative progression then it is likely a bad system ( though if you were to stay disciplined you would likely only be juiced out in the long run).

Whether it is good or bad, I wish you success with it if you do it.

 

[hile75]

gl ramble.....as long as you hit the right series consistantly, should be a moneymaker

 

[RambleOn]

Vegaskyle -

Great post, man. It was very informative and I agree with everything you said. I guess the key here is picking the right series, as Hile said. In both the first games I played, the last 20 games had not yeilded an under result more than 2 consecutive times. I believe that is a key criteria. Basically, I plan to find matchups like that for every game. I am not going to be picking series where there is a 50/50 O/U ratio. It seems like if you continue to find teams that produce more OVERS or UNDERS when they play each other, combining that with the fact that in the last couple years, there has NEVER been 3 OVERS or UNDERS in a row, then you are greatly increasing your chances.

Pretty much, I am betting that the series I bet is NOT going to be the first time in 2 years that it goes UNDER 3 or 4 times consecutively. If I get screwed, so be it. But I think with the right criteria, this could work.

:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Might work. Historical context is a handicapping tool for sure and it looks like you are doing some nice research into the o/u history for each series.

Again , best of luck with it, and may you get the HR or K that you need at the most opportune time !!!

 

[RambleOn]

Vegaskyle -

Let's hope so bro. Either way, you'll see how it goes, because it will be documented here for all to see - good or bad.

Thanks for the well-wishes bro! Look forward to speaking with you in the future. :shake: