RambleOn
The Law of Winning
YTD: Sides: 7-3 -.5 units
I'm actually 7-3 +12.5 units on sides this year, but down 13 units on teasers and parlays! Wow, that is horrible. So, I am done playing those (or at least posting them), and I am only going to keep up with my ATS plays, because that is what I am good at. I am down a half a unit, am am ready to get into the +++$$$ side of things.
Two I've hit:
Houston -14 (-120) (3 units)
This will likely be my play of the week, and I plan on adding onto it if the line continues to creep downwards. After Houston whooped Tulane 45-7 last year at home, you have to at least give them a look laying two touches on the road.
Look at that game from last year, and you'll see that Houston stomped Tulane in every category. One of the funniest stats is that Tulane was 2 for 13 on third downs! That is freaking horrible, especially against a team in Houston when you want to keep their offense off the field. Houston also outgained them by almost 3:1 in total yards.
So what has changed leading up to the matchup this year? Well Kevin Kolb is gone, but red-shirt freshman Case Keenum (6-1, 205) is a pretty capable replacement at QB. In their first game @ Oregon this year, Keenum was 13-26 for 170 yards and a TD, while also throwing 1 INT. Houston rushed for over 300 yards, and outgained Oregon in Total Yards by about 80. However, Houston had 11 penalties and threw two picks total during the game. Houston covered the +17 line until the final 1:19, when Oregon finally pulled ahead of the line with a 2 yard run by Jeremiah Johnson. Houston will be contending with Tulsa for the division this year. The only question is Houston's defensive line. Although they have experience, they have been switching positions. However, with starters returning in all Linebacker positions and an experienced secondary, Houston should be improved on D this year.
As far as Tulane goes, they are pretty awful. Coming into this year, Junior Scott Elliot had played in 6 games, going 13-30 fwith no TD's and an INT. Senior RB Matt Forte missed a bunch of time in the spring, but he is a good back. He ran for 859 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Tulane has 3 returning starters on the O-line, but they have switched positions. Their D-line looked to be the strength of the team, returning three defensive line players with experience and age. However, in their opening game at Miss St, the wheels fell off of their expectations. Although Tulane QB Scott Elliot threw for 199 yards and his first TD, they couldn't get their running game going, managing only 46 yards on 17 attempts. Their defense left much to be desired as well. They allowed Miss State QB Mike Henig to throw for 230 yards and a TD, but intercepted him once. Miss St RB exposed the Tulane D as well, running for 134 yards and two TD's. Miss St had 256 rushing yards overall. They allowed Miss St to hold the ball twice the amount of time they did, exhibited in Miss State's 3rd down conversion percent of 63 (10 for 16) and their whopping 27 first downs (Tulane had 8).
The Matchup.
Houston comes into this game poised to make a statement in a conference game in which they dominated the year before. Keenum could possibly go for 400 yards in this game. Anthony Aldrige, who rushed for a whopping 207 yards at Oregon, will likely have a field day on a Tulane defense that has been exposed by an SEC bottom feeder. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, so they should be ready to pounce. Up next is a non-conference game in Colorado St, which will be a good game but not one to worry about at this point in time. Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 years against Tulane, so history is on their side. More importantly, Houston has gamebreaker Anthony "Quick" Aldrige (5-9, 175). This kid is sick. Although he is not huge, he runs a 4.26 40, and has big play potential. Against Oregon, he had a 60 yard TD run AND an 86 yard recieving TD. Look for this kid to break at least one big TD run off against this Tulane defense.
The Line:
I think the line is about right on this one. It opened at 12 I believe and was quickly bet to 15, before it dropped back down a little big. Houston was -14 pt favorites against Tulane at home last year, which would have made them -11 on a neutral site. I'd say, even with the loss of Kevin Kolb, that Houston has not gotten that much worse this year - but Tulane has. The line opening at around 12 for this road game was about right, and I'm happy to be laying only two touchdowns.
The Play: Houston -14 (3 units)
Houston: 48 Tulane: 21
Michigan -9.5 (1 unit)
This is more of a gut play than anything else. Michigan is in DIRE need of a win here, and we know how bad Notre Dame is in almost every category of the game we call football. Michigan needs a dominating win here and I'll back them for a unit.
Southern Miss +1 (1 unit)
May add to this one as the week progresses. Southern Miss lost to EC in OT last year 20-17. Their two dominant playmakers return in QB Jeremy Young and RB Damion Fletcher, from a team that won the C-USA East in '06. East Carolina hung tough against VA Tech in week one, but after LSU stomped them, that doesn't seem so impressive to me. Also, ECU lost their starting QB, RB from last year, and 2 starting WR's. They did score 34 against NC - but that was to a defense that gave up 398 yards a game last year, and gets a "C" in defense from Blue Ribbon. Bottom line is - this is a game that Southern Miss has to win, if they plan on playing for the C-USA championship. East Carolina will be one of the biggest hurdles in their division, so I expect the experienced players on S. Miss's squad to step up in remembrance of the loss last year in OT. I expect S.Miss to get an early road victory here by 6 pts.
Miss St/Auburn Under 42.5 (1 unit)
Was waiting on this one, jumped on it and it quickly moved to 41.5. Auburn can't throw, and Miss St's weakness is their secondary. Auburn can run, but State's run D is pretty decent. Auburn looks complacent and Henig is bad. I like this one alot under 6 TD's.
Notre Dame/Michigan Under 42 (1 unit)
Another total I like at under 6 TD's. We all know ND's ineptness and Michigan is shell-shocked and without Henne this week (I know because I am fucked on my Michigan -9.5) Michigan needs a win here and should have a safe, run-oriented game plan to try and grind out a win. Nothing fancy here.
Boston College +7.5 (bought) (1 unit)
Love this over a TD. This should be a tight game so I'll grab the points and hope the Eagles upset.
Looking to add:
Bama -3x
Boston College +7
Good luck this week guys. :shake:
I'm actually 7-3 +12.5 units on sides this year, but down 13 units on teasers and parlays! Wow, that is horrible. So, I am done playing those (or at least posting them), and I am only going to keep up with my ATS plays, because that is what I am good at. I am down a half a unit, am am ready to get into the +++$$$ side of things.
Two I've hit:
Houston -14 (-120) (3 units)
This will likely be my play of the week, and I plan on adding onto it if the line continues to creep downwards. After Houston whooped Tulane 45-7 last year at home, you have to at least give them a look laying two touches on the road.
Look at that game from last year, and you'll see that Houston stomped Tulane in every category. One of the funniest stats is that Tulane was 2 for 13 on third downs! That is freaking horrible, especially against a team in Houston when you want to keep their offense off the field. Houston also outgained them by almost 3:1 in total yards.
So what has changed leading up to the matchup this year? Well Kevin Kolb is gone, but red-shirt freshman Case Keenum (6-1, 205) is a pretty capable replacement at QB. In their first game @ Oregon this year, Keenum was 13-26 for 170 yards and a TD, while also throwing 1 INT. Houston rushed for over 300 yards, and outgained Oregon in Total Yards by about 80. However, Houston had 11 penalties and threw two picks total during the game. Houston covered the +17 line until the final 1:19, when Oregon finally pulled ahead of the line with a 2 yard run by Jeremiah Johnson. Houston will be contending with Tulsa for the division this year. The only question is Houston's defensive line. Although they have experience, they have been switching positions. However, with starters returning in all Linebacker positions and an experienced secondary, Houston should be improved on D this year.
As far as Tulane goes, they are pretty awful. Coming into this year, Junior Scott Elliot had played in 6 games, going 13-30 fwith no TD's and an INT. Senior RB Matt Forte missed a bunch of time in the spring, but he is a good back. He ran for 859 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Tulane has 3 returning starters on the O-line, but they have switched positions. Their D-line looked to be the strength of the team, returning three defensive line players with experience and age. However, in their opening game at Miss St, the wheels fell off of their expectations. Although Tulane QB Scott Elliot threw for 199 yards and his first TD, they couldn't get their running game going, managing only 46 yards on 17 attempts. Their defense left much to be desired as well. They allowed Miss State QB Mike Henig to throw for 230 yards and a TD, but intercepted him once. Miss St RB exposed the Tulane D as well, running for 134 yards and two TD's. Miss St had 256 rushing yards overall. They allowed Miss St to hold the ball twice the amount of time they did, exhibited in Miss State's 3rd down conversion percent of 63 (10 for 16) and their whopping 27 first downs (Tulane had 8).
The Matchup.
Houston comes into this game poised to make a statement in a conference game in which they dominated the year before. Keenum could possibly go for 400 yards in this game. Anthony Aldrige, who rushed for a whopping 207 yards at Oregon, will likely have a field day on a Tulane defense that has been exposed by an SEC bottom feeder. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, so they should be ready to pounce. Up next is a non-conference game in Colorado St, which will be a good game but not one to worry about at this point in time. Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 years against Tulane, so history is on their side. More importantly, Houston has gamebreaker Anthony "Quick" Aldrige (5-9, 175). This kid is sick. Although he is not huge, he runs a 4.26 40, and has big play potential. Against Oregon, he had a 60 yard TD run AND an 86 yard recieving TD. Look for this kid to break at least one big TD run off against this Tulane defense.
The Line:
I think the line is about right on this one. It opened at 12 I believe and was quickly bet to 15, before it dropped back down a little big. Houston was -14 pt favorites against Tulane at home last year, which would have made them -11 on a neutral site. I'd say, even with the loss of Kevin Kolb, that Houston has not gotten that much worse this year - but Tulane has. The line opening at around 12 for this road game was about right, and I'm happy to be laying only two touchdowns.
The Play: Houston -14 (3 units)
Houston: 48 Tulane: 21
Michigan -9.5 (1 unit)
This is more of a gut play than anything else. Michigan is in DIRE need of a win here, and we know how bad Notre Dame is in almost every category of the game we call football. Michigan needs a dominating win here and I'll back them for a unit.
Southern Miss +1 (1 unit)
May add to this one as the week progresses. Southern Miss lost to EC in OT last year 20-17. Their two dominant playmakers return in QB Jeremy Young and RB Damion Fletcher, from a team that won the C-USA East in '06. East Carolina hung tough against VA Tech in week one, but after LSU stomped them, that doesn't seem so impressive to me. Also, ECU lost their starting QB, RB from last year, and 2 starting WR's. They did score 34 against NC - but that was to a defense that gave up 398 yards a game last year, and gets a "C" in defense from Blue Ribbon. Bottom line is - this is a game that Southern Miss has to win, if they plan on playing for the C-USA championship. East Carolina will be one of the biggest hurdles in their division, so I expect the experienced players on S. Miss's squad to step up in remembrance of the loss last year in OT. I expect S.Miss to get an early road victory here by 6 pts.
Miss St/Auburn Under 42.5 (1 unit)
Was waiting on this one, jumped on it and it quickly moved to 41.5. Auburn can't throw, and Miss St's weakness is their secondary. Auburn can run, but State's run D is pretty decent. Auburn looks complacent and Henig is bad. I like this one alot under 6 TD's.
Notre Dame/Michigan Under 42 (1 unit)
Another total I like at under 6 TD's. We all know ND's ineptness and Michigan is shell-shocked and without Henne this week (I know because I am fucked on my Michigan -9.5) Michigan needs a win here and should have a safe, run-oriented game plan to try and grind out a win. Nothing fancy here.
Boston College +7.5 (bought) (1 unit)
Love this over a TD. This should be a tight game so I'll grab the points and hope the Eagles upset.
Looking to add:
Bama -3x
Boston College +7
Good luck this week guys. :shake:
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