RambleOn
The Law of Winning
Sides: 4-2 +2.7 units
1st Halves: 0-2 -4.4 units
Totals: 0-1 -.55 units
Teasers: 0-2 -8 units
Total: 4-7 -10.3 units
Decided to go ahead and post this, because it is going to be my biggest play of the weekend. Just going to switch everything over to this thread in a minute.
I hit my plays this weekend, then went big on FSU and got killed because I was steaming from a poker play. Although I am down 10 units posted, I won all of that back last night playing a cash game online! So, in my head, I am starting from scratch (but will obviously remain down 9 units, posted. :shake
Full card:
Mizzou -6 @ Ole Miss (8 units)
VA Tech @ LSU -13 (2 units): Same thoughts as everyone else, love the Tigers' offense and the situtation here is offense: home night opener in Death Valley baby!
Hawaii -28 @ La Tech (2 units): Total mismatch here, Hawaii should throw 60+ up.
Notre Dame @ Penn ST -17: I hate Notre Dame, and I think they are in for a beating this week.
Last Week’s Result: I predicted Cal by 14 in a revenge game, and nailed it on the head, as they covered the spread and won by 14.
Last week, I was on the side of the losing team in a revenge game, but this week, I’m on the winning team to repeat. My Game of the Weekend HAS to be Missouri @ Ole Miss on September 8. After a 34-7 shellacking at the hands of Chase Daniels and Co. last year, the Mississppi Rebels are looking to avenge that loss in their home opener in Oxford. Only problem is, it’s not going to happen.
Let’s look at last year’s game. Lopsided doesn’t even describe it properly. Keep in mind – the game was at Mizzou – but the Tigers clearly showed they were the dominant team, outgaining MS in every key stat:
First Downs: Missouri – 26 Ole Miss - 10
3rd Down Efficiency: Missouri – 7 for 17 (41%) Ole Miss – 3 for 14 (21%)
Rushing yards: Missouri – 218 Ole Miss- 72 (Green-Ellis with 69 of these)
Passing Yards: Missouri – 253 Ole Miss – 90
Interceptions: Missouri – 0 Ole Miss – 3
After being up 17-7 at half, Ole Miss simply couldn’t muster the strength to come back. Missouri cruised in the second half, outscoring Ole Miss 17-0.
The question is: Has enough changed this year for Ole Miss to be on the winning side of this match-up? The answer: Not even close.
A quick look at both teams opening games this year:
Ole Miss: 23 Memphis: 21
Ole Miss opened it’s season with a win at Memphis, but it was VERY deceiving. First, it is expected for Ole Miss to beat Memphis, no matter how shitty either team is. This has been done by Ole Miss in good times and bad – it is just a game that the Rebels win every year. But look at the stats. Ole Miss was outgained in first downs 17-33. They were outgained in total yards by a whopping 270 to 479. Ole Miss only completed 5 of 11 3rd down attempts. So how did they win? It was mistakes that Memphis made that cost them the game. Although Memphis QB Martin Hankins was an ASTOUNDING 41-61 for 341 yards and a TD, he threw, count them, FOUR interceptions, one of which Ole Miss returned for a TD. Ole Miss also ran back a blocked kick for a TD. Memphis dominated the game in every aspect, but just couldn’t protect the football. I’d say Ole Miss was lucky to win the game, however, Memphis backers got the money, as they covered the +2.5 - +3 spread.
Missouri: 40 Illinois: 34
Missouri went on the road to play an Illini team that was 2-10 last year, but returned 9 offensive and defensive starters and were supposed to be much improved. However, Chase Daniel was simply unstoppable, going 37 of 54 for 358 yards and 3 TD, and 0 interceptions. Illinois played a hell of a game, with QB McGee throwing for 258 yards and Juice Williams throwing for another 60. However, McGee threw 2 INT’s that really hurt. Mendenhall rushed for only 33 yards, but had two TD’s. When all was said and done, Missouri won by 6 and covered the line of -4. ( I had Missouri.).
The Matchup:
When Missouri rolls into Oxford on September 8th, the Rebels are going to be seriously outmatched. Last year, the Missouri defense did a great job of limiting RB Green-Ellis, allowing only 69 yards on 16 carries. The Rebels defense, however, was lacking when it came to run defense. They allowed Daniel, Temple, Woods, and Coleman to rack up 214 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This year, Ole Miss’s defense is worlds away from last year’s with the loss of Patrick Willis and Rory Johnson at linebacker. Also, Ole Miss’s defensive line is young and inexperienced, and allowed 158 rushing yards per game last year. Look for Chase Daniels and company to run all over this young D. Moving onto the offense – the comparison’s aren’t even close. Chase Daniel FAR outshines newcomer Seth Adams, although Adams is probably an improvement from Brent Shaeffer. Chase Daniel is an incredible quarterback, possessing all of the intangibles to dominate the position. His offensive coordinator, Dave Christensen, said that if he becomes a head coach someday, and Chase Daniel isn’t playing in the NFL, he would hire him as his quarterbacks coach, no questions asked. He finished last year with 28 TD passes, 3,527 passing yards, and 3,906 total yards, all school records. Missouri was 8th in scoring offense last year – it shouldn’t be a problem to pick apart Ole Miss’s secondary, which allowed 195 passing yards a game last year (46th). The only downside I could find in this game is that it is a home-opener for an SEC team. However, the feeling around Oxford is less than amicable towards Ogeron and this Rebels team, and although there are some quality opponents that the Rebels always play close, especially at home, (See LSU, Alabama), Missouri is not going to be one of them.
The Line:
Amazingly, the line opened at -5.5, and has since moved to -6. How can this be correct? That means at a neutral site, Mizzou opens at -8.5, and at Mizzou, they are -11.5. Only a 1.5 pt change from last year’s opener, when Missouri is clearly going to be better, and Ole Miss the same, or worse? (at least on defense). I think a fairer line would have been Missouri -7.5.
The Play:
Missouri -6 (8 units)
Missouri: 42 Ole Miss: 17
1st Halves: 0-2 -4.4 units
Totals: 0-1 -.55 units
Teasers: 0-2 -8 units
Total: 4-7 -10.3 units
Decided to go ahead and post this, because it is going to be my biggest play of the weekend. Just going to switch everything over to this thread in a minute.
I hit my plays this weekend, then went big on FSU and got killed because I was steaming from a poker play. Although I am down 10 units posted, I won all of that back last night playing a cash game online! So, in my head, I am starting from scratch (but will obviously remain down 9 units, posted. :shake
Full card:
Mizzou -6 @ Ole Miss (8 units)
VA Tech @ LSU -13 (2 units): Same thoughts as everyone else, love the Tigers' offense and the situtation here is offense: home night opener in Death Valley baby!
Hawaii -28 @ La Tech (2 units): Total mismatch here, Hawaii should throw 60+ up.
Notre Dame @ Penn ST -17: I hate Notre Dame, and I think they are in for a beating this week.
Last Week’s Result: I predicted Cal by 14 in a revenge game, and nailed it on the head, as they covered the spread and won by 14.
Last week, I was on the side of the losing team in a revenge game, but this week, I’m on the winning team to repeat. My Game of the Weekend HAS to be Missouri @ Ole Miss on September 8. After a 34-7 shellacking at the hands of Chase Daniels and Co. last year, the Mississppi Rebels are looking to avenge that loss in their home opener in Oxford. Only problem is, it’s not going to happen.
Let’s look at last year’s game. Lopsided doesn’t even describe it properly. Keep in mind – the game was at Mizzou – but the Tigers clearly showed they were the dominant team, outgaining MS in every key stat:
First Downs: Missouri – 26 Ole Miss - 10
3rd Down Efficiency: Missouri – 7 for 17 (41%) Ole Miss – 3 for 14 (21%)
Rushing yards: Missouri – 218 Ole Miss- 72 (Green-Ellis with 69 of these)
Passing Yards: Missouri – 253 Ole Miss – 90
Interceptions: Missouri – 0 Ole Miss – 3
After being up 17-7 at half, Ole Miss simply couldn’t muster the strength to come back. Missouri cruised in the second half, outscoring Ole Miss 17-0.
The question is: Has enough changed this year for Ole Miss to be on the winning side of this match-up? The answer: Not even close.
A quick look at both teams opening games this year:
Ole Miss: 23 Memphis: 21
Ole Miss opened it’s season with a win at Memphis, but it was VERY deceiving. First, it is expected for Ole Miss to beat Memphis, no matter how shitty either team is. This has been done by Ole Miss in good times and bad – it is just a game that the Rebels win every year. But look at the stats. Ole Miss was outgained in first downs 17-33. They were outgained in total yards by a whopping 270 to 479. Ole Miss only completed 5 of 11 3rd down attempts. So how did they win? It was mistakes that Memphis made that cost them the game. Although Memphis QB Martin Hankins was an ASTOUNDING 41-61 for 341 yards and a TD, he threw, count them, FOUR interceptions, one of which Ole Miss returned for a TD. Ole Miss also ran back a blocked kick for a TD. Memphis dominated the game in every aspect, but just couldn’t protect the football. I’d say Ole Miss was lucky to win the game, however, Memphis backers got the money, as they covered the +2.5 - +3 spread.
Missouri: 40 Illinois: 34
Missouri went on the road to play an Illini team that was 2-10 last year, but returned 9 offensive and defensive starters and were supposed to be much improved. However, Chase Daniel was simply unstoppable, going 37 of 54 for 358 yards and 3 TD, and 0 interceptions. Illinois played a hell of a game, with QB McGee throwing for 258 yards and Juice Williams throwing for another 60. However, McGee threw 2 INT’s that really hurt. Mendenhall rushed for only 33 yards, but had two TD’s. When all was said and done, Missouri won by 6 and covered the line of -4. ( I had Missouri.).
The Matchup:
When Missouri rolls into Oxford on September 8th, the Rebels are going to be seriously outmatched. Last year, the Missouri defense did a great job of limiting RB Green-Ellis, allowing only 69 yards on 16 carries. The Rebels defense, however, was lacking when it came to run defense. They allowed Daniel, Temple, Woods, and Coleman to rack up 214 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This year, Ole Miss’s defense is worlds away from last year’s with the loss of Patrick Willis and Rory Johnson at linebacker. Also, Ole Miss’s defensive line is young and inexperienced, and allowed 158 rushing yards per game last year. Look for Chase Daniels and company to run all over this young D. Moving onto the offense – the comparison’s aren’t even close. Chase Daniel FAR outshines newcomer Seth Adams, although Adams is probably an improvement from Brent Shaeffer. Chase Daniel is an incredible quarterback, possessing all of the intangibles to dominate the position. His offensive coordinator, Dave Christensen, said that if he becomes a head coach someday, and Chase Daniel isn’t playing in the NFL, he would hire him as his quarterbacks coach, no questions asked. He finished last year with 28 TD passes, 3,527 passing yards, and 3,906 total yards, all school records. Missouri was 8th in scoring offense last year – it shouldn’t be a problem to pick apart Ole Miss’s secondary, which allowed 195 passing yards a game last year (46th). The only downside I could find in this game is that it is a home-opener for an SEC team. However, the feeling around Oxford is less than amicable towards Ogeron and this Rebels team, and although there are some quality opponents that the Rebels always play close, especially at home, (See LSU, Alabama), Missouri is not going to be one of them.
The Line:
Amazingly, the line opened at -5.5, and has since moved to -6. How can this be correct? That means at a neutral site, Mizzou opens at -8.5, and at Mizzou, they are -11.5. Only a 1.5 pt change from last year’s opener, when Missouri is clearly going to be better, and Ole Miss the same, or worse? (at least on defense). I think a fairer line would have been Missouri -7.5.
The Play:
Missouri -6 (8 units)
Missouri: 42 Ole Miss: 17
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