Ramble's Monday Night Plays

[RambleOn]

Well, was up about 18 units on the year, and lost all my profit on NE last game. We all saw what happened there, Eagles played their best game of the year, and I can do nothing about that.

The reason its been so hard for me to pull the trigger tonight is because I don't want to get burned twice in a row. However, this matchup is so much different. Check my "Monday Night Thread" for some great thoughts from Sammy Meatballs.

My bottom line is this: I really cannot fathom the game going over, AND the Ravens covering. No matter what, their offense is horrible, and they are NOT going to have their best offensive game of the year against the Patriots, it's just not going to happen. So, I'm laying my bets on the Patriots and the Under, in hopes for a split at worst.

Patriots -17 (-109) (9 units)
Waited for this to drop to -18.5, then bought it to 17. I'm betting the same amount on 17 as I was going to bet on 19, so paying the extra juice is not a factor, I will just win less. (Juice adjusted because of a free bet riding on Pats tha tis taking care of some of the juice).

Patriots/Ravens Under 48.5 (6 units)
Caught this on Bodog last night, when everyone else had dropped to 48. The reason there is more here is because I am going to wait and see if the Pats line drops any more, so maybe I can get the remaining two units there at -130 or less.


BOL guys. Might not be the right side, but it's how I see it. :shake:

 

[JUSTDOiT]

Agree that New England might be the right side, but I'm more happy losing with New England than Baltimore. Might be on the over for tonight since winds in Baltimore are over exaggerated. 7 TDs covers 48.5. Even if New England scores a season low of 4 TD a game, which I think is unlikely.

 

[RambleOn]

Justdoit - I hear ya, bro. I'm not saying I love the Under. As a matter of fact, I'm going to have more on the side when it all comes down. I just think that the Under is a superb hedge, because Pats could win if it goes under OR over, but if goes over, Baltimore is going to lose ATS.

 

[JUSTDOiT]

Good point. BOL tonight. :cheers:

I'm still feeling shitty that Cinci played a HORRENDOUS game. That killed my day.:hang:

 

[tee*dub]

:smiley_acbe::cheers:

 

[STEED]

BOL ramble

 

[NYGiants25]

reasoning sounds good to me ... best of luck tonight bud ... :cheers:

 

[ljc_267]

best of luck Ramble :shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Got the rest of my money down at -17 -130, and have a free play pending as well, so I adjusted my juice for the bet.......

 

[RambleOn]

Thanks LJC. :shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Looking at some props.....

 

[RambleOn]

Added Props:

NE -4 1st Q (-160) (1 unit)

Baltimore Ravens TT Under 14.5 (-115) (1 unit)

 

[JUSTDOiT]

Hey Ramble,

Just wondering about that under play...I think I might play the under, but for the pats to cover a high spread, we're looking at ravens either being SHUT OUT or 1 TD at most. If the Ravens can pick up even just 2 TDS, our unders should be dead.

Any thoughts?

 

[RambleOn]

Final one:

Randy Moss -26.5 Receiving Yards v. Derrick Mason (-115) (1 unit)

 

[RambleOn]

Just Do it -

I am only laying 17 on this game.

Pats can win 28-10 and I still win this. 31-14 works as a push for me as well. I'm thinking more like 35-7, though.

Also, like I said above, the Under is more of a hedge, for me. That's why I have more on Pats. They can cover in an under OR over result IMO, so there's the value for me. Baltimore can ONLY cover in an UNDER result, because if it goes over, Pats will cover. So, I'm looking to hedge with that Under. :shake:

 

[JUSTDOiT]

BOL works for me.

 

[RambleOn]

Someone just CRUSHED New England at BM, up 1.5 pts in 1 minute to -19.5!

 

[RambleOn]

CRUSHED back down to -18.5 now! Haha.

 

[G-Man]

I think you'll win every prop bet too. :shake::shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Thanks GMAN. :shake:

I love the Randy prop. He got a lot of hell after last week's performance and should come out with extra motivation tonight. Hopefully he'll get a couple extra touches, we'll see. If Ravens score over 14.5, I'll be VERY surprised. :shake:

 

[RambleOn]

12 units on Pats now.....

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good luck holmes, we need this one, I'm on it too

 

[RambleOn]

A little hedge action:

Ravens +10 (+105) (3 units)

Love that I'm getting this at plus juice. I took Eagles last week against the Pats and it was an easy cover. I would not recommend this play for someone that has Pats -19. However, since I have -17, I think it's a decent hedge. If Pats cover the -10, I have a very good chance of at least pushing my -17. Only think that can kill me is a 14pt Pats victory. I'd have to get pretty unlucky for that to happen.