Ramble's CFB Week 9 Leans/Plays

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Last Week: 2-7 +2 units
Thursday Night: 3-1 +12.9 units
Saturday: 8-11-1 +7.1 units
Overall: 48-49-2 +23.1 units

Hit my Game of the Year on Troy, with an easy 45-7 win. I wish they all went like that: my other plays on Saturday went 0-6!!! I have gone from 11-0 one week, to 2-6 the next, 4-10 the next, 13-5 the next, then 2-7 the next. It seems I'm either HOT or COLD - no in between. Oh well.

Leans this week: (leans in Italics, plays in bold)


Thursday:

I was on Va Tech, but changed my lean here. Boston College is 11-2 as a road dog in their last 13. I especially like it because the line is climbing and I may be able to get BC at +4 or above come thursday afternoon. I give Va Tech a very good chance of winning, but in a low scoring game gotta lean BC here.

BC/Va Tech UNDER 43 (7 units) :D
BC +9/UNDER 49 (6 units) :D
2nd H UNDER 17.5 (1 unit) :D
2nd H Va Tech PK (1 unit) :(

Friday: Fresno +3.5

Saturday: 1-6 -13.2 units so far

OSU -3 (-120) (4 units) :D
Mizzou -17 1st H (2 units) :(
Troy -4 (6 units) :D
Nevada -16.5 (2 units) :( MISSED EXTRA POINT WITH 10 SECONDS TO LOSE!!!!
ASU -3 (5 units) :D
PItt/Louisville OVER 61.5 (1 unit) :(
La Tech/Utah St UNDER 52 (missed 53.5) (.5 unit) FUCKING PUSH
Rice +9 (4 units) :(
Rice ML +255 (to win 1 unit) :(
Central Michigan -3 (.5 units) :D
UVA/NC State UNDER 44 (2 units) :(
Rice/Marshall OVER 67 (2 units) :(
Middle Tennessee St -12.5 (4 units) :D

2nd Halves: 1-4 -1.2 units

Louisville -6 (.5 units) :(
Central Michigan PK (.5 units) :(
Mizzou -14 (Even) (.5 units) :(
La Tech/Utah St UNDER 24.5 (.5 units) :(
South Florida -3 (1 unit) :D
Troy PK (2 units) :D
Troy/Arky Under 28 (2 units) :D

Vandy -13.5, Kansas -2.5, Ohio St -3.5 (played), Hawaii -26, Troy -4 (played)

:shake:
 
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this year is fucked up brah..way to hit the GOY..that's what counts, not the record..the big plays are where the dough is.
 
Hunt Thanks for the encouragement.

Added:

OSU -3 (-120) (4 units)

I've been looking for a good spot to fade Penn St and this is it. I have Ohio St laying 7 here.
 
Adding:

Mizzou -17 1st H (2 units)

This is going to be a first half blowout. Iowa St upset Mizzou last year as 13.5 point dogs and now Mizzou gets them at home and is looking for revenge. Mizzou is perfect on the year ATS, and has led at half against every team they have played.

More than that, Iowa St is AWFUL against the pass in the first half. In their first halves this year, they have allowed QB's to connect on 90 passes out of 128, for 70%, giving up a total of 1,025 yards! That is 4th worst in the Nation.

Mizzou is 6th best in the Nation in passing efficiency in 68% and 1,373 yards. They have led by 28, 14, 14, and 7 their last 4 home games. Total mismatch here and Mizzou should put this game away by halftime. Call it 27 -6 Mizzou.
 
Anyone know anything about this La Tech/Utah St game?

Utah St has lost their last 24 of 26, and are 0-7 this year so far. Utah St has been steadily improving, playing close at Hawaii and Utah and then almost getting the win their last game, losing by 3 as 7 pt dogs to Nevada. La Tech hasn't won a road game this year, and is and astounding 4-13 SU on the road the last 5 years! They are 5-12 ATS in those games.

This seems like the absolute perfect time to bet Utah St getting 3 points to get their first win.

Thoughts......?
 
Adding:

Troy -4 (2 units)

Hit this just before it went to 4.5. Troy played well for me last game and I expect them to do it again this week. Check CB's thread for some thoughts, Troy pass rush should give Arky St fits and I expect Troy to pass pass pass on their way to a victory here.
 
Troy again aye ?

Dance with the girl you came with , they say.
Don't ahve issue with any of your plays this week ramble, save maybe osu and i am not done examining that one.

gl this week and grats again on hittting your game of the year last week
 
Adding:

ASU -3 (1 unit)

Off a bye, and homecoming to boot. ASU watched patiently last week, and saw what it took to give Cal it's second loss of the season. Now ASU will try to remain undefeated when Cal comes to town. Cal is still fighting for bowl eligibility, and has to be pissed off after two straight losses - and that's the only reason this isn't a 2 unit play. ASU has had ample time to prepare for this game, and Cal should be too banged up to hang here.
 
I'm waiting on bjorks, if he sobers up enough during homecoming to post, but I like ASU, as well...I'm starting to warm up to Troy, but I hate the road chalk in this conference angle...

OSU is a tail for me because of some of the heavy-hitters on the board that I trust...GLTY, ramble

I note the 1H play with Mizzou, too...I think I likey...
 
Yup , i have a few thoughts about the aggies hosting LA tech.

-this is a huge let down spot for louisiana tech after playing dead even with bosie last week and coming out with a loss and having to travel up to utah to play the aggies , who they cant be excited about playing.

-Louisiana tech has a much improved defense this year and it is especially solid vs the run.

-latech gave up 85 rushing to ole miss, 65 rushing to nmsu and 137 rushing vs bosie last week, over there last three games.

-utah state cannot throw the football. i threw out the oklahoma stats as the mismatch would only skew the stats... but in their 6 other games utah state has thrown for the following totals.
137 unlv, 147 wtoming, 78 sjsu, 139 utah, 247 hawaii, 106 nevada.

-utah state will have to throw more effectively to have any chance to win as latech defends the run well.

-in the six games mentioned above, utah state has had 15 first downs or less in 5 of them. the lone time they had more was while being blown off the field vs hawaii they put up garbage numbers in the secondhalf.

-utah state andlatech have been terrible converting on third down this year but the third down defense of both has not been bad.

-latech is a run first team and utah state has been somewhat average vs the run if you throw out themismatch oklahoma game.

-utah state will try to shorten the game by running , but will be forced to throw. latech will run because it is how they will win.

-- what i see here is a low scoring game. latech will not have great need to throw as they should run with average success and utah state will struggle to score due to inability to throw and a latech rush defense that is fairly stout.

-- i have a lean to latech in this one as their defense just matches up well with aggies offense. it is a terrible spot for them though and you know aggies have this one circled as one they think they can win. in my mind latech is clearly the better squad. however latech has just been atrocious the last few years on the road ( arguably the worst road team in the nation over the past few years). What i am really looking for here is a high total that i can go under. somewhat repetitive post but i hope it makes sense anyways.
 
VK -

Wow, alot more than I expected but thanks. I pretty much agree with everything you said, and definitely agree that La Tech is the better team in the worst spot. I probably won't be playing it, but thanks for the thoughts. I'm adding another game that I love:

Nevada -16.5 (2 units)

Nevada hasn't had a "breakout" game this year, and this is going to be it. After a two game road stint and their first WAC win last game, they head home with some confidence against a Vandals team that they DESTROYED 45-7 last year. Colin Kaepernick has recently taken over for the Wolfpack (9 TDs and 1 INT so far for 808 yards in his two starts) and should shred a Vandal D that allows 304 passing yards a game. Nevada also sports an incredible running game at 9th in the nation, grabbing over 200 yards per game on the ground.

Idaho's starting QB is questionable Saturday with an injured finger, so the Idaho backup QB will probably go. Nevada's secondary should have an easy time defending the pass. Nevada's weakness is their run defense: if they can hold Deonte Jackson to Under 100 yards, I don't see how Idaho scores over 14 here.

Nevada are 12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last 13 and 9-3 ATS their last 12 conference games. Idaho is a heart-wrenching 0-8 ATS their last 8 against conference foes.

Blowout city, for a third straight year.
 
Great thread to read so far. Heck of a job on the GOY last week. that was routine as hell.
 
Should be final adds:

PItt/Louisville OVER 61.5 (1 unit)

La Tech/Utah St UNDER 52 (missed 53.5) (.5 unit)
 
Adding:

BC/VA Tech Under 43 (1 unit)

Got a weak number here, but I have been looking at this since the lines opened, and was pushed over the edge after VK posted in his thread the weather situation. Good D and rain = Under.
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">gl bro
</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Finall - a weekend starting out on the right foot with a HUGE thursday night score in Blacksburg.

3-1 +12.9 units last night, and now up a little more than that on the year!
 
Couple more coming......

Rice +9 (1 unit), Rice ML +255 (to win 1 unit)

This is a crazy line. How is Marshall laying DD's here? Seriously. Rice can win this game so I will gladly take 9 and dabble on my first ML of the year here.
 
Action Tail

Central Michigan -3 (.5 units)

Finally gave in on this one. Needed some noon action and Rexy and Tim like it, so I bit for small.
 
Louisville -6 2nd H (.5 units)

Check out the Box Score:

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
221.gif
</TD><TD>
97.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-7</TD><TD>3-6</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>173</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>131</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>4-9</TD><TD>13-17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>3.7</TD><TD>7.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>42</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>2.1</TD><TD>2.5</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>2-21</TD><TD>8-47</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>12:43</TD><TD>17:07</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The Ville is dominating the game in every aspect, but is committing stupid penalties. They would be up 14-0 if it wasn't for a last second 73 yard touchdown by Pitt. I think Ville continues to pound and pulls away in the second. If not, they go score for score and my over has a chance of hitting, so this is a little bit of a hedge in my mind.
 
MOOSE ALERT: Pitt fumbles on the Ville 4 yard line and fails to send the game into OT. Kills my damn Over. Bullshit.

MOOSE #2 ALERT: Iowa St returns a miralce pass interception for a TD, to possibly screw my Mizzou 1st H play.....

:(
 
Not chasing these. Got good numbers finally on these totals that I have been waiting on.....

UVA/NC State UNDER 44 (2 units)

Rice/Marshall OVER 67 (2 units)

Rice +9 (4 units total now)

Middle Tennessee St -12.5 (4 units)
 
HOLY SHIT.

Rice is covering with 3:00 to go, kicks the onside, and allows Marshall to recover and score to blow the backdoor cover.....absolutely amazing.....

Can I get moosed anymore???
 
Absolutely crazy, insane, day.

Couple mooses, bad beats, bad plays, and whatnot.

Hammered all of my big plays, and turned a horrible day into a winner.

5-7-1 +4.3 units on sides......hitting all 4 big plays.....
3-4 + 2.8 units on 2nd Halves... hitting all three big plays.....

8-11-1 +7.1 units today, whew.........
 
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