Ramble's CFB Week 8 Leans/Plays (Possible GOY - Feedback Needed)

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Saturday: 13-5 +18.1 units
Overall: 35-30-2 +1.1 units

Went 13-5 on Saturday for +18.1 units. If the Tulsa game would have gone over (Tulsa fumbled about to score, went under by 2 friggin points) I would have had an even better day. However, I am now up a little change on the year, and I'm extremely happy with that considering the craziness that has gone on lately. I'm going to stick with my formula for last week and just post leans right now, may not post my official plays until saturday......

Sunday Night:

Nevada @ Boise St -14 (1st H) (.5 units) :(
Nevada +11 2nd H (.5 units) :D


Saturday:

Game of the Year:
Troy -17 (-120) (2 units)
Troy -18 (10 units)

South Florida -2.5 (1 unit)
New Mexico -8.5 (2 units)
Buffalo +3.5 (1 unit)
Tulsa +3 (1 unit)
East Carolina -5 (3 units)
UAB +13 (1 unit)



Leans:

Buffalo +4.5
Memphis +1.5
East Carolina -4
New Mexico -7
Idaho +9.5
Troy -17.5 (played)
Ul Monroe -12.5
Southern Miss -4
Penn St -8 (removed)
LSU -10 (removed, maybe play in a teaser)
Uconn +3.5
Kansas -4 (removed)

Those are just initial thoughts. Lemme know what you think. :shake:
 
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RambleOn said:
Sunday Night:

Nevada @ Boise St -14 (1st H) (.5 units)

Boise St has been playing good defense, and jumps out on opponents early. They have led at half by 7, 18, and 35 their last three games. Now Nevada comes in with a young QB who has to get it together on the road on the Smurf Turf, and he's not going to be able to throw on Boise's D like he did on Fresno's. I'm hoping for a 21-3 first half for Boise here I guess.
Click to expand...

Well, another moose in a weekday game, under two minutes. Boise up 14 and give up a blown coverage TD with 1:50 to go, lmao.

Nevada +11 2nd H (.5 units)

If I get both halves wrong, then so be it, but if Boise isn't going to play D (8th best in country in yards allowed before this game), then I'll take a shot with Nevada to get my money back.
 
RambleOn said:
Well, another moose in a weekday game, under two minutes. Boise up 14 and give up a blown coverage TD with 1:50 to go, lmao.

Nevada +11 2nd H (.5 units)

If I get both halves wrong, then so be it, but if Boise isn't going to play D (8th best in country in yards allowed before this game), then I'll take a shot with Nevada to get my money back.
Click to expand...

Easy winner. 1-1 on the night, congrats to Nevada backers as they are on the verge of winning it here in 3 OT.
 
Thanks Dmoney.

I didn't lost my card until I was 3-1 on the day. I don't know what it was, but I thought I was jinxing myself posting so I waited until Saturday. Will probably post late this week two...superstitious now. Hopefully I'll do well again.
 
Homerism aside because I don't bet with my heart. Normally I would say lay off the Bulls on Thursday but I can't. This team is so focused right now it's sick. The have an excellent motivator and leader in Jim Leavitt who has preached to this team to take it one game at a time. They have. I went to the UCF game on Saturday and saw a difference in this team this week than last week. They are firing on all cylinders at the moment and their defense IMO is top three in the country. They have so much speed, not to mention Selvie leads the nation in sacks. As far as the game on Thursday, I assume Rutgers will get some love this week and that is good. USF still doesn't get the respect they deserve probably because they don't play in the Big One (OhSt) or SEC. This is a solid football team with confidence. Last year USF should've beat Rutgers at home but to me it was a learning experience with such a young team. Rutgers is no pushover especially at home. I will say this: Rutgers will be USF's toughest game this season. Yes Cin and Lou are still on their schedule but they are at home. Rutgers has a solid runnning game with Rice. Teel is the X factor this week. He has to have a big game for Rutgers to pull the upset. As of right now, I am leaning heavily at USF -3. I will have more thoughts this week. Great weekend.
 
ATP - Thanks for the thoughts, bro. I definitely think Rutgers could pull the upset, especially being a dog on Thursday night. For some reason though, I don't think it's going to happen this time. I'm not making it a huge play, but I will be on the Bulls.
 
GAME OF THE YEAR!!!!!!

North Texas @ Troy -17 (-120) (2 units), Troy -18 (6 units)

First play for me this week, and it might be my biggest of the week, because I plan on adding to it as the week progresses. Strangely, it's one of the few big favorites that I like. This game has blowout written all over it, guys.

Let's go with Troy, first. Troy comes into this game 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 ATS at home. What many might have missed is that Troy is a hair away from being a perfect 6-0 ATS - their only 2 ATS losses came on the road at Florida and at Fla Int, missing the covers by a combined 3 points total. Troy is 24th in total offense in the nation, averaging 454 yards a game. They are 90th in total defense, but are good at not turning the ball over, at 17th in the country in Turnover margin at +1 a game. At home, Troy is only allowing 15 points per game, while scoring 32. To top it off, Troy is 7-3 ATS their last 10.

North Texas, however, is a disastrous team. They are 1-5, and a respectable 3-3 ATS. North Texas does not play defense - they are LAST in the nation in yards allowed, giving up an astounding 526 yards per game. They also do not protect the ball well - they are in the bottom 15 in the nation in turnover margin at -1.17 a game. Their road games have been attrocious this year - allowing 79 to Oklahoma, 45 to SMU, 66 to Arkansas, and 38 to UL Lafayette! North Texas is 0-9 ATS last nine against teams with a winning record!

The situation here is perfect too. North Texas is coming of a SU underdog win as 7.5 pt dogs at home against UL Monroe. Don't go thinking they are turning the program around, however. They somehow got on the plus side of the turnover margin in this game, and benefited from 3 miracle plays in the first half: two interceptions returned for TD's (20 and 76 yards), and a 99 passing TD! The rest of the game they were outscored by UL Monroe 21-10, but held on for the victory. After that performance, they should come back down to earth here. Also, there is a possible lookahead to a home game in which they host Middle Tennessee State - a team that blanked them 35-0 last year. Undoubtedly, they are planning for their revenge!

The history between these two teams also sets up this play. Troy won by 8 last year in this matchup, and by 3 the year before. Because of the closeness of this series, I think the line is a little lower than it should be. I think it should be at least 24, and I think Troy would cover that number as well..

Bottom line is: we have a bad team in North Texas, off a SU dog win, who is absolutely putrid on defense and should get torched by the 24th best offense in the country.


Other Added Thoughts and Trends:

*This is Troy's Homecoming, and they've had two weeks to prepare.

*North Texas is 6-12 ATS (33%) as an away underdog of 10.5 or more the last 5 years.


:shake:
 
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good luck with troy this week.

with you on south florida, should stifle rutgers rush offense .. meaning teel will have to beat us .. i like that scenario.
 
Just realized that Troy is off a bye and this is their Homecoming as well! Jesus Christ, this is my GOY now, no doubt. There is no way in hell North Texas hangs within 20 in this one. Spread is off guys, pound it!
 
good luck this week ramble...I was kind of leaning Kansas way, any reason why you removed as a possible play? I think this team continues to get no respect.
 
Vegas, Aztec, Hunt - thanks, guys! BoL to ya!

Can anyone take the other side and tell me why North Texas might cover?
 
OK, I'll try. Most of my counter would be related to the NT coach. Todd Dodge is a winner/hates losing more than the usual cliche. His record at Southlake Carroll was phenomenal. He left a sweet position and is very motivated to build a winning program at NT. He is learning the college game. Based on past success he is a quick learner. He is a great motivator.

That's about it as I think he is going to need one or at least two more years to get the recruits, but I think he will get them. Mark it down, NT will be a good ML dog in 2008 and 2009, hopefully not this week ! I don't think they have enough players now and I'm on Troy with you. GL
 
Ramble - You already know I jumped on Troy as well as soon as the line came out and you did a great job of covering all of the key points in this one. I will give the whole devil's advocate thing a shot here, as I do the same thing with each and every one of my plays anyway, so he is the "conversation I had with myself" before I made this a play...

The only thing that could cause trouble would be if Dodge decided to mix things up a bit and run the ball a little more than he has so far this year, as they have actually been pretty decent when they have gone this route. The stats won't show it because they hardly ever do so, but after watching them a few times this year, they could actually move the ball pretty well if they would balance out their attack a little more, as defenses are basically dropping 7 or 8 guys back, which makes for solid 8 to 10 yard gains for the backs once they get pass the first line of defense.

Now, I don't think it is in his nature to go to more of a balanced attack, because he is gonna stick with the girl he brought to the dance so to speak, but if he did, the cover could be in jeopardy as Troy is horrible against the run for the most part, and adding a running game into the mix would of course chew up valuable clock time, which never helps when trying to cover a big number.

Ok, all done playing devil's advocate now, but these are all the types of things I consider before I make a play, and obviously since I jumped on Troy within 30 seconds of the open, I of course think this isn't a major worry. Best of luck this weekend!
 
CB Thanks, bro. Great analysis and I totally agree with everything you said. Let's hope North Texas is too concerned with MTSU to swtich the game plan up this week! :shake:
 
Added:

New Mexico -8.5 (2 units)

Mismatch here. San Diego St is one my fade list (5th Worst in Nation in Total Defense), so laying 8.5 doesn't really scare me. While New Mexico isn't a top tier offense (40th in Total Offense), they really showed last week that they can play some defense on the road (13th in Nation in Yards Allowed on the Road, 33rd Overall). I expect New Mexico to win this comfortably by 17.
 
Added:

Buffalo +3.5 (1 unit)

Another team playing against someone I like to fade in Syracuse. This bet is based on four things: 1) Line value, as this one should be closer to a PK, 2) Syracuse is an awful defensive team (9th Worst in Total Defense), 3) Syracuse is winless at home, and 4) Buffalo's momentum from it's two recent home wins should carry over into this game. Buffalo wins.
 
Added:

Tulsa +3 (1 unit)

I don't want to overanalyze last week - but after seeing what USF did to UCF, I think it's time to jump off the train. (I had USF). USF abused UCF, racking up 64 points, and allowing only 12. UCF is one of the worst in the nation in turnover margin, almost -2 a game, and has trouble sacking opposing QB's (average 2 a game almost). Tulsa's high powered offense is one that if they limit the turnovers, they will destroy most people they face. However, with all the passing, turnovers will happen. I love the matchup of Tulsa's offense against UCF's defense - I think UCF will continue their trend of being on the wrong side of the turnover margin, allowing Tulsa to score at will and win this game with relative ease.
 
Added:

East Carolina -5 (3 units)

East Carolina is going to stomp NC State. NC state is DEAD last in the nation in turnover margin, and sports an ATS record of 1-4. These two teams are heading in different directions, with ECU picking up steam, and NC State sucking it up. ECU has won 3 straight, but hasn't had that blow out victory yet. This is a perfect game for them to break out against an NC State team that although they have had a difficult schedule this year, have not been competetive in any of their games other than a 38-17 drubbing of......Wofford. East Carolina by 14+ easily.
 
I was looking at New mexico also, before i read this, nice to see someone else who doesnt mind laying road chalk. on paper this looks like a solid win for NM, my concern is SD won't give up and will continue to throw the ball for a possible backdoor. this is why i like mizzou, they just keep coming at ya. any other thoughts on the NM/SD game
thanks and BOL
 
Cash - glad you like it man. This play comes down to a couple factors for me. First, New Mexico is getting some line value (I have them laying -10 here). Wish I could have gotten the line at 7, but oh well. New Mexico is playing stellar defense, with all 11 players contributing equally in tackles. New Mexico has the clear advantage at QB as well - no comparison in Donovan Porterie and Kevin O'Connel. Another significant factor is that New Mexico won this game 41-17 last year. Bottom line is New Mexico plays great D on the road and should keep SD out of the red zone, and barring any crazy turnovers, this amounts to a comfortable win in my book. :shake:
 
Adding:

UAB +13 (1 unit)

Gut play here. Houston can't stop a damn soul on defense, so I think UAB should be fired up here. Saw Redbearde was considering this as a moneyline play, and I'm not far behind him in throwing down a little in hopes of an upset.
 
it looks like someone in the travel department made a mistake and uh is going ot have to fly into alabama and play on the same day. ridiculous. this should help your cause. keep in mind uab has given up over 500 yards to each of the following offenses.

michigan state
tulsa
fsu
tulane

in fact mississippi state was the only fbs team that has failed to reach 500 yards against them. houston is fast and explosive on offense as they demonstrated last week in getting more than 700 total yards of offense against rice and as they also demonstrated at oregon , at alabama .... etc ... no way uab can defend them if they show up. i loved the houston side until this travel problem arose... now more luke warm to it. Briles is a really good coach and if you go back to last year and what has transpired so far this year , you will see that this team makes excellent second half adjustments and performs late in games.

good luck this week ramble ,,,,, cept maybe this game.
 
Great thread so far...

Still am shocked that Troy opened 21 and was bet down to 17.5 that quick. Gave a nice number for yourself. Good luck this week..crush em again!
 
went huge on Troy. Also, Ramble, I think Texas is a strong bet. The team knows that the only way they have a chance at a BCS is an at large, which will be hard for them to get, but they know it is blowout or bust from here on out, and traditionally, mack browns teams come out smoking after the OU week, which was evident last week vs. ISU.

I truly believe (I go to UT) that McCoy turned this team around after the OU game. Apparently he went apeshit after the loss in the locker room and told the team, he is taking the job of the team leader and whoever wants to follow him get on board. Last weekend was Colt's best game of the season and he finally seemed like he was in a groove. The defense absolutely mauled ISU last week and I would say them and Baylor are pretty comparative when talking about talent, with ISU actually maybe having advantage. Texas could have put up 80 in that game last week and I expect this week to be no different.

Also, word I am hearing is Baylors starting QB may sit the game out due to a concussion he suffered against Kansas. Baylors back-up has NO experience and a team like Texas is not a team to start your career against. This team is starting to gel and Baylor is having a down year, compared to the past 3 years. Another factor is there will be just as much burnt orange there as green and gold. I could go on and on about why to bet texas. Mack Brown has averaged a 46 point winning margin the last 8 years blah blah blah. Go with the Horns.
 
Vegas - we shall see bro, we shall see.

Wolfpack - I hope so. ECU should roll here. :shake:

Steed :shake:

BAR I can hardly believe the line opened there and was bet down. I can see it for one reason alone: this series has been close - and laying 17+ in the Sunbelt can't really be that good of an idea in a general sense. However, every factor in this game points to a Troy blowout - bye week, homecoming, great offense against an absolutely putrid defense - a team that protects the ball against a turnover prone team, a team on the road that is 0-9 ATS against winning teams and 6-12 as a big dog......the only thing I see in NT's favor is the running angle, which Troy hasn't been good against, but if Troy gets out to a lead, I see NT abandoning the run and failing on the comeback trail. :shake:

VY: Nice analysis on Texas. I heard about the Baylor QB, and have been thinking that this is a nice spot for Texas. Early in the year I just got a bad taste in my mouth for them, so I have been loathe to back them lately. However, especially if Baylor's QB is out, I may have to lay at least a unit on them this weekend and see what happens.
 
Now that I have heard about Houston's travel problems, I like UAB even more. I know this team can score, they put up 30 against Tulsa in a game I had Tulsa -18 for a big bet. This team still has some pride and I'll be laying a tiny tiny morsel on the ML just to say I did it. :)
 
Really like it, too. These crappy ass teams usually do very poorly after finally winning a game!!!
 
Bob's writeup:

2 Star Selection
**TROY STATE (-19.5) 49 North Texas 21
12:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Troy is the class of the Sun Belt Conference and they should beat the Mean Green easily if they are properly focused. Troy is just average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but that’s very good for a Sun Belt team and the Trojans should score at will against a horrendous North Texas defense that’s allowed 7.3 yppl to teams that would average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Troy’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average, but that is also good my SBC standards and the Trojans are actually very good defending the pass (5.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defense), which is what counts against a North Texas attack that averages 52 pass plays per game. The Eagles are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’re even worse since freshman Giovanni Vizza was given the starting quarterback job. The Mean Green have averaged 30 points in two games with Vizza at quarterback, but they’ve averaged only 5.4 yppl against two teams (ULL and ULM) that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl and 39 points to an average division 1A team. North Texas also has horrendous special teams and Troy should dominate this game if they are focused. My only problem with taking Troy is that they are 0-6 ATS against conference opponents after a bye week, but that trend is not as significant as the negative 43-100-2 ATS road letdown situation that applies to North Texas, who is off an upset win. I’ll take Troy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.
 
Nice work sir.... Was against you but at +24.... guess it didn't matter... when Dr. Bob and Billy line up it's like beating your head against the wall trying to beat them.... you getting the very BEST of the number makes it even sweeter when they are on your side...

Good work, sir...
 
Now that was how it should work. When I saw both of us so strongly on Troy right out of the gate last week, I knew it was going to be money. Too bad that is the only play I think we have actually agreed on in 8 weeks haha, but hey as long as we are both making money that is all that counts! Continued success with the large plays down the home stretch, as you are doing a great job adding significant value to the forum, so thanks!
 
Thanks, guys.

Feels good when your GOY comes in that easy.

However, it would have been a great day had I not gone 0-6 -9.9 units otherwise! Wow.

So, a great day turns into a mediocre one. 2-7 on the week total......

....1-6 yesterday +2.1 units, so I'll take it. Was out of town this weekend, so I was away from the computer and gambling in general, so didn't get to add other plays or halftimes like I usually do, nothing that can be helped and I'll try to come back strong next week. :shake:
 
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