Ramble's CFB Week 6

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Last week: 1-7-1 (-19 units)

Overall Sides/Totals: 20-15-1 (-9 units)


What a horrible Saturday. I didn't win a single game - and I promise you I was actually worse than the record I posted, but we won't get into that. Good thing is that I was actually up 28 units before yesterday (unposted plays), and I actually lost 31 units on Saturday. So I'm really only down 3 units but my posted record will remain what it is.

Onto this week:

Wed:

Rice/So.Miss Under 28 1st H (-120) (1 unit) PUSH - moose in last 3 minutes.

Rice +8.5 2nd H (1 unit) :( - another joke, moosed in last quarter.

Thurs:

Kentucky +4 (-120) (1 unit) :(
SC PK 2nd H (.5 unit) :D


Saturday:

LSU -9 (2 units)

Oklahoma -9.5 (1 unit)

UCF -3 (1 unit)

Houston +11 (1 unit) :D

Auburn -7 (-120) (1 unit) :D

Tulsa -3 (1 unit)

UGA PK (1 unit) :(

Florida/LSU Under 49 (2 units)

Miami -6.5 (-120) (.5 units) :(

Akron +8.5 (.5 unit)





Final card. Got a test next Tuesday, so I don't need to be dicking around betting on games all week. Hope the weekend goes better than last weekend and this week! :shake:
 
Last edited:
GL this week Ramble. On the Central Florida with you.

Interested as to why you lean to LT, as I am close to playing Mississippi there.
 
Florida Gators @ LSU -9

This is more of a gut play than anything. Don't you think the entire betting public is going to see Florida getting 10 points and jump on the Gators? With this line being as high as it is, I can see that the books are favoring the Tigers in this one, and for good reason. I'd rather be on the book's side in this one. I also love this game because of LSU's D. LSU is allowing a measly 6.4 ppg this year, and my friends, that is just sick. They are so fast and just so good. Auburn held Florida scoreless for the first half IN THE SWAMP last game, and as we all know, beat them. Now Florida has to go on the road and play in Death Valley in a night game, against a team that has revenge on their minds from last year. Couple those points with the fact that Florida has only covered 3 of their last 14 conference games, and you'll see that Florida has been getting too much respect line-wise in the SEC, and should fall prey to the Tigers here. Score somewhere around 21-7, so I gotta take a look at the Under here as well, which is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
 
Kentucky Wildcats +4 @ South Carolina

The Kentucky Wildcats come into this game 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky's QB Andre Woodson is sick - he has thrown for 1309 yards and 16 TD's, while only throwing ONE interception. At first glance, it looks like South Carolina's strength is their pass defense, allowing only 106 yards a game in passing yards at home. However, the 3 of the teams they have played at home have no name QB's and weak passing attacks anyway (Miss St, SCSU, and ULLaf). They haven't played a team yet with the options and speed that Kentucky is going to bring. I also like the fact that these two teams have played each other every year going back to 1997 on the matchup page I am looking at, and the last time Kentucky won SU was in 1999 - 8 years ago. This is Kentucky's year to win this game SU. Finally, in my opinion, South Carolina's ATS record of 3-1 this year is deceiving. LSU covered the entire game against them, and barring that stupid flea flicker play, LSU would have pulled out the ATS cover, probably. Also, Miss St hung with S.Carolina tough until giving the ATS cover away late. I know there are many here high on S.Carolina, but from what I have seen, Kentucky should remain undefeated.
 
Oklahoma Sooners -9.5 @ Texas

Come on, now. Texas is a shell of the team it has been in the past. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10, and now to make things worse, Colt McCoy may not be 100% this weekend because of a concussion he suffered last week. Texas has won this game the last two years, so expect Oklahoma to unleash the fury and bounce back from their upset loss last week.
 
UCF -3 @ ECU

This is a game that UCF should win, bottom line. ECU is not a bad team, though. However, they are coming off an emotional win at Houston and its hard to see them putting up the same effort here. UCF is 9th in rushing offense, and should run all over the ECU D who is pretty awful in rushing yards allowed (94th), passing yards allowed (141th), and total yards allowed (125). East Carolina tends to cover their conference games (8-3 ATS last 11), but I think they drop this one here, because I don't see them winning SU.
 
My computer says LSU -12.5, so I already have reason there to wager. But then you look at the specifics of this game and each player, and this has the makings of a big LSU victory. Have you watched Tebow's movements with the ball? He does this little stutter move with his arms when holding the ball... that shit won't fly against the fastest and best defense in the country! That 1.5 seconds he hesitates stuttering with the ball will be the difference in him getting the ball off and him getting sacked. Dorsey will frustrate Tebow and the UF offense as a whole.
 
Apolous There you go, bro. :shake:

Temujin Thanks, man. It will certainly be a close one, so I'll take the 4. :shake:
 
Blue Chip Exactly. And LSU opened at 7.5 per LVSC and obviously was quickly nailed to 9 where it opened offshore. If the smart money thinks they cover 7.5, then I am happy with 9.5. :shake:
 
LSU and UCF just missed making my leans lists. UCF was looking ahead to this game last week while ECU was busy preparing for and beating Houston.

Good luck this week Ramble
 
like the plays, ramble...except maybe kentucky. but i'll definitely be joining you on LSU. it's at 7.5 now...and i'm holding out hope for a 7...or even 6, if a certain doctor gets a hold of UF.
anyways, GL this week.
 
Vanderbilt Dicsussion

Guys, this line is down to 7.5, and could go lower. I think the Commodores are getting a little too much respect here from the public. Vanderbilt is 0-10 SU against Auburn the last 10 years, as well as 0-5 ATS on the road at Auburn the last 5. Granted, this isn't the same Auburn team that we have seen in years past, but to be fair, it also isn't the same Vanderbilt team from the Cutler era. This will be Vanderbilt's first road game and they haven't really been tested this year in their wins (beating Eastern Michigan, Ole Miss, and Richmond). The only real competition they have faced is Alabama, in which they lost 24-10 and lost ATS as well. Auburn is coming off two straights wins and finally looks to have some confidence. I am really considering adding Auburn at 7 or under.....thoughts?
 
AU hopes to avoid letdown after big win

Monday, October 01, 2007
By EVAN WOODBERY
Sports Reporter
AUBURN -- On Saturday, Auburn proved that its youth-laden roster could go into a hostile environment and deliver a shocking upset.

On Sunday, workers were hosing down the paper-festooned trees at Toomer's Corner after Auburn's 20-17 win over defending national champion Florida.

This week, the Tigers will try to show that the same youngsters can quickly move past their season-changing win and focus on renewing their chances to compete for an SEC title.

"That's always a question mark," said Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville. "We talked today about how to get over it."

Auburn took a 14-0 first-half lead on then-No. 4 Florida Saturday night, watched the Gators tie the game at 17-17 in the fourth quarter and then won it when freshman kicker Wes Byrum hit a 43-yard field goal as time expired. He actually had to make the kick twice after Florida coach Urban Meyer called timeout seconds before the first kick.

It marked the second straight year that the Tigers had beaten the Gators and gave Meyer his first home loss in three years at Florida. The Gators were a three-touchdown favorite entering the game.

The win marks a sweeping change in perception for Auburn (3-2, 1-1 SEC), which has now won two in a row after losing back-to-back games for the first time since 2003. The Tigers play Vanderbilt (3-1, 1-1) Saturday at 11:30 a.m. at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

"For a couple weeks, they couldn't get anyone to talk to them, and now they're the talk of the campus," Tuberville said. "If we think about (the win) too long, we'll start this thing over again next week, talking about how we could have played better if we'd gotten the game out of our minds."

It's a tricky tightrope for coaches, who must take advantage of the momentum built by Saturday's big win while making sure players don't ignore the challenges ahead.

"It's always great to win a big game, especially on the road, but it's worse if you don't get it off your mind and lose the next week because you weren't focused," Tuberville said.

Players who spoke to the media on Sunday were clearly speaking from the same coach-approved script, but several said the strong week of practice leading up to the Florida game can be copied during the rest of the year.

"I think that (enthusiasm) was established during the week of practice," said freshman offensive tackle Ryan Pugh, who was playing in his first college road game. "There wasn't a doubt in our mind that we were going to win that football game before we went in there."

Pugh believes the enthusiasm from the victory has ramped up the team's confidence and improved team unity.

"It was almost like a family at the end (of the game), with everybody coming together," he said. "I think we expect big things to happen the rest of the year."

Offensive line coach Hugh Nall expressed only mild enthusiasm for his unit's play, preferring to talk about the progress still to be made. Tuberville and offensive coordinator Al Borges did the same.

"It's never as good as it seems and never as bad as it seems," Pugh said. "(The Florida game) definitely wasn't as good as it seemed after watching the film. Now we got to get back to work and keep getting better and keep it rolling."


Looks like this Auburn team is starting to come together. This article should answer any questions about team chemistry or whether the Tigers will have a let down this weekend. I think Auburn comes out amped at home and beats a Vanderbilt on their first real game away from home.
 
Adding:

Houston +11 (-120)(1 unit)

Alabama is in a state of disarray right now and I don't think they should be laying two possessions against this Houston team. John Parker Wilson looks lost to me and heir defense is suspect for the big play, which Houston can certainly make. I hope Case is ready to go for this weekend but I'm sure he will be.
 
Fondy No shit, man. You lose 31 units in a day and tell me how badly you feel. I freakin went 0-14 for God's sake. I was shit-canned, and deservedly so.

Tide - Thanks......I guess?

Aztec Thanks bro, you too.
 
Additions waiting to be added - guys, give me some input on these....

Auburn -7: Vanderbilt doesn't have enough scoring options to go to Auburn and win this one. They are 0-10 SU and O-5 ATS at Auburn in recent history. This line has just fallen far enough to give me great value on Auburn. I think Auburn should be laying close to 14, and I think they have found themselves.

Florida/LSU UNDER 49: Someone explain this to me? LSU allows 6.4 ppg at home this year. Florida is floundering. Over 7 TD's in this affair? If Florida hopes to hang here, they are going to have to match LSU's D play for play. I think LSU should win this one 24-10 or something of that nature.

UAB +20 : This line is ridiculous! This is going to be a slop-fest of a game. MSU is down to third string QB, and UAB's QB is out too. We saw UAB put up points against Tulsa, albeit against a much worse defense, but still. How is MSU going to put up a bunch of points here to cover 3 TD's?

Tulsa -3 : This game falls into my "Overreaction" or bounce back theory. Tulsa underperforms last week and is now only laying a couple against a team it should beat. Similar defenses here, but Tulsa's offense, although it sputtered last week, has blowout potential in every play. This one looks solid.

Give me some input.
 
Since no one responded, I just added them!

Auburn -7 (-120) (1 unit)

Tulsa -3 (1 unit)

UGA PK (1 unit)

Florida/LSU Under 49 (2 units)
 
hey man, wish I could of responded earlier, been real busy this week.

I really love your Saturday card, hate your Thursday Card :smiley_acbe:and last week beat the piss out of me too.


You think Houston creeps up a little more? I have been waiting all week. I am still thinking about UCF. I like LSU a lot and you make a real good point about that under, def something I will give a look to. GL this wkend
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
You think Houston creeps up a little more? I have been waiting all week. I am still thinking about UCF. I like LSU a lot and you make a real good point about that under, def something I will give a look to. GL this wkend
Click to expand...


ETG Thanks a ton, bro. I know you hate the Thursday card, and I could very well be kicking myself.

As far as Houston, I don't see the line really going anywhere. If you look at the last two times these teams have played (both at Alabama), Houston got smoked. The die hard SEC/Bama fans will keep this line around 10 or higher IMO.

I figured out of UCF and Tulsa, both laying 3 on the road, at least one will cover, and both have a good chance. I think both SHOULD win the game, and having both on my card is a safety net in case one doesn't cover.

For that UNDER, I wish I would have been around Tuesday, as I think it opened at 53.5!!! Wow, I seriously would have made that an enormous play. And, to tell the truth, it realy hasn't moved past too many key numbers (lost 52 which is 7 TD's and a fg, but still got 49). I think LSU handles business.

Good luck this weekend. :shake:
 
Gamble -

Redenovich =
reallyhappy.gif
 
Hedging my bet:

SC PK 2nd H (1/2 unit)

If I win this, I halve my losses. If I lose it, means Kentucky outscores them by at least 3 probably, meaning I could win this and push my game bet. Nice opportunity to hedge here I think.
 
Not gonna lie - Kentucky is the better team here......

Sans 4 turnovers from Woodson, Kentucky would be easily winning this affair.....
 
Won my second half bet, big fucking deal. Now 1-16-1 since last friday, hoping this weekend will bring just a tiny bit of luck.
 
I love the Tulsa play, both have pretty bad defenses, but Tulsa's offense thrives against teams like UTEP, and is much more explosive that that of the Miner's as well. I really just cant even see UTEP keeping it close, but we will find out tomorrow. I feel almost too safe about only laying -3, just seems too low for what will be such a high scoring affair. Kinda scares me

BOL :cheers:
 
glad to see you hit the 2nd 1/2 play bro! sorry i missed your reply, i had the OVER for the 2nd 1/2.

let's get some back tonight:) liking the ville right now.
 
RambleOn said:
Not gonna lie - Kentucky is the better team here......

Sans 4 turnovers from Woodson, Kentucky would be easily winning this affair.....
Click to expand...

hmmm....don't feel like getting into this really.


Saunders fumbles a sure TD, trade off is Woodson giving up the fumble for a td, it nets out, it should of been 7-0 gamecocks

Woodson throwing a lateral returned for a TD is a result of 1)pressure and 2)bad decision making.

Woodson throwing a pick in the endzone was a result of 1)pressure and 2)bad decision making.

Little coughing up the punt is just bad.

I will say that for the 1st 25minutes, UK was OUTPLAYED and it was tied 10-10.

They got their 1st field goal from getting the ball at the 40 and than a 15yd personal foul, they were handed the field goal.

Now, yes, UK killed themselves with turnovers but this is a team who was +7 in turnovers on their way to 5-0. They had to go on the road to a hostile environment, they were on the road only 1 time previous to this. ESPN hyped the shit out of Woodson and UK, I agree he is a very good QB, but he was outpassed by a RS Frosh. They touted his 16:1 ratio of TD-Int and how good of a qb he is, he still is, and he is a top 3 QB in CFB in my mind, but the defense forced him into mistakes.

UK won the 3rd quarter but they shouldn't have won the game last night.
 
ETG -

I played an unposted Teaser of LSU -.5/Under 54.5 that is think is literally free money. I decided to not post teasers because I do so badly on them - but I really like that play. So I have a total of 6 units combined on my LSU, Under play, and the Teaser, and although that line is awesome, I don't know if I can justify adding more to that game.
 
I lied. Adding:

Miami -6.5 (-120) (.5 units)

Akron +8.5 (.5 unit)

Getting good line value on both of these because of their poor performances last week. Like both to bounce back. Also like Akron because of their prowess in the turnover department - they have a +7 margin which means they've cause 7 more turnovers then they have allowed.
 
Oh, Miami, what a dismal performance.


In other news, no one wanted to listen to be about Vandy getting smoked today. :)
 
Guess I'll never learn........... goign down in glory or back on my feet.....

LSU -7 (-110) (4 units)

Line dropped, I had to for fuck's sake!
 
Another horrible day.......something has gotta give........

Back with thoughts tomorrow...... what a weird season.....
 
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