Ramble's CFB Week 5

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Last week: 4-4 +.1 unit

Overall Sides/Totals: 19-8 (+10.1 units)


Lost my first GOW last week on FLA. I acknowledged that it was a horrible spot for FLA, but I thought talent would override that. Florida really looked awful to begin the game, missed some INT chances and a fumble recover, and didn't do what I said they would do to cover (stop the big play, as Ole Miss had two of them for scores). Definite result of a sandwich spot, and I will give more credence to these situations in the future.

Going to keep a lookout for some totals as well, as I was 4-0 the last two weeks on those.

Going to put plays only in this window, with writeups to follow in a subsequent window:

Played:

Penn St -3 (1 unit)

Rutgers -13 (1 unit)

Oregon -5 (1 unit)

So Miss +10 (1 unit)

Tulsa -18 (5 units)

MSU/S.Carolina UNDER 42 (1 unit)

Arkansas St -4 (1 unit)


Leans/Contemplations:

Arkansas St -3 or better (at 4 now)
Buffalo/Ball St Over (low 50's???)
South Carolina/MSU Under (38 or so??)
Ole Miss/UGA Under (46???)


Will add plays as I finalize. :shake:
 
Last edited:
GL this week Ramble, on Rutgers as well. Thought NMSU could hang with Auburn, just too many mistakes in the 2H. Atleast you ended out with a little cash last week.
 
Good luck this weeknd man. I have the SC/MSU under on my mind as well, I am expecting to see a line like 44 or something. I am leaning on SoMiss, think they are not getting enough respect here but this is also something I would like to have at +11.5 like it was before. I ma still undecided on RU but it is RU or nothing for me.
 
GL this week Ramble. already on Rutgers and Penn State. No opinion on the other 2 so hope you hit em all bro
 
Adding:

Tulsa -18 (4 units)

This one is a no-brainer for me. UAB is an automatic fade when going up against a team with an offense like Tulsa's. Last year, Tulsa's home wins came by an average of 24.5 pts. Tulsa's QB Paul Smith has already thrown for 1,111 yards, 10 TD's, and 4 interceptions. He should be able to pick apart this Blazer D that is playing it's third road game of the year, against a tough conference foe that should win the Western Division of the C-USA. Tulsa in a laugher.
 
RambleOn said:
Adding:

Tulsa -18 (4 units)

This one is a no-brainer for me. UAB is an automatic fade when going up against a team with an offense like Tulsa's. Last year, Tulsa's home wins came by an average of 24.5 pts. Tulsa's QB Paul Smith has already thrown for 1,111 yards, 10 TD's, and 4 interceptions. He should be able to pick apart this Blazer D that is playing it's third road game of the year, against a tough conference foe that should win the Western Division of the C-USA. Tulsa in a laugher.
Click to expand...


I got Houston winning the West but yea I like this side a lot
 
i agree with you here on your POW. I really like tulsa as well, although i really wanted 17. I was contemplating buying it down but i then realized it would cost too much. I am still on the fence on tulsa. GL
 
I will most likely be on Tulsa, but here's the devil's advocate point of view. UAB can actually run the ball a little. They didnt have their best rusher for the MSU game. They ran for 211 on Alcorn State (I know its Alcorn State), but they also ran for 119 against Florida State. Tulsa' rush D has been nothing short of awful this year. UAB has also had 2 weeks to prepare for the game.

All that being said, I think Tulsa wins this game going away. UAB has no answer for Paul Smith, and Tulsa should roll 50+ in this one...
 
Nice card Ramble...thoughts on Cal/UOre? I put this up in redbearde's thread, but do you think starting classes this week will help or hurt Oregon?
 
Frankie - don't be on the fence. UAB doesn't have the defensive depth to hang with Tulsa in this one. Tulsa is coming off of a loss at home, and will be looking to take some frustration out in their conference opener. Blowout city.

ETG - Tulsa won't have to stop anyone - because UAB's QB is garbage (3 TD's/3 INT's this year). Don't worry. :shake:

Mets - exactly, no matter the D, Tulsa is going to score on UAB and they'll have to answer.

BAR - thanks, bro. Should be another routine weekend for you as well.

Rak - Thanks, bro. I don't think classes starting are going to have any effect on Oregon's players. If anything, it will help, because they won't be stressing about homework and tests. I'm a big advocate of revenge games (see Tennessee @ Cal Week 1), and I think Oregon gets one at home here.

Adding:

MSU/S. Carolina Under 42 (1 unit) (-130)

Yes, I know. I don't usually buy points on totals, actually I can't remember every doing it - this may be the first time, and definitely the first time I've bought a full point. However, I thought this line would open below 40, so I think there is a TON of value in getting this at 42, and I had class tonight so I missed the opening numbers at BM.
 
Final add, barring any half time plays:

Arkansas St -4 (1 unit)

Wanted this line to drop, but doesn't look like it will happen. Memphis just isn't a good team and I might fade them on the road every game this year from here on out.
 
Quick Tulsa writeup:

As you may remember, Tulsa got beat pretty badly last friday night at home against Oklahoma, on National TV. Now, for their their third straight home game, they host the UAB Blazers is the conference home opener. Tulsa is going to take out there frustrations from last game on this young, inexperienced UAB team. If you haven't heard of Tulsa's QB Paul Smith - now you have. Already this year, he was thrown for 1,111 yards, completed 66% of his passes, and sports a 10/4 TD/INT ratio. His coaches love him because he's an amazing player, but also had this to say:

"He's an incredible leader. When you've got a quarterback who can manage the game and is smart and doesn't put the ball in jeopardy to go with a great defense, you have a chance to win football games." Todd Graham, Tulsa Head Coach

By "managing games", Graham means leading the up-tempo, no huddle offense that Tulsa employs every week. With the loss of standout senior Courtney Tennial at running back, that offense has to be even better every week. And Smith has done it.

Last week, in their blowout loss to Oklahoma, Smith passed for 354 yards and TD's, but Oklahoma's defense stole 2 INT's on their way to the win, and Tulsa could never get anything going on the ground.

This week, against UAB, there might not be a single defensive stop by UAB. UAB is a team decimated by players leaving (28 seniors gone), with only 4 starters returning on each side of the ball. Their D-line only returns one starter, the linebacking core is young, and the secondary only returns two starters.

Simply put, UAB is not going to be able to keep up with Tulsa. Their secondary is thin and inexperienced, and should bend at Paul Smith's will this weekend. As far as their offense goes, UAB's QB Sam Hunt isn't anyone to get excited about. This year, he has only thrown for 528 yards, completing 50% of his passes en route to a measly 3/2 TD/INT ratio. Although Tulsa's defense is not their strong point, they are not going to have to be strong against this weak UAB offense. The only plus UAB has on their side is that they have been able to do a little with the running game this year, and will try to slow the game down and control the clock against Tulsa's no huddle offense. Also, UAB has had two weeks to prepare, so they may have had time to come up witha gameplan to stop Paul Smith and Co.

The Line

The line opened at 18.5, and I grabbed it as soon as it came out. It is now over 21 and up to 23 I think in some spots. Luckily, Tulsa got drubbed by Oklahoma, and UAB hung with an underperforming Florida State Team, giving us the soft number of 18.5 on open. The move to 21 represents a shift up to where the line should have opened, in my opinion. I like this game big up to 21.

The Bet: Tulsa -18 (5 units)

UAB: 20 Tulsa: 55
 
Great write up, I'll be riding this one on Tulsa.

My game to watch this week and hasn't been written up is Baylor +16 1/2
Things are really falling apart in Aggieland, A&M with better athletes at more positions but Baylor has improved a lot, has recruited well, have a good QB and MLB both lead well on each side of the ball. Baylor is always up for this game. Coaching definitely favors Baylor (Fran is plain awful), hopefully they hang tough early to take the crowd out as much as can happen in COllege Station, I see Baylor hanging within 2 TDs, and I even am WAY out on a limb with a small ! bet on the Baylor ML at +600 (early line). For disclosure, I'm a Texas fan but even my Aggie friends are truly throwing in the towel this season, want Fran gone, several concerned about an outright Baylor win, and the front page in College Stations paper yesterday had a picture of a frat house huge banner saying "FIRE FRAN".

My bet Baylor +16 1/2

very small on Baylor ML (+550)
 
Thanks guys.

1-1-1 going into the weekend.....

Adding:

LSU/Tulane 1st Q Over 10.5 (2 units) (-135)

Thought I was done for the weekend as far as adding games go - but I saw this in Renew's thread and I love it. Absolutely no way LSU doesn't score 1 TD in the 1st Q, so all I need is 3.5 more than that. LSU should get 14 here easy. I love this play.
 
Fuck, that was a quick loss on LSU/Tulane.

Adding:

Maryland +18 (1 unit): Middling my Rutgers bet, which I have at -13. I consider 13,14,17 and 18 pretty key numbers, so I have a couple good chances to win both if this is right around the number.
 
GL on that middle attempt. :shake:

lots of people must be having that same idea considering how much that line has moved...
 
Adding:

Tulsa -22.5 (4 units)

Like Rex said, this one is either close game or blowout by Tulsa. I'm getting the shit kicked out of me today, so I'm going big on this one. 9 units total on Tulsa.
 
Tulsa 2nd H -11 (3 units)

Have no idea what has happened, but I do know that this is giving me -18 for the game and I think that Tulsa should cover that. I've already committed to this game, so bring it on UAB.
 
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