Rambles CFB Week 4

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Week 1: 1-1 (.1 units)
Week 2: 3-0 +3 units
Week 3: 3-4-2 (1.4 units)
Overall: 7-5-2 +1.5 units

Last week could have been great. Push on S. Fla. Push on Clemson. Lose LSU by 3 points. Oh well, movin' on:

Definite plays: (will put 'locked in' once they are)

Kansas St -4 (locked in) LOSS
LSU/Auburn UNDER 37.5 (locked in)
Miss. St +8
Miss St./Ga Tech UNDER 37.5 (locked in)
CMU/Purdue OVER 63
Possible Plays:

Uconn -12 (tease?)
Rice OVER
Ole Miss -6.5 (tease?)
Toledo +7
Talk Me Offs:

Virginia Tech +2
Eastern Michigan +21 (elmininated)
Will put plays here and follow with some thoughts below. GL this week. :shake:
 
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I really like K-State in this spot. QB Josh Freeman has throw for 526 yards (75% completion rate) and 5 Touchdowns in his first two games. The games were against North Texas and Montana State, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this kid is GOOD. Junior college transfer Keithen Valentine is tearin up the turf with 104 yards on 25 carries. As far as the Ville goes, I don't trust them. They got beat down by Kentucky in their season opener. Brian Brohm, the top 3 receivers, and all the linebackers are gone. Hunter Cantwell was supposed to be a badass but he's thrown only 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this year already. The linebacking and secondary is weak - a secondary that allowed 251 passing yards per game last year. K-State are itching to prove themselves on national tv. This is their first mid-week regular season game since....1994. Yep, 1994. Plus, K-State is coming off a bye, and they are 12-4 SU off a bye since 1991. Love K-State here.
 
I will probably play the LSU/Auburn UNDER at most any number. This has 10-7 written all over it. Inexperienced QB's making their first road starts, coupled with the fact that it is an SEC conference game against a home team who has allowed 13 pts in three games and is astonishingly inept on offense. I honestly don't see how Auburn can win this game unless LSU beats themselves, so I may be on LSU as well.
 
interesting angle on the road team wanting the national exposure midweek. This is an important game for ksu recruiting .. at some point they have to start getting high school kids and not relying so heavily on juco transfers.

i like ksu too a little bit , but were one of the teams i didnt feel i had a good grasp of in offseason.

how good is ksu secondary ?
 
VK - I think they are gonna be okay. Allowed only 108 yards passing against Montana St and only 100 against north Texas. Obviously not two powerhouses but you get the feeling that they know what they are doing. I know safety Courtney Herndon is pretty damn good. Against Montana St - he earned Co Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week with a fumble return for a touchdown, a blocked punt, an interception, 4 tackles and a pass breakup! Only problem is they are pretty small I think, averaging around 5'11"
 
GL ramble, leanin that way as well, and will probably lock in tomorrow on em

saw how inexperienced and inept that louisiville team was in the kentucky game.... and it showed

everyone is saying the senior cantwell is a sold QB as he learned from brohm but the kid was awful in week one, could not get the ball where it needed to be. was both overthrowing and underthrowing receivers.
 
RambleOn said:
VK - I think they are gonna be okay. Allowed only 108 yards passing against Montana St and only 100 against north Texas. Obviously not two powerhouses but you get the feeling that they know what they are doing. I know safety Courtney Herndon is pretty damn good. Against Montana St - he earned Co Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week with a fumble return for a touchdown, a blocked punt, an interception, 4 tackles and a pass breakup! Only problem is they are pretty small I think, averaging around 5'11"
Click to expand...



The D should be the strong suit this year. Last season we lost starting LB and CB (Moore and Moore) in the first couple of weeks and the D never recovered. We got both guys back this year and along w/ Ian Campbell they should be solid.

Freeman needs to live up to his potential and this could be a good start. He finally has an O-line for 1. The ground game is the biggest issue right now as incumbent Leon Patton got in police trouble this summer, hasn't suited up and there's a good chance he'll never wear the purple again....highly touted florida recruit Bubba something never qualified and is at Butler county. That leaves us w/ Valentine (who's been solid thus far) and whiteboy Logan Dold from nowhere Kansas to back him up.

If JFree can hit some passes early and open it for the ground game we get it done no doubt. Make no mistake, Ville is not even a bowl team this year...they are garabango.

GL Ramble!
 
aplous said:
The D should be the strong suit this year. Last season we lost starting LB and CB (Moore and Moore) in the first couple of weeks and the D never recovered. We got both guys back this year and along w/ Ian Campbell they should be solid.

Freeman needs to live up to his potential and this could be a good start. He finally has an O-line for 1. The ground game is the biggest issue right now as incumbent Leon Patton got in police trouble this summer, hasn't suited up and there's a good chance he'll never wear the purple again....highly touted florida recruit Bubba something never qualified and is at Butler county. That leaves us w/ Valentine (who's been solid thus far) and whiteboy Logan Dold from nowhere Kansas to back him up.

If JFree can hit some passes early and open it for the ground game we get it done no doubt. Make no mistake, Ville is not even a bowl team this year...they are garabango.

GL Ramble!
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info, Aplous. Totally forgot you were a K-State guy, should have called on your for some info earlier. If the defense holds its own this year K-State is gonna be pretty damn good I think. They should get the win against the Ville.
 
I'm going to try to move a little toward VK's structure so I can get a little more organized in this thread. I like his "talk me off" section so I am going to add that.
 
I like UL Lafayette laying 3 points at home this weekend against Kent State. The Ragin' Cajuns are now 0-2 on the year, with losses at Southern Miss and at Illinois. After a bad performance at Southern Miss, the coach took them back to the basics in practice, then saw an inspired performance against Illinois, playing well defensively and having a chance at the win, but falling 17-20. This team is improving and will be looking to get the needed win in their home opener. They did not cover a single game at home last year. Kent St is simply bad. This is a team that has covered 5 whole games out of their last 21, guys. After their second loss at Iowa St by 20 points, the coach pretty much ripped his team up and said he felt like many of the guys had quit. Well, they came out and beat Deleware St the next game 24-3. However, Deleware, while only rushing for 99 yards, outthrew Kent St by 70 yards at 247. Kent fumbled twice that game and also threw two interceptions, so the win still wasn't pretty. Senior QB Julian Edelman isn't a playmaker, and you can count on him to throw at least 1 pick a game. Last three years of TD/INT ratio: 2006: 10/11 2007: 7/9 2008: 3/4 I mean this guy literally throws more INT's than TD's. UL's obvious weakness is it's run defense, which was much better week 2 than week 1. IF they can improve on this at all, they should take down Kent this weekend.
 
Thanks DDK. :shake:

Have been looking back on last year's totals, and realized I've been missing out on 2 cash cows: CMU and Rice Overs. Rice was 10-1 Over last year and still perfect this year at 3-0. CMU was 10-3 last year and still perfect this year at 2-0. Guys, that is a an amazing 25-4 record. That isn't a coincidence - the linesmakers simply don't know these teams well enough and are not setting the totals right, bottom line. I have a feeling I could go at least 1-1 every week playing both of these teams Over the total, with a chance at going 2-0, and I think I'm going to try it this week.

Rice/Texas has gone OVER the last three years. With Clement playing the way he is, I can see Rice getting to 14 pts in this one at least, which would surely push it over the total.

CMU/Purdue went OVER last year and pushed the year before. Althought Purdue is an UNDER team, this series is always high scoring.

I'm probably taking a shot on both of these.
 
gl ramble...from a matchup perspective, i just don't see ull. they may have improved last week, but the game vs ill was never really in doubt as they scored 2 tds in the last 6 minutes...they benefitted from some untimely penalties (100 yards of penalties), and still gave up 4.4 on the ground to a team that was pretty disinterested and just wanted to get the hell out of there because they go to penn state next week. i see kent matching up very well and being able to exploit this defense...you're absolutely right that kent turns the ball over way too much all the time, and that has contributed greatly to some ats losses by them. the problem is only half edelman, and that's not his strength...he's a running threat first. edelman hasn't had any receivers worth piss. jarvis is his best target, which is a problem. i think he'll come around though and make plays through the air with the new offensive coordinator. he may not need to this game, as they'll have success running the ball. i think kent's defense is very underrrated. injuries injuries injuries were the story last year for this team, which attributed to the overvaluation...i actually think they'll have a winning ats record this year. i think the only way ull will win this game is if kent shoots themselves (which they're very capable, yes). could be wrong though...i had this number at kent -3.5, obviously way off where it openened..apparently there's something i'm missing
 
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Broadway -

Thanks for the info. Gotta confess I really haven't kept up with either of these teams, for some reason I get the impression that UL Laf is gonna improve and Kent isn't. Kent is GREAT at shooting themselves, but I agree with you that if they do get the running game going they can win this game. I'll look at things a little further before I lock it in. :shake:
 
Telling stat from my tracking program:

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 507pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="674"><col style="width: 71pt;" width="94"> <col style="width: 79pt;" width="105"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <col style="width: 41pt;" width="55"> <col style="width: 68pt;" width="90"> <col style="width: 47pt;" width="62"> <col style="width: 77pt;" width="103"> <col style="width: 63pt;" width="84"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 15.75pt; width: 71pt;" height="21" width="94"> </td> <td class="xl35" style="width: 79pt;" width="105"> </td> <td class="xl36" style="border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:str="Plays" width="81"> Plays </td> <td class="xl37" style="border-left: medium none; width: 41pt;" width="55">W</td> <td class="xl37" style="border-left: medium none; width: 68pt;" width="90">L</td> <td class="xl37" style="border-left: medium none; width: 47pt;" width="62">P</td> <td class="xl37" style="border-left: medium none; width: 77pt;" width="103">Percent</td> <td class="xl37" style="border-left: medium none; width: 63pt;" width="84">$$$$$$$$$</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> </td> <td class="xl33" style="border-top: medium none;">Favorites</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">9</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl27" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="0.33333333333333331" x:fmla="=(D2/C2)" align="right">33.3%</td> <td class="xl28" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="-171"> $ (171.00)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> </td> <td class="xl34" style="border-top: medium none;">Underdogs</td> <td class="xl29" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">9</td> <td class="xl30" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">6</td> <td class="xl30" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl30" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl31" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="0.66666666666666663" x:fmla="=(D3/C3)" align="right">66.7%</td> <td class="xl32" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" x:num="187"> $ 187.00 </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
I need to stay with underdogs!
 
What an absolutely horrible job by K State. I'm embarassed for their run defense and for the fact that I backed this team. What an embarassment.
 
surprising effort by kansas state . The score was not even close to indicative of the level of domination. I didn't see thsi coming.

Love the mississippi st addition to your card this week.
 
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