RambleOn
The Law of Winning
Last week: 8-0 +10.5 units
YTD Sides/Totals: 15-4 (79%) +10 units
Amazing week last week. Everything just fell together on a card that I didn't really like that much to begin with. Also had 4 extra units on my Game of the Week Houston (3-0 on GOW's so far) that were unposted as well as 2 3 game parlays that hit as well. Wanted to remind everyone that although my record looks great, that is not including the 0-4 I was in Wk1 in parlays, teasers, and 1st Halves. The units are correct though: so in total my record would be 15-8 +10 units.
Onto this week:
Michigan St -13 (2 units)
Submitted my bet at -9.5 but alas, I couldn't catch it, and had to settle with 13. However, I don't see this as a problem. ND is god awful, as everyone knows. Weiss is not making ND watch the game footage of the ass-whooping at the Big House, and is starting from scratch today, re adding the offense and defense in a full practice today that will last 4 hours apparently. This is not going to be enough though - although the players for ND say they haven't given up - I think their is just no talent and not enough skill players to hang with MSU. This line is up to 14.5 now.
Central Fla -7 (1 unit):
Just a gut play here. UCF won @ Memphis last year 26-24, one of only two road wins and 1 of 4 wins of their 4-8 effort last year. UCF is obviously improved this year, as is evidenced by their taking Texas to the wire in a heartbreaking 32-35 loss at home. Let down here? Me thinks not - I think they take their frustration out on the Memphis Tigers.
Florida -23 (1 unit) and Florida -20.5 (2 units)
This is shaping up to be my GOW. Hit this line at -23 and it continued to drop. I have no idea why. Florida hung 59 at home to Tennessee and held Ainge and Co. to 20 friggin points. I think the line has value, because Florida's road SEC games last year don't look to warrant laying 3 TD's in Oxford. However, I believe our starting QB Seth Adams was hurt against Vanderbilt, meaning Shaeffer could start. And even if Adams does start, I know that Orgeron isn't scared of taking him out of the game and putting in friggin Shaeffer. This one is going to get ugly, folks. If Florida put 24 on Tennessee in the 4th quarter alone, I am scared to see what they do to Ole Miss.
Let's just look at the situation here. In '02 and '03, Ole Miss won this matchup 17-14, and 20-17, respectively. But guys, a LOT has changed since then. You may remember that Eli friggin Manning was our quarterback when we went to Florida and won 20-17. Now, Ole Miss is a shell of its former self.
The State of the Confederacy
Ole Miss is underperforming expectations this year, if that is possible. I said Ole Miss was a good dog bet if they were catching points in Week 1. When we came out as a favorite, I said I wouldn't lay the points but we'd still win. We did win, but did not cover the 3. (2nd half meltdown). Week 2, my GOW was on Mizzou -6. We failed to cover, again. Last week, I thought Vandy would beat us, but wanted to watch the game so I didn't bet it. We looked pretty awful.
Now, look at Florida. DESTROYED Western Kentucky. DESTROYED Troy. DESTROYED friggin Tennessee, by 39 points. Anyone get a chance to check out Tennessee's rushing stats for the game? Yes, that would be 21 rushes for 37 yards. Yes, 37. Too bad Ole Miss's only strength is the running game. Look for Florida's Defense, which took a hellatious hit from last year, so step up and shut down BenJarvus. To the passing game: Ainge was able to pass all over Florida (249 yards), but for only 1 touchdown and an interception to boot. We don't have a quarterback CLOSE to Ainge's talent level. Florida's D may look suspect, but they haven't given up the big play. As weird as it sounds, that is what has kept Ole Miss in games in the past - long passes during a let down in coverage. Other than Tenny's INT return against Fla, their longest scoring play was 15 yards. I think Seth Adams and/or Brent Shaeffer are going to have trouble passing on this defense which Blue Ribbon gave a C-, but that has been only allowing 18 ppg in the young year.
Finally, we are getting line value here for the sheer fact that Ole Miss has won this game the past two years, it's Florida's first road game, and its a SEC home dog. This is working to Florida's advantage. A team like Florida certainly doesn't lose to a team like us three straight times - and it's time for Florida to make a statement in Oxford. I will be SHOCKED if we score over 10 pts in this one - Florida should throw up 35 at minimum.
Florida: 41 Ole Miss: 13
Nebraska -21 (2 units):
Big 12 vs. the MAC matchup in which Ball St is seriously outmatched. This year so far, Ball St has relied on their passing attack to win games. However, when they head to Lincoln, don't expect it to continue. Although Nebraska's secondary was kind of suspect coming into the year, they have done a great job defending the pass: holding Nevada to 106 yards, Wake Forrest to 140, and USC to 144. Their run defense, ranked 37th in the nation last year, shouldn't have a problem stopping McQuale Lewis, who had been held to under 90 yards rushing a game until his breakout performance at Navy last week. He should come back to earth against the Huskers, who only allowed 70 yards to a similarly situated team in Nevada, beating them 52-10 at home. I'm expecting a similar performance against Ball St.
Georgia Tech -3 (-120) (1 unit)
Don't see a whole lot of people on this one, but it looks solid to me. Not going to go into great detail here, I simply think that Georgia Tech is a lot better than Virginia and should bounce back in this game - I don't expect them to lose two games in a row.
Baylor/Buffalo Over 52.5 (1 unit)
Buffalo's home opener, and they should be pumped up. Baylor's QB has been throwing well and has been allowing a good bit of passing yardage. I see this on in the high 50's to low 60's for some reason.
Will add more leans/ plays as I finalize them. :shake:
YTD Sides/Totals: 15-4 (79%) +10 units
Amazing week last week. Everything just fell together on a card that I didn't really like that much to begin with. Also had 4 extra units on my Game of the Week Houston (3-0 on GOW's so far) that were unposted as well as 2 3 game parlays that hit as well. Wanted to remind everyone that although my record looks great, that is not including the 0-4 I was in Wk1 in parlays, teasers, and 1st Halves. The units are correct though: so in total my record would be 15-8 +10 units.
Onto this week:
Michigan St -13 (2 units)
Submitted my bet at -9.5 but alas, I couldn't catch it, and had to settle with 13. However, I don't see this as a problem. ND is god awful, as everyone knows. Weiss is not making ND watch the game footage of the ass-whooping at the Big House, and is starting from scratch today, re adding the offense and defense in a full practice today that will last 4 hours apparently. This is not going to be enough though - although the players for ND say they haven't given up - I think their is just no talent and not enough skill players to hang with MSU. This line is up to 14.5 now.
Central Fla -7 (1 unit):
Just a gut play here. UCF won @ Memphis last year 26-24, one of only two road wins and 1 of 4 wins of their 4-8 effort last year. UCF is obviously improved this year, as is evidenced by their taking Texas to the wire in a heartbreaking 32-35 loss at home. Let down here? Me thinks not - I think they take their frustration out on the Memphis Tigers.
Florida -23 (1 unit) and Florida -20.5 (2 units)
This is shaping up to be my GOW. Hit this line at -23 and it continued to drop. I have no idea why. Florida hung 59 at home to Tennessee and held Ainge and Co. to 20 friggin points. I think the line has value, because Florida's road SEC games last year don't look to warrant laying 3 TD's in Oxford. However, I believe our starting QB Seth Adams was hurt against Vanderbilt, meaning Shaeffer could start. And even if Adams does start, I know that Orgeron isn't scared of taking him out of the game and putting in friggin Shaeffer. This one is going to get ugly, folks. If Florida put 24 on Tennessee in the 4th quarter alone, I am scared to see what they do to Ole Miss.
Let's just look at the situation here. In '02 and '03, Ole Miss won this matchup 17-14, and 20-17, respectively. But guys, a LOT has changed since then. You may remember that Eli friggin Manning was our quarterback when we went to Florida and won 20-17. Now, Ole Miss is a shell of its former self.
The State of the Confederacy
Ole Miss is underperforming expectations this year, if that is possible. I said Ole Miss was a good dog bet if they were catching points in Week 1. When we came out as a favorite, I said I wouldn't lay the points but we'd still win. We did win, but did not cover the 3. (2nd half meltdown). Week 2, my GOW was on Mizzou -6. We failed to cover, again. Last week, I thought Vandy would beat us, but wanted to watch the game so I didn't bet it. We looked pretty awful.
Now, look at Florida. DESTROYED Western Kentucky. DESTROYED Troy. DESTROYED friggin Tennessee, by 39 points. Anyone get a chance to check out Tennessee's rushing stats for the game? Yes, that would be 21 rushes for 37 yards. Yes, 37. Too bad Ole Miss's only strength is the running game. Look for Florida's Defense, which took a hellatious hit from last year, so step up and shut down BenJarvus. To the passing game: Ainge was able to pass all over Florida (249 yards), but for only 1 touchdown and an interception to boot. We don't have a quarterback CLOSE to Ainge's talent level. Florida's D may look suspect, but they haven't given up the big play. As weird as it sounds, that is what has kept Ole Miss in games in the past - long passes during a let down in coverage. Other than Tenny's INT return against Fla, their longest scoring play was 15 yards. I think Seth Adams and/or Brent Shaeffer are going to have trouble passing on this defense which Blue Ribbon gave a C-, but that has been only allowing 18 ppg in the young year.
Finally, we are getting line value here for the sheer fact that Ole Miss has won this game the past two years, it's Florida's first road game, and its a SEC home dog. This is working to Florida's advantage. A team like Florida certainly doesn't lose to a team like us three straight times - and it's time for Florida to make a statement in Oxford. I will be SHOCKED if we score over 10 pts in this one - Florida should throw up 35 at minimum.
Florida: 41 Ole Miss: 13
Nebraska -21 (2 units):
Big 12 vs. the MAC matchup in which Ball St is seriously outmatched. This year so far, Ball St has relied on their passing attack to win games. However, when they head to Lincoln, don't expect it to continue. Although Nebraska's secondary was kind of suspect coming into the year, they have done a great job defending the pass: holding Nevada to 106 yards, Wake Forrest to 140, and USC to 144. Their run defense, ranked 37th in the nation last year, shouldn't have a problem stopping McQuale Lewis, who had been held to under 90 yards rushing a game until his breakout performance at Navy last week. He should come back to earth against the Huskers, who only allowed 70 yards to a similarly situated team in Nevada, beating them 52-10 at home. I'm expecting a similar performance against Ball St.
Georgia Tech -3 (-120) (1 unit)
Don't see a whole lot of people on this one, but it looks solid to me. Not going to go into great detail here, I simply think that Georgia Tech is a lot better than Virginia and should bounce back in this game - I don't expect them to lose two games in a row.
Baylor/Buffalo Over 52.5 (1 unit)
Buffalo's home opener, and they should be pumped up. Baylor's QB has been throwing well and has been allowing a good bit of passing yardage. I see this on in the high 50's to low 60's for some reason.
Will add more leans/ plays as I finalize them. :shake:
Last edited:
