Ramble's CFB Week 10 Leans/Plays

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Thursday: 1-0 +2 units
Friday: 0-1 -1.1 units
Overall: 50-50-2 +28 units

Crazy Saturday for me. Moosed hard on Rice and Nevada and the Utah St/La Tech Under, and still managed to pick up a good chunk of change. Big win on Sunday night with UCF - easy winner there. Onto next week - I like many of the situations next week.

(Leans in italics, plays in bold)

Sunday

UCF +3 (4 units) :D

Thursday:

VA Tech/GA Tech Under 41 (2 units) :D

Va Tech +2.5: Hokies impressed me last thursday - I think they might be able to pull out a win here. Looking at the UNDER as well.

Friday:

Nevada 2nd H -2.5 (-105) (1 unit) :(

Nevada -4.5: Anything under 6 against New Mex St. is golden.


Saturday

Troy +14.5 (1 unit), :D Troy +17 (-120) (1 unit) :D
Tulsa -6.5 (2 units) :D
UCF -13.5 (10 units) (big play now) :D Too damn easy.
FSU/BC Under 38.5 (1 unit) :( Moose ruined my perfect day.
Arkansas -5.5 (1 unit) :D

2nd Halves:

UCF -5 (1 unit) :D
USF -6 (1 unit) :D
Tulsa -3 (1 unit) :D

Also have a teaser of UCF -7/LSU PK :D but I am not adding this win/loss to my record.

Arkansas -4.5 (leaning the other way now)
East Carolina -5 (Big conference game for Memphis, reconsidering)
Alabama +8 (actually leaning other way here again)
Oklahoma St +3 (series history has me reconsidering here)
Wake -1.5 (line movement the opposite way, what's up here)

Boston College -6.5
Oregon St -3.5 1st H (does ANYONE see ASU leading here?)




Will add later when the lines come out.
beer11.gif
 
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troy making you some money, huh??? ... good luck this week ... hope you match this past week's winnings!!!

:7_17_4:
 
Tulsa -6.5 (2 units)

Man, I can't believe I am betting on Tulsa. I have lost so much money with them this year, and it's all because of their defense. They are fucking awful on defense.

Tulsa is 0-6 their last 6 ATS. But if you look at these games, even if they are against shitty teams, their QB's can throw the ball for some yards, and that is what kills Tulsa. Look at Justin Willis (SMU), Kyle Israel (UCF), Bernard Morris (Marshall), Trevor Vittatoe (UTEP), Sam Hunt (UAB), and Sam Bradford (Okalhoma) and you will realize that every one of these QB's that they failed to cover against is a better QB than Tulane's Anthony Scelfo - despite their many interceptions, they all have more yards than him. His stats are.....get ready.....694 yards, 3 Td's, and 5 interceptions.

I meantion all that because of this: to cover against Tulsa, they are going to have to outthrow them.

Did you think I forgot Matt Forte? I almost did, but not quite. Tulsa has given up 220 yards rushing per road game this year, and Forte WILL be the best back they've faced. He may go for 300+. However, this isn't going to be enough. Like I said above - Tulane has got to outthrow Tulsa to cover a TD here.

Look at what happened at home against Memphis. Guess how many yards rushing Forte had against the swiss cheese Memphis D? 44 attempts for 278 yards....but for only 2 TD's. This was against a Memphis D that ranks 97th in rush defense, allowing 198 yards per game. However, Memphis threw for 355 yards and two TD's, and while allowing all those rushing yards, STILL won the game 28-27. Tulane held the ball for 34 minutes compared to Memphis's 25, but it didn't matter.

Let Forte have his yards. Tulane hasn't seen a QB like this yet this year, and Tulsa hasn't played against a passer this bad either. Expect Tulsa to give up a rushing TD or two, but stay ahead in this game by a TD AT LEAST.

The situation here is on my side as well: Tulane is off a hearbreaking loss to Memphis by 1 friggin point. Tulsa is off of 6 straight no covers, and off 2 straight up losses on the road. They win this road game: and convincingly for once.

:shake:
 
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Love the Troy pick; got them at +15.

UGA in the hangover effect. Troy is a tough group to deal with; especially between some conference rivalry games.
 
Jimmy -

Yep, I hit that line too eary it seems, as it has crept to 16.5. I don't see how some can lay those major points with UGA in the sandwich spot that they are in, and off such an emotional game at Florida with the SU doggie win.

I would understand if Troy was all flash and offense, and I think that is the perception here. However, after watching Troy's last game against Arkansas St, I can tell you that they have a pretty decent defense, and play EXCELLENTLY on special teams. Their punter kicks rugby style and pinned it within the ten almost every time against Arkansas St. If Haugabook is 100% I see this staying within the number.
 
If it ain't broke , dont fix it.

troy been treating you well !

interesting thoughts on tulsa. I admit that tulsa and tulane are two teams i have seen very little of .... so most of my analysis of those squads is box score based. I will be laying off of this game as i dont trust tulsa on the road but they ahve the talent disparity to cover this for you. love the write up and as always, gl this week ramble
 
RambleOn said:
Tulsa -6.5 (2 units)

Man, I can't believe I am betting on Tulsa. I have lost so much money with them this year, and it's all because of their defense. They are fucking awful on defense.

Tulsa is 0-6 their last 6 ATS. But if you look at these games, even if they are against shitty teams, their QB's can throw the ball for some yards, and that is what kills Tulsa. Look at Justin Willis (SMU), Kyle Israel (UCF), Bernard Morris (Marshall), Trevor Vittatoe (UTEP), Sam Hunt (UAB), and Sam Bradford (Okalhoma) and you will realize that every one of these QB's that they failed to cover against is a better QB than Tulane's Anthony Scelfo - despite their many interceptions, they all have more yards than him. His stats are.....get ready.....694 yards, 3 Td's, and 5 interceptions.

I meantion all that because of this: to cover against Tulsa, they are going to have to outthrow them.

Did you think I forgot Matt Forte? I almost did, but not quite. Tulsa has given up 220 yards rushing per road game this year, and Forte WILL be the best back they've faced. He may go for 300+. However, this isn't going to be enough. Like I said above - Tulane has got to outthrow Tulsa to cover a TD here.

Look at what happened at home against Memphis. Guess how many yards rushing Forte had against the swiss cheese Memphis D? 44 attempts for 278 yards....but for only 2 TD's. This was against a Memphis D that ranks 97th in rush defense, allowing 198 yards per game. However, Memphis threw for 355 yards and two TD's, and while allowing all those rushing yards, STILL won the game 28-27. Tulane held the ball for 34 minutes compared to Memphis's 25, but it didn't matter.

Let Forte have his yards. Tulane hasn't seen a QB like this yet this year, and Tulsa hasn't played against a passer this bad either. Expect Tulsa to give up a rushing TD or two, but stay ahead in this game by a TD AT LEAST.

The situation here is on my side as well: Tulane is off a hearbreaking loss to Memphis by 1 friggin point. Tulsa is off of 6 straight no covers, and off 2 straight up losses on the road. They win this road game: and convincingly for once.

:shake:
Click to expand...
very nice writeup ... may lay some more money on this game as it approaches ... gotta see how my HOCKEY bets go this week!!! :36_11_6:... good luck
 
ETG - I'm actually leaning the other way now. I think that lean was a gut reaction to what Arkansas did to Ole Miss (44-8 final). I saw the numbers and have since forgot them, but SC is money on the road in conference games getting points. Especially since they've dropped a couple now, they should be extra hungry for a win here.

Tide High - Funny thing is, I've sort of switched on this lean as well. Probably won't end up playing it, but since the line has gone down to 7 I am leaning LSU. I don't tihink Alabama has the players in the key matchups to hang with LSU - and LSU should be extra hungry here after a bye.
 
Adding:

UCF -13.5 (2 units)

Man, apparently I love the CUSA as many of my leans and plays involve this conference. This play comes down to the fact that UCF has manhandled conference foes at home this year, weak or not: 56-20 trouncing of Memphis and a 44-23 bitch slap of Tulsa. On the road, they faltered at ECU (division leader), but just got back on track against S.Miss on Sunday night in a dominating 34-17 win. Like I said in my thread on Sunday, UCF has gotten back on track and is ready to go with a full head of steam. They should be fightin for the conference championship this year, and Marshall is a W that they need. Marshall is a throwing team and UCF will have to stop Bernard Morris's passing attack to cover here. It is good to note that although UCF is 77th in pass defense allowing 237 a game, they have recorded 7 interceptions in their last two games, so it looks like we have a quickly improving secondary here. UCF simply outclasses Marshall and should not be stopped here.

Central Florida running back Kevin Smith vs. Marshall’s rush defense
One person is ultimately responsible for Central Florida’s success this season: running back Kevin Smith. The nation’s second-ranked running back leads the Knights against one of college football’s weakest rush defenses on Saturday.
Smith ranks second in the country, averaging more than 157 rushing yards per game with more than 1,200 total rushing yards this season. Smith also ran for 175 yards and two touchdowns and set four school records in a 34-17 win over Southern Mississippi last Sunday in Hattiesburg.
Marshall’s opponents have compiled more than 200 rushing yards per contest and scored 19 rushing touchdowns this season. Marshall also allowed the mediocre Rice Owls to amass more than 125 rushing yards against them last Saturday.

Extra Notes:

Liking this play more and more - Homecoming and final home game for UCF.!
 
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SF - I am wasted now, so don't take what I say to heart. I will say that I don't see ASU winning this game. ASU is horrible in the first half and I definitely see Oregon leading at half - considering a play on Oregon 1st H spread or ML for the right price. :shake:
 
Nice hit on UCF bro! Was right there with ya.

Also with you on the Golden Hurricanes this week. GL bro!
 
Besides , ASU slow starts .. it may take carpenter a few possessions to get used to banged up digit.


gl this week ramble
 
Added:

GA Tech/VA Tech Under 41 (1 unit)

Also added another unit on Troy +17, bought it.

This should be my final card unless I end up half-tailing someone when the weekend rolls around.
 
EASY WINNER TONIGHT.

EDuke - thanks bro. For some reason I thought Wake opened as the favorite. I like Wake and will probbaly add them before Saturday.

Sportfanatic - No doubt, son. Numbers look great. Oregon 1st H looks like a possible play for me.
 
UCF going just as planned - up 27-3 at half.

Bernard Morris is getting his, as I said, but they can't stop Israel or Kevin Smith.

UCF -5 2nd H for 1 unit.
 
Adding:

Arkansas -5.5 (1 unit)

This was my iniital lean, and I let some people talk me out of playing it. If you look at my initial leans they are 2-0-1 with Alabama looking good. I'm taking Arkansas.
 
Hell of a day today Ramble. Hopefully Tulsa caps it off for ya.
 
Signal - Thanks, bro.

UNDER got moosed and ruined my perfect day, but it was only a unit.

5-1 +13.9 units on sides....

3-0 +3 units on 2nd Halves....

YTD: 58-51-2 +44.9 units.
 
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