Rak's thoughts for Week 3 NFLX

BigRaktor

BigRaktor

Mr. Incredible?
As the preseason rolls on, I will be interested to hear/see what info we can get on individual games. Everyone figure the starters should probably see action through the 1st half of games?

Here are my leans as of now:

Jax -3 @ GB
Jax 1st H
1st H/Full Game O (2 units)

I think the Jax 1st team will control the 1st H of this game. They have lead by atleast TD in each game so far this preseason at the half. GB has just decent this year, but I think 48 last week is misleading since 14 of it was from fumble recoveries.

Ten @ Buffy -1.5
Ten ML - they won't lose by 1
U35

Buffy involved in alot of close games, worried about a letdown by Tennessee in this one but I think they might still take home a W. If anything the U looks most tempting, maybe even 1st H U too.

StL -1 @ Oak
If this were the regular season I'd get a hard-on for this line. Since this is the pre-season I'm scared...something fishy.

Det @ Indy -4.5
Det ML
O40
Indy 1st H

If Manning and Co play the whole first half (Off and Def) then I see a 10pt lead at half. Det ML might have value for a backdoor win against the Colts backups (see Chicago game), but not too sure.

Dal -3 @ Hou
Over City - O40

SD -3 @ Ariz
Over 40.5

AZ is probably a good O bet for the rest of the year IMO. SD just keeps getting it done.

Should be interesting to see how teams continue to gel as the season approaches.

Thoughts/Discussion more than welcome

:cheers:

Plays for the week:
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>LOSS</TD><TD>08/23 [261] JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS o39 (2 Units)</TD><TD align=right>$55.00</TD><TD align=right>$50.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
WIN​
</TD><TD>08/25 [275] DAL COWBOYS o40</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
PUSH​
</TD><TD>08/23 [263] NEW ORLEANS SAINTS u37</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>
WIN​
</TD><TD>08/23 [1263] 1-H N.O. SAINTS +½-115</TD><TD align=right>$58.00</TD><TD align=right>$50.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
WIN​
</TD><TD>08/24 [270] OAK RAIDERS +1½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>
LOSS​
</TD><TD>08/24 [269] ST. LOUIS RAMS o37½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>
LOSS​
​
</TD><TD>08/24 [265] TENNESSEE TITANS u36½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>
LOSS​
​
</TD><TD>08/24 [268] CAROLINA PANTHERS -1-115</TD><TD align=right>$29.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>WIN</TD><TD>08/25 [1271] 1-H DETROIT LIONS o21-105</TD><TD align=right>$27.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>CANCEL</TD><TD>08/25 [277] BALTIMORE RAVENS -3½-115</TD><TD align=right>$29.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
LOSS​
​
</TD><TD>08/25 [285] MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>
LOSS​
​
</TD><TD>08/25 [285] MINNESOTA VIKINGS +285</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD><TD align=right>$71.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>WIN</TD><TD>08/27 [1291] 1-H CINCI BENGALS o20</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited:
the only thing i like so far is GB/JAX over 39.5 , like you posted.

GB is trying to work Aaron Rodgers hard in the preseason, trying to get him to replace Favre. They have a big WR battle going on so I see GB pushing to the end. Jax likes to play hard on the road in the preseason, so i see them putting up plenty of points too.

i'm down now, i think the line moves higher thursday morning
 
Locking in for 2 units:
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/23 [261] JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS o39</TD><TD align=right>$55.00</TD><TD align=right>$50.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
And for 1 unit:
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/25 [275] DAL COWBOYS o40</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
I am a big Packer fan.
They are actually not going to be playing the starters into the third qtr like many teams do in week 3. They have some battles going on right now and want to see people play.
It may be a good bet to take the Jaguars.
Packers Defense is improved.

Ask yourself, Why the Packers are at home after winning 48-13 last week and are dogs?
The first string guys will not play that long.
 
Another lean I'm starting to review is:

Vikings +7 @ Seattle - Road team has won last 3 regular season meetings. Minny D has been finding ways to get it done - 5 Ints and 6 sacks in 2 games. Unfortunately, they can't do shit offensively...1 TD in 2 games. Sounds like last year right? It gets worse, 8-18 passing vs Jets and 15-23 vs StL. With all that said, I'm still leaning towards this falling inside 7. I can see a 24-20 game, or even a 14-10 game. I'd like to know if Hasselpuss is going to play, or if its Wallace getting the start again. 4 Defensive TD's in 2 games is still pretty impressive. I read that as the D is making plays for the ball.

Thoughts?
 
Minn @ Sea.

I believe this will seattle's 1st home preseason game and I see the Seahawks dominating the 1st half of this one. I think back to their opening drive in week one against the chargers (they won 24-16) and MH looked crisp throwing the ball. I know they had a huge let down in GB LW (no MH) but I think Holmgren got their attention in practice these last couple of days. I will lay the 7 and take the hawks as long as the starters play the 1st half.
 
ISU...thanks...yes this is their 1st home game of the pre-season. That is a factor that does scare me a bit. I'm sure they will want to put on a show for the hometown fans. Just seems like alot of points to lay against a defense that is getting 2.5 sacks/gm and 3 int/gm against a line giving up 4 sacks/gm and thowing 2 int/gm right now. I think that Minny has been Johnny on the Spot lately when it comes to getting to the ball.
 
I believe I'll be on Jax tonight and possibly the OVER in that one as well...certainly not against you in that one and haven't really looked into the other games to this point. Also, lean to NO and the UNDER in that one, any thoughts there?
 
Yeah...seeing some major line movement there...wish I had waited. I still like the over...Weather might be an issue tonight. Talked to my boy down in Milwaukee and he is dead set on taking the hometown team. I still like Jax myself.

Maybe I'm the square on this one...I just don't know
 
Mags...I'm considering playing NO for the 1st H and KC for the game. NO has the talent to come out and put KC in a hole early. If Huard is the starter and plays into the 3rd quarter, I don't like their chances as much as if Croyle comes in at some point in the 2nd. Printers will most likely be the one that wins this against the Saints 2nd/3rd teams...probably KC by a FG in the end. No opinion on the total...well until I looked at how shitty KC is w/out LJ. Under city there...going to add that now.

<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/23 [263] NEW ORLEANS SAINTS u37</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I just have to put my money on this...I don't know why a team would start a guy that has a 29.6 QB rating in preseason. If Croyle starts, then I'll be worried. Otherwise, this is IMO the best side on the late game tonight:
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/23 [1263] 1-H N.O. SAINTS +½-115</TD><TD align=right>$58.00</TD><TD align=right>$50.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Reggie and Deuce are going to go crazy early.

BOL everyone

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Was listening to the radio this morning and KC sports radio guy was on saying that Croyle will start the entire first half.
 
Damnit...thanks for the heads up dmr...That is a bit upsetting that I put that in with bad info, but I think that the Saints will still get it done for the half...BOL w/ your plays

:cheers:
 
Mags...thanks bro...too bad KC got that garbage time TD...

Simplebet...good hit on the Jax/GB Under...

On to the rest of the week...all in all, I guess last night isn't a total loss...at least I added that NO 1st H play to push the night 1-1-1 -$5

:cheers:
 
I have to ask anyone that is reading this...am I crazy? Not only am I seriously considering taking the Vikings on Saturday, I am putting a hard eye on (que NFL Films barbarian horde music) Da Raaaiiiiidaaaaahs!!!

StL has not done well in their pass D so far this pre-season, and Oakland seems to be trying to improve. Now that Cuntpepper has secured a starting spot and looks to keep it for the regular season. What really strikes me as ODD is that StL only had 2 TD's so far. Am I the only one that is suprised by this? They are putting a shit load of yards on the board but only getting FG's to show for it. What is the perceived strength of Da Raaaaiiiiiiiiidaaahhhhs? D...namely, the secondary. Raiders only allowing 50% completion percentage. If Stephen Jackson is out, then having Brian Leonard as your starter is like having Michael Bennett as your sub for LJ. This will allow the secondary to key on Bulger/Fitz/Frerotte even more. Lots of yards and no major redzone knock-out punch.

I also want to play the over on this one on sheer principle.

Anyone else have a feel for this game?

:cheers:
 
Just locking in my plays for tonight:

<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/24 [270] OAK RAIDERS +1½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/24 [269] ST. LOUIS RAMS o37½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/24 [265] TENNESSEE TITANS u36½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/24 [268] CAROLINA PANTHERS -1-115</TD><TD align=right>$29.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

BOL tonight

:cheers:
 
Adding for today:

<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/25 [1271] 1-H DETROIT LIONS o21-105</TD><TD align=right>$27.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/25 [277] BALTIMORE RAVENS -3½-115</TD><TD align=right>$29.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

BOL everyone...shitty night last night...1-3 ($60)
 
Was able to get this in just in time. Take the $25 from the Colts 1st H O and roll it on the Viking ML. Wanted to put in Minny +7.5 anyway.

Adding:
<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/25 [285] MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7½</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/25 [285] MINNESOTA VIKINGS +285</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD><TD align=right>$71.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
BOL tonight

:cheers:
 
4 - 6 - 2 so far this week -$68

That is the price I pay for losing my dicsipline...need to stick to the plan.
 
Last edited:
Adding in one last play for the week. I think things get off to a quick start tonight:

<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=2 width=653 bgColor=#ffff80 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>STRAIGHT WAGER</TD><TD>08/27 [1291] 1-H CINCI BENGALS o20</TD><TD align=right>$28.00</TD><TD align=right>$25.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:cheers: BOL to you all
 
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