Morning guys,
Severino had an off-day yesterday in terms of command and stuff. But he matches up so well against the Rays' lineup that he came away almost perfectly unscathed. The Yankees' #1 bullpen, however, and especially the infield (again) sorely disappointed. But we move on. Sorry for the format: I am copy-and-pasting from private messages that I sent late in the night. Thanks to those who asked for them early, before any line movements transpired. I usually have them ready in the middle of the night but then sleep on them so that I can proofread in the morning.
There are four pitchers that I'd like to look at today. Two fades and two favorites.
First, the fades: both starters in the Indians/Astros affair.
Mike Fiers. The fade train continues. I am glad to mention this guy because of all the love that the Astros receive. Fiers is a thorn in their rotation and he's even been lucky to have limited the damage done to him, as his ERA is 5.75 but his FIP is 8.23. He has gotten shelled in every outing, as his FIP has been over 5 every single time. He lasted 4.1 innings in his last outing in Cleveland, giving up two runs, but his FIP was 9.73. His biggest problem is that he is giving up an average of just over two home runs per game. He seems to match up well with the Indians--in fact, I took the 'under' when he squared off with Kluber, and was lucky to barely hit it. But now I know. He consistently struggles against teams that he, on paper, matches up well with. The Indians is just one example. The Angels, too, for instance, generally struggle against pitchers who induce a balance of fly balls and ground balls, (.652 ops against them) but his FIP was 10.24 against them. So, especially considering his statistical downside (season babip .61 lower than his career babip and career ERA .21 lower than his career FIP) we ride this trend.
Mike Clevinger
Clevinger seems to be impressive, sporting a 2.61 ERA, but his 3.52 FIP and 7.84 BB/9 rate tell a different story. He has been lucky to have such a low ERA considering that his season babip is a paltry .190 while his career babip is .275. I think his luck catches up with him today against a team that he matches up very poorly with. I like the Astros lineup to bounce back after a rare low-scoring performance. The Astros are one of the best teams at hitting the fastball. And Clevinger relies most of all on his fastball. Clevinger is a finesse pitcher who relies less on the velocity of his fastball--or any of his other pitches--but primarily on their location. The Astros are at their best against finesse pitchers, producing a .837 ops against them, compared to .778 against power pitchers. Clevinger is also a fly ball pitcher, as he, in his career, is inducing ground balls at a less than 40% ratio. The Astros are likewise at their best against fly ball pitchers, producing a .825 ops against them, compared to .765 against ground ball pitchers. The Astros are likewise at their best against right-handed pitchers, producing an .810 ops against them, compared to .720 against southpaws. I expect the Astros to hit Clevinger hard.
Now, the favorites: both starters in the San Diego/Arizona affair.
I like both Robbie Ray and Luis Perdomo to pitch well tonight.
Let’s start with Ray. The Arizona southpaw’s 4.57 ERA and 4.23 FIP may make him seem like an unlikely candidate for an ‚under.‘ But his troubles have largely been at home. This season, at home, his FIP is 5.55, but on the road it is just 2.34. He has already faced, and done very well against, some of the top lineups in baseball. In Washington, he gave up two runs in six innings (0.21 FIP) and in Los Angeles he gave up just one earned run in six innings (3.87 FIP). His last outing in San Diego was a gem: on August 20, 2016, he gave up one hit and one run in seven innings (1.72 FIP). I expect another strong performance from him in San Diego because he matches up well against the Padres’ lineup. Ray is very much a power pitcher who relies on the velocity of his pitches. He throws most frequently a fastball that peaks at 97.5 mph, but he also relies on a slider and curve that he throws at well above-average velocity. The Padres really struggle against southpaws, managing just a .595 ops against them, compared to .691 against right-handed pitchers. The Padres are likewise at their worst against power pitchers, producing a paltry .590 ops against them, compared to .699 against finesse pitchers. Ray comes into this matchup with tremendous statistical upside because his career ERA is 4.64, while his career FIP is only 3.85. He is statistically ‚due‘ for a lucky outing, but he won’t need much luck against a lineup that he matches up well with.
Luis Perdomo has improved vastly only his numbers don’t show it. His 4.19 ERA masks a 2.95 FIP. The latter number means that he has actually been pitching very well. Other numbers support this assessment as well. His K/9 rate has improved from 6.44 last season to 8.91 this season, his walk rate has gone down from 2.82 last season to 2.62 last season and his home run rate has gone down from 1.41 last season to 0.52 this season. These numbers show that the effectivity of his stuff and his command of the plate have improved. In his last 14 innings pitched at home against Arizona (in two outings: one in August 2016 and another in September 2016) he gave up just three runs. Besides the fact that his numbers against Arizona are already solid, the fact that the three runs which he gave up against them came from home runs must make one all the more optimistic, considering the vast improvement in his home run rate. Perdomo matches up well against Arizona batters because, one, he is a southpaw. Arizona’s ops is just .718 against southpaws compared to .807 against right-handed pitchers. And, two, Perdomo is very much a power pitcher who relies on the velocity of his pitches. He throws most of all a two-seam fastball that peaks at 97 mph but he also often throws a curve ball at well above-average velocity. Arizona is at its worst against power pitchers, managing just a .748 ops against them compared to .797 against finesse pitchers. Arizona has consistently struggled to be productive against power ground ball pitchers. For instance, against a Tyler Chatwood-led Rockies squad on May second, they managed just two runs (this was Chatwood’s only quality start at Coors this season), against a Gerrit Cole-led Pirates squad on May 11, they managed just two runs and against a Trevor Williams-led Pirates squad on May 13, they managed just three runs. How can we expect Arizona to turn their struggles against power ground ball pitchers on the road, where their ops is just .608 compared to .878 at home? Perdomo has tremendous statistical upside coming into this affair, with an ERA of 5.42 but an FIP of only 4.48. I expect his ERA to climb way down against a lineup that he matches up well with.
Severino had an off-day yesterday in terms of command and stuff. But he matches up so well against the Rays' lineup that he came away almost perfectly unscathed. The Yankees' #1 bullpen, however, and especially the infield (again) sorely disappointed. But we move on. Sorry for the format: I am copy-and-pasting from private messages that I sent late in the night. Thanks to those who asked for them early, before any line movements transpired. I usually have them ready in the middle of the night but then sleep on them so that I can proofread in the morning.
There are four pitchers that I'd like to look at today. Two fades and two favorites.
First, the fades: both starters in the Indians/Astros affair.
Mike Fiers. The fade train continues. I am glad to mention this guy because of all the love that the Astros receive. Fiers is a thorn in their rotation and he's even been lucky to have limited the damage done to him, as his ERA is 5.75 but his FIP is 8.23. He has gotten shelled in every outing, as his FIP has been over 5 every single time. He lasted 4.1 innings in his last outing in Cleveland, giving up two runs, but his FIP was 9.73. His biggest problem is that he is giving up an average of just over two home runs per game. He seems to match up well with the Indians--in fact, I took the 'under' when he squared off with Kluber, and was lucky to barely hit it. But now I know. He consistently struggles against teams that he, on paper, matches up well with. The Indians is just one example. The Angels, too, for instance, generally struggle against pitchers who induce a balance of fly balls and ground balls, (.652 ops against them) but his FIP was 10.24 against them. So, especially considering his statistical downside (season babip .61 lower than his career babip and career ERA .21 lower than his career FIP) we ride this trend.
Mike Clevinger
Clevinger seems to be impressive, sporting a 2.61 ERA, but his 3.52 FIP and 7.84 BB/9 rate tell a different story. He has been lucky to have such a low ERA considering that his season babip is a paltry .190 while his career babip is .275. I think his luck catches up with him today against a team that he matches up very poorly with. I like the Astros lineup to bounce back after a rare low-scoring performance. The Astros are one of the best teams at hitting the fastball. And Clevinger relies most of all on his fastball. Clevinger is a finesse pitcher who relies less on the velocity of his fastball--or any of his other pitches--but primarily on their location. The Astros are at their best against finesse pitchers, producing a .837 ops against them, compared to .778 against power pitchers. Clevinger is also a fly ball pitcher, as he, in his career, is inducing ground balls at a less than 40% ratio. The Astros are likewise at their best against fly ball pitchers, producing a .825 ops against them, compared to .765 against ground ball pitchers. The Astros are likewise at their best against right-handed pitchers, producing an .810 ops against them, compared to .720 against southpaws. I expect the Astros to hit Clevinger hard.
Now, the favorites: both starters in the San Diego/Arizona affair.
I like both Robbie Ray and Luis Perdomo to pitch well tonight.
Let’s start with Ray. The Arizona southpaw’s 4.57 ERA and 4.23 FIP may make him seem like an unlikely candidate for an ‚under.‘ But his troubles have largely been at home. This season, at home, his FIP is 5.55, but on the road it is just 2.34. He has already faced, and done very well against, some of the top lineups in baseball. In Washington, he gave up two runs in six innings (0.21 FIP) and in Los Angeles he gave up just one earned run in six innings (3.87 FIP). His last outing in San Diego was a gem: on August 20, 2016, he gave up one hit and one run in seven innings (1.72 FIP). I expect another strong performance from him in San Diego because he matches up well against the Padres’ lineup. Ray is very much a power pitcher who relies on the velocity of his pitches. He throws most frequently a fastball that peaks at 97.5 mph, but he also relies on a slider and curve that he throws at well above-average velocity. The Padres really struggle against southpaws, managing just a .595 ops against them, compared to .691 against right-handed pitchers. The Padres are likewise at their worst against power pitchers, producing a paltry .590 ops against them, compared to .699 against finesse pitchers. Ray comes into this matchup with tremendous statistical upside because his career ERA is 4.64, while his career FIP is only 3.85. He is statistically ‚due‘ for a lucky outing, but he won’t need much luck against a lineup that he matches up well with.
Luis Perdomo has improved vastly only his numbers don’t show it. His 4.19 ERA masks a 2.95 FIP. The latter number means that he has actually been pitching very well. Other numbers support this assessment as well. His K/9 rate has improved from 6.44 last season to 8.91 this season, his walk rate has gone down from 2.82 last season to 2.62 last season and his home run rate has gone down from 1.41 last season to 0.52 this season. These numbers show that the effectivity of his stuff and his command of the plate have improved. In his last 14 innings pitched at home against Arizona (in two outings: one in August 2016 and another in September 2016) he gave up just three runs. Besides the fact that his numbers against Arizona are already solid, the fact that the three runs which he gave up against them came from home runs must make one all the more optimistic, considering the vast improvement in his home run rate. Perdomo matches up well against Arizona batters because, one, he is a southpaw. Arizona’s ops is just .718 against southpaws compared to .807 against right-handed pitchers. And, two, Perdomo is very much a power pitcher who relies on the velocity of his pitches. He throws most of all a two-seam fastball that peaks at 97 mph but he also often throws a curve ball at well above-average velocity. Arizona is at its worst against power pitchers, managing just a .748 ops against them compared to .797 against finesse pitchers. Arizona has consistently struggled to be productive against power ground ball pitchers. For instance, against a Tyler Chatwood-led Rockies squad on May second, they managed just two runs (this was Chatwood’s only quality start at Coors this season), against a Gerrit Cole-led Pirates squad on May 11, they managed just two runs and against a Trevor Williams-led Pirates squad on May 13, they managed just three runs. How can we expect Arizona to turn their struggles against power ground ball pitchers on the road, where their ops is just .608 compared to .878 at home? Perdomo has tremendous statistical upside coming into this affair, with an ERA of 5.42 but an FIP of only 4.48. I expect his ERA to climb way down against a lineup that he matches up well with.
