Rainman's Trends

[VirginiaCavs]

Good afternoon fellas,

There is (so far, at least) just one pitcher that I'd like to talk about today.




1) Luis Severino


This pitcher may seem like an unlikely choice considering his high 3.86 ERA and 3.75 FIP, which his recent abysmal performance against the Astros is largely responsible for. But don't be alarmed by these numbers, for two reasons: 1) Severino is historically much worse at Yankee stadium. In his career, Severino's FIP is 4.94 at home compared to 3.58 on the road. 2) Houston is an excellent fastball-hitting team. Tampa Bay provides a much better matchup for Severino. Severino is very much a power pitcher because he relies most of all on a blazing fastball that averages 97.2 mph but also on a slider that averages 87.6 mph. Yet the Rays struggle most against power pitchers, producing a mere .687 ops against power pitchers compared to .828 vs finesse pitchers. The Rays have faced multiple power ground ball pitchers and they have consistently struggled against them at home. For instance, against a Nathan Karns-led Royals squad, the Rays lost 3-7 and against a Joe Biagini-led Jays squad, the Rays lost 1-2. Even at home, on April 13th, Severino gave up just two runs in seven innings (2.18 FIP) against the Rays, last year he pitched 5.1 innings of relief in Tampa Bay, allowing just one hit and zero runs (0.15 FIP, 1.65 FIP, 2.65 FIP in the three respective outings) and in his last start in Tampa Bay in September, 2015 he gave up just one run in 5.2 innings (1.19 FIP). Severino has historical success in Tampa Bay because he matches up well against Rays' batters. Behind Severino the Yankees have the best bullpen in the MLB as measured by FIP (2.53). I expect the Rays to struggle to score tonight. Look at the Rays TT 'under.'


I wish everybody happy betting, today!

 

[tuck321]

Any insights on Nicolino? BOL

 

[nbafan88]

Great write up

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Leaning under 4 first H in Dodgers stadium, Tuck. It caught my eye that the number is 3 at sharp book pinnacle but 4 everywhere else. I like how Nicolino matches up as a lefty finesse pitcher with a Dodgers' lineup that prefers right-handed pitching and prefers power-pitchers. Nicolino gave up just two hits in 7.1 innings last April in Los Angeles. I think he's capable of repeating that. First half ML certainly has some value...but what's that even mean for someone to say that he thinks Wood should be only -160 and not -240. I'd never bet against Wood.

I am considering the following parlay involving Nicolino. Feel free to respond with feedback: first 5 under 4 in Dodgers stadium and first 5 under 3.5 in Oakland. Boston is bottom-three in ops at night compared to top three ops during the day. They've struggled against sinkerballers--Leake most recently, Graveman last year. And they haven't seen the new-and-improved Graveman with the increased velocity of his sinker. And Oakland hasn't been able to hit elite left-handed pitching, so their numbers against left-handed starters is inflated. Their success against Paxton was very lucky as Paxton's FIP was actually less than 1. Keuchel has owned them twice. I think Sale owns them again tonight.

The Marlins have good numbers against southpaws (think Wood) and the A's have good numbers against power pitchers (think Sale). But I don't like to use standard statistics to assess elite pitchers, since they're elite, they're too special to judge by those common kinds of numbers. So I look at how Miami has done against elite pitchers (Gio Gonzalez, Carlos Martinez, Keuchel...) and the Athletics and I don't think either lineup possesses the quality to get more than a run in the first five innings. And I think Nicolino and Graveman match up well and are in a good spot to do well.

 

[GWarner27]

Nicolino is not a MLB-quality SP in my estimation and won't live for too long stranding runners at the rate he does, I'd save your money

 

[VirginiaCavs]

You gotta be kidding me. Infield once again fails to come through with a very makable play and it doesn't get scored an error. Twice in a row bit by the Yankees defense.

 

[geezer]

Torreyes doesn't belong in the major leagues at 3rd base. No Headley, no Sanchez, no Girardi and i've never been a fan of Clippard. Severino has great stuff and little sense of the mental aspect of the game.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Torreyes doesn't belong in the major leagues at 3rd base. No Headley, no Sanchez, no Girardi and i've never been a fan of Clippard. Severino has great stuff and little sense of the mental aspect of the game.

Oh yeah, is that why every time I tune in a bit late to a Severino start I see 25 pitches in the first inning and a visit from the pitching coach? He needs to get his head into the game from the beginning. Makes sense: psychological issues. That play at third base was also really, really bad. At the very, very least: just knock it down.