[FONT="]Good morning![/FONT]
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[FONT="]Here's some pitchers that i'd like to talk about today.[/FONT]
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1) Ervin Santana[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT="]Santana seems to be having a breakout season. In terms of ERA, it seems like he is pitching a lot better than ever before. His ERA was 3.38 last year, but only 1.50 this year. But in terms of FIP, he is actually pitching worse: 3.81 last season to 4.18 this season. His K/9 rate is down from 7.40 to 6.83 and his BB/9 rate is up from 2.63 to 3.50, meaning that his stuff has been less effective and his command of the plate has been weaker. He has been lucky to be pitching so well so far, given his current opposing babip of just .128 compared to .283 in his career and given the disparity (season and career) between his ERA and FIP. Santana's pitching arsenal contains a mixture of power and finesse--he relies neither primarily on the velocity of his pitches nor on their variety, location and movement. Against pitchers who are balanced in this way, the Rockies are at their best, producing an ops of .821. Santana comes into this affair with significant statistical downside against a lineup that he matches up poorly with. Worried about the postponement? Don't be: [/FONT]Santana, in his career, is 45-40 4.47 ERA daytime compared to 94-77 3.81 nighttime.[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]2) Jordan Montgomery[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]The Royals go up against a southpaw today. Their lineup is not built to do well against southpaws, as its managing just a .582 ops against southpaws compared to .673 vs right-handed pitchers and a .588 ops against left-handed starters compared to .669 right-handed starters. They have had some success against pitchers who rely on a hard fastball, including southpaw Blake Snell. But against finesse pitchers who rely more on a variety of pitches rather than on fastball velocity, like Quintana, Holland and most recently Sabathia, the Royals have really struggled. Montgomery has had some trouble with walks, but the Royals are also second to last in drawing walks. Behind Montgomery, the Yankees have the second best bullpen as measured by ERA. Check out Royals TT under.[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]3) Julio Teheran[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Julio Teheran has been an utter disaster at home this season. He is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA in four outings in Atlanta compared to 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in four outings outside of Atlanta. He has also been a disaster at night: 3-3 with a 5.67 ERA in six night starts, compared to 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two day starts. We ride this trend because the Jays also match up well with him. Teheran is very much a finesse pitcher who relies on a variety of pitches, most of all a fastball that averages just 90 mph. The Blue Jays are at their best against finesse pitchers, with a .730 ops against them compared to .653 vs power pitchers. The Braves' 23rd-ranked bullpen doesn't inspire too much confidence either. Check out the Blue Jays TT over.
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]4) Edinson Volquez[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Volquez is coming off a strong performance against the Braves (two runs in six innings). But he matched up well with them as a power pitcher, which he very much is one, as he relies most of all on a sinker and fastball that that top at nearly 97 mph. The Braves are managing just a .646 ops against power pitchers. But the Dodgers are a different story: they specialize against power pitchers, producing a .823 ops against them, compared to .750 vs finesse. They'll also be glad to return home, where their ops is .814 compared to .572 in San Francisco, where they played their last series. The Marlins' below-average (as measured by ERA) bullpen doesn't inspire too much confidence either. Check out the Dodgers TT over.[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT="]Here's some pitchers that i'd like to talk about today.[/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT="]
1) Ervin Santana[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Santana seems to be having a breakout season. In terms of ERA, it seems like he is pitching a lot better than ever before. His ERA was 3.38 last year, but only 1.50 this year. But in terms of FIP, he is actually pitching worse: 3.81 last season to 4.18 this season. His K/9 rate is down from 7.40 to 6.83 and his BB/9 rate is up from 2.63 to 3.50, meaning that his stuff has been less effective and his command of the plate has been weaker. He has been lucky to be pitching so well so far, given his current opposing babip of just .128 compared to .283 in his career and given the disparity (season and career) between his ERA and FIP. Santana's pitching arsenal contains a mixture of power and finesse--he relies neither primarily on the velocity of his pitches nor on their variety, location and movement. Against pitchers who are balanced in this way, the Rockies are at their best, producing an ops of .821. Santana comes into this affair with significant statistical downside against a lineup that he matches up poorly with. Worried about the postponement? Don't be: [/FONT]Santana, in his career, is 45-40 4.47 ERA daytime compared to 94-77 3.81 nighttime.[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]2) Jordan Montgomery[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]The Royals go up against a southpaw today. Their lineup is not built to do well against southpaws, as its managing just a .582 ops against southpaws compared to .673 vs right-handed pitchers and a .588 ops against left-handed starters compared to .669 right-handed starters. They have had some success against pitchers who rely on a hard fastball, including southpaw Blake Snell. But against finesse pitchers who rely more on a variety of pitches rather than on fastball velocity, like Quintana, Holland and most recently Sabathia, the Royals have really struggled. Montgomery has had some trouble with walks, but the Royals are also second to last in drawing walks. Behind Montgomery, the Yankees have the second best bullpen as measured by ERA. Check out Royals TT under.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]3) Julio Teheran[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Julio Teheran has been an utter disaster at home this season. He is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA in four outings in Atlanta compared to 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in four outings outside of Atlanta. He has also been a disaster at night: 3-3 with a 5.67 ERA in six night starts, compared to 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two day starts. We ride this trend because the Jays also match up well with him. Teheran is very much a finesse pitcher who relies on a variety of pitches, most of all a fastball that averages just 90 mph. The Blue Jays are at their best against finesse pitchers, with a .730 ops against them compared to .653 vs power pitchers. The Braves' 23rd-ranked bullpen doesn't inspire too much confidence either. Check out the Blue Jays TT over.
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]4) Edinson Volquez[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT="][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Volquez is coming off a strong performance against the Braves (two runs in six innings). But he matched up well with them as a power pitcher, which he very much is one, as he relies most of all on a sinker and fastball that that top at nearly 97 mph. The Braves are managing just a .646 ops against power pitchers. But the Dodgers are a different story: they specialize against power pitchers, producing a .823 ops against them, compared to .750 vs finesse. They'll also be glad to return home, where their ops is .814 compared to .572 in San Francisco, where they played their last series. The Marlins' below-average (as measured by ERA) bullpen doesn't inspire too much confidence either. Check out the Dodgers TT over.[/FONT][/FONT]
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