[FONT="]Hello fellas,[/FONT][FONT="]
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[FONT="]This is an early addition of Rainman's Trends in view of Mother's Day. In my first Rainman thread (I think only on covers, sorry), I faded a group of pitchers who were in tough spots or were in a slump. It's time for those same pitchers to step onto the mound again. We keep riding the same trend and/or the same slump until the respective pitchers or the match-up specifics give us reason not to. Can the pitchers get really lucky and have a decent outing? Yes, (see, for instance, Weaver's three mid-April starts, in which his ERA was 3.00, but his fip well above 4, in each outing) but we go by what's most probable.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]First up: Jered Weaver. I don't think that this guy belongs on a Major League rotation. Just look at the fip in each of his outings this season--I list them in order from first to most recent: 9.80, 5.67, 4.17, 6.83, 10.59, 8.50, 13.00. He has yet to have a quality outing. With an ERA of "only" 6.81, compared to an fip of 7.91, and with a babip of .239, which is substantially lower than his career average of .273, he even has considerable statistical downside coming into this affair. Weaver is so bad mainly because his pitches lack any respectable kind of velocity. Opposing batters are able be comfortable at the plate and that's why his HR/9 rate is up this season from 1.87 to 3.53. Now Weaver faces the White Sox. The White Sox have been notorious for struggling against right-handed pitchers. Their ops is just .630 against right-handed pitchers compared to .766 vs left-handed pitchers. There is, however, one exception, that Weaver fits perfectly. The White Sox hit finesse pitchers, and fly ball pitchers, very well, and Weaver is unambiguously both. The White Sox' ops is .765 vs finesse compared to .526 vs power and .740 vs fly ball pitchers compared to .621 vs ground ball pitchers. Examples of right-handed finesse, fly ball pitchers that the White Sox have dominated are Josh Tomlin. Tomlin's fip on the season is a very respectable 3.34, but against the White Sox it was 20.40. He didn't make it past the second inning, giving up seven runs and two home runs. They recently dominated Phil Hughes for four ER in 4.2 innings. They also tagged Ian Kennedy for four ER in 4.1 innings. And I would not put Weaver in the same category even as Hughes, let alone Tomlin or Kennedy. After Weaver, the Padres' bullpen is ranked 26th, with a 5.12 ERA. They are likely only not ranked last because of Brad Hand, their best reliever. The only thing is, he is a southpaw, and the White Sox have been awesome against lefties, succeeding against the likes of Duffy and Vargas at home. Consider the White Sox TT over.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Making another repeat appearance is Ariel Miranda. Miranda's career record at home is 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA. On the road, however, he is an abysmal 2-3 with a 6.45 ERA. Miranda did enjoy one pretty good outing (3.94 fip) on the road--in Cleveland. But Cleveland was an exception, as they really struggle against southpaws. Their ops vs left-handed starters is just .625, while against right-handed starters it is .781. That means that even when they prepare themselves to go up against a southpaw, they still can't be productive. The Blue Jays don't have the same problem. In fact, hitting southpaws is their strength. Their ops is .716 vs southpaw starters compared to .667 vs right-handed starters. The Jays' bats have finally heated up. They have won four in a row, plating 26 runs, all at home. It seems probable that they make Miranda another victim of their hot streak. Seattle's 27th team bullpen ERA, and their bullpen's injuries, doesn't inspire much hope, either. Check out the Blue Jays' TT over[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Here's the pitcher that I was going to talk about today: Mike Fiers. I was correct to back off of Roark today because of the significant drop in his career ERA from four days' rest to five days' rest. I don't think that the extra day off will help Fiers Let's consider Fiers. Fiers has been a mess all season. His BB/9 rate is up from 2.24 last year to 3.86 and his HR/9 rate is up from 1.39 last year to 4.15. The latter statistic is very worrisome against the Yankees, who average 1.94 home runs at home, the most out of any other team. Fiers has yet to pitch a game with an fip of under 5. And yet, with a season ERA of 5.64 and a season fip of 8.57, and a babip of .244, which is significantly lower than his career babip of .292, he is coming into tomorrow's affair with tremendous downside. This season, he has pitched off of five days' rest, four days' rest, and six days' rest. It hasn't mattered. Maybe the constant change of routine has, in fact, hurt him. I think the main thing is that he matches up very poorly against the Yankees. Fiers is a right-handed pitcher. Against right-handed starters, the Yankees enjoy a .832 ops, compared to .711 vs southpaws. Fiers is very much a finesse pitcher, who relies on a variety of pitches, location, and not at all on velocity. Against finesse pitchers, however, the Yankees are at their best, producing a .904 ops, compared to .638 vs power. The Yanks love hitting at home, where their ops is .861, compared to .740 on the road. And I think they'll be licking their chops to hit Fiers. Surely they know that they won't have nearly as much of a chance to hit Houston's elite bullpen. Consider 1H Yankees TT over.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Here is a pitcher who I like:[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Justin Verlander against the Angels. He pitched against them twice last year. On the road, he gave up 4 ER in 7.1 innings, but that was actually an unlucky outing, as his fip was only 1.24, meaning that he pitched very well. In Detroit, he gave up 2 ER in 7.2 innings (3.15 fip). Career Angels' batters are managing just a .169 ba and .542 in 130 at-bats. The Angels match up poorly against Verlander, as their ops is just .634 vs right-handed starters compared to .724 vs left-handed starters. Most decisively, their ops is just .567 vs power pitchers compared to .721 vs finesse pitchers. Verlander comes into this match-up with a lot of upside, as his ERA is 4.25, but his fip just 3.36, meaning that he is statistically 'due' for some luck. But I don't think he'll need much of it. Consider something like Angels 1H TT 'under.'[/FONT]
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[FONT="]This is an early addition of Rainman's Trends in view of Mother's Day. In my first Rainman thread (I think only on covers, sorry), I faded a group of pitchers who were in tough spots or were in a slump. It's time for those same pitchers to step onto the mound again. We keep riding the same trend and/or the same slump until the respective pitchers or the match-up specifics give us reason not to. Can the pitchers get really lucky and have a decent outing? Yes, (see, for instance, Weaver's three mid-April starts, in which his ERA was 3.00, but his fip well above 4, in each outing) but we go by what's most probable.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]First up: Jered Weaver. I don't think that this guy belongs on a Major League rotation. Just look at the fip in each of his outings this season--I list them in order from first to most recent: 9.80, 5.67, 4.17, 6.83, 10.59, 8.50, 13.00. He has yet to have a quality outing. With an ERA of "only" 6.81, compared to an fip of 7.91, and with a babip of .239, which is substantially lower than his career average of .273, he even has considerable statistical downside coming into this affair. Weaver is so bad mainly because his pitches lack any respectable kind of velocity. Opposing batters are able be comfortable at the plate and that's why his HR/9 rate is up this season from 1.87 to 3.53. Now Weaver faces the White Sox. The White Sox have been notorious for struggling against right-handed pitchers. Their ops is just .630 against right-handed pitchers compared to .766 vs left-handed pitchers. There is, however, one exception, that Weaver fits perfectly. The White Sox hit finesse pitchers, and fly ball pitchers, very well, and Weaver is unambiguously both. The White Sox' ops is .765 vs finesse compared to .526 vs power and .740 vs fly ball pitchers compared to .621 vs ground ball pitchers. Examples of right-handed finesse, fly ball pitchers that the White Sox have dominated are Josh Tomlin. Tomlin's fip on the season is a very respectable 3.34, but against the White Sox it was 20.40. He didn't make it past the second inning, giving up seven runs and two home runs. They recently dominated Phil Hughes for four ER in 4.2 innings. They also tagged Ian Kennedy for four ER in 4.1 innings. And I would not put Weaver in the same category even as Hughes, let alone Tomlin or Kennedy. After Weaver, the Padres' bullpen is ranked 26th, with a 5.12 ERA. They are likely only not ranked last because of Brad Hand, their best reliever. The only thing is, he is a southpaw, and the White Sox have been awesome against lefties, succeeding against the likes of Duffy and Vargas at home. Consider the White Sox TT over.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Making another repeat appearance is Ariel Miranda. Miranda's career record at home is 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA. On the road, however, he is an abysmal 2-3 with a 6.45 ERA. Miranda did enjoy one pretty good outing (3.94 fip) on the road--in Cleveland. But Cleveland was an exception, as they really struggle against southpaws. Their ops vs left-handed starters is just .625, while against right-handed starters it is .781. That means that even when they prepare themselves to go up against a southpaw, they still can't be productive. The Blue Jays don't have the same problem. In fact, hitting southpaws is their strength. Their ops is .716 vs southpaw starters compared to .667 vs right-handed starters. The Jays' bats have finally heated up. They have won four in a row, plating 26 runs, all at home. It seems probable that they make Miranda another victim of their hot streak. Seattle's 27th team bullpen ERA, and their bullpen's injuries, doesn't inspire much hope, either. Check out the Blue Jays' TT over[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Here's the pitcher that I was going to talk about today: Mike Fiers. I was correct to back off of Roark today because of the significant drop in his career ERA from four days' rest to five days' rest. I don't think that the extra day off will help Fiers Let's consider Fiers. Fiers has been a mess all season. His BB/9 rate is up from 2.24 last year to 3.86 and his HR/9 rate is up from 1.39 last year to 4.15. The latter statistic is very worrisome against the Yankees, who average 1.94 home runs at home, the most out of any other team. Fiers has yet to pitch a game with an fip of under 5. And yet, with a season ERA of 5.64 and a season fip of 8.57, and a babip of .244, which is significantly lower than his career babip of .292, he is coming into tomorrow's affair with tremendous downside. This season, he has pitched off of five days' rest, four days' rest, and six days' rest. It hasn't mattered. Maybe the constant change of routine has, in fact, hurt him. I think the main thing is that he matches up very poorly against the Yankees. Fiers is a right-handed pitcher. Against right-handed starters, the Yankees enjoy a .832 ops, compared to .711 vs southpaws. Fiers is very much a finesse pitcher, who relies on a variety of pitches, location, and not at all on velocity. Against finesse pitchers, however, the Yankees are at their best, producing a .904 ops, compared to .638 vs power. The Yanks love hitting at home, where their ops is .861, compared to .740 on the road. And I think they'll be licking their chops to hit Fiers. Surely they know that they won't have nearly as much of a chance to hit Houston's elite bullpen. Consider 1H Yankees TT over.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Here is a pitcher who I like:[/FONT]
[FONT="]
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[FONT="]Justin Verlander against the Angels. He pitched against them twice last year. On the road, he gave up 4 ER in 7.1 innings, but that was actually an unlucky outing, as his fip was only 1.24, meaning that he pitched very well. In Detroit, he gave up 2 ER in 7.2 innings (3.15 fip). Career Angels' batters are managing just a .169 ba and .542 in 130 at-bats. The Angels match up poorly against Verlander, as their ops is just .634 vs right-handed starters compared to .724 vs left-handed starters. Most decisively, their ops is just .567 vs power pitchers compared to .721 vs finesse pitchers. Verlander comes into this match-up with a lot of upside, as his ERA is 4.25, but his fip just 3.36, meaning that he is statistically 'due' for some luck. But I don't think he'll need much of it. Consider something like Angels 1H TT 'under.'[/FONT]
