Raiders vs. Broncos NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions: Bronco Offense to Actually Look Good Against Struggling Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High
Las Vegas' Pass Defense by the Numbers
Various statistics indicate that the Raider pass defense is among the league's worst.
In terms of limiting opposing pass yards per game, they rank 26th.
By almost six points, they rank last-place at limiting the opposing quarterback's passer rating.
Moreover, they rank last-place in sack rate.
The two problems -- with pass rush and secondary play -- fuel the larger problem of pass defense.
Where is the Raiders' Pass Rush?
The Raiders were supposed to have an excellent pass rush this season partly because they already have former all-pro selection Maxx Crosby.
They added Chandler Jones to complement him on the other side of the defensive line.
While Jones wasn't coming off the 19-sack season that he accomplished in 2019, he did accrue 10.5 sacks last season and appeared primed to be at least similarly productive.
So far this season, though, he has a half-sack. That's it.
The Problem with Chandler Jones
The addition of Jones should have been significant because it is not enough for a defense to possess a single solid pass rusher.
Opposing offenses are too easily able to scheme away that single pass rushing threat.
They wouldn't be able to double-team or otherwise find a way to scheme away the threats of both Crosby and Jones.
Clips of Jones reveal him often being manhandled by single offensive lineman.
Opposing offenses just aren't afraid of him.
As a result, the problem persists that the Raiders still have just the one good pass rusher.
While Crosby has seven sacks, no other Raider has more than a sack.
Overall, Crosby has 70 percent of his team's sacks.
Secondary Problems
Given its personnel, Vegas' issues with the quality of its secondary are less surprising.
Of course, it's harder for defensive backs to cover their man when their team's pass rushing candidates are unable to help them.
Three of its cornerbacks who have been targeted 15 or more times are allowing a passer rating of 107 or worse.
While his season has been disrupted by injury, Anthony Averett has been particularly disappointing.
Averett has failed almost every time to force an incomplete pass when targeted.
He's been targeted while covering Houston's Brandin Cooks, New Orleans' Marquez Callaway, and Jacksonville's Marvin Jones.
Last Week's Game
Las Vegas' lack of pass rush was most glaringly evident last week in its game against Indianapolis.
The Colt pass protection unit had struggled all season.
Even after facing the Raiders, Indianapolis ranks 27that limiting the rate at which its opponent accrues sacks.
Colt quarterback Matt Ryan, when facing the Raiders, was sacked once in 29 drop-backs and enjoyed one of his best games of the season.
Russell Wilson and Melvin Gordon's Outlook
Struggling quarterbacks repeatedly manage to thrive against Vegas' problematic defense.
Matt Ryan is just one example.
After back-to-back awful games, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence accomplished a 109.0 passer rating against the Raiders.
Russell Wilson, for Denver, achieved by far his best game of the season at Las Vegas.
Wilson's passer rating in that game was 124.9. His passer rating exceeded 86.6 in one other game.
There's no reason to think that Wilson can't replicate his strong performance given the softness of the challenge posed by Las Vegas' defense.
Moreover, the Raiders rank in the bottom half in terms of run defense.
So, Bronco running back Melvin Gordon, who had all of three carries in these teams' first matchup, is in line for one of his best games of the season.
Broncos' Defense
Denver has prided itself as having one of the best if not the best defenses of the season.
I like the Broncos in this game because it is the one team that will play defense.
When they lost to the Raiders, their defense struggled.
But the Broncos have been giving up almost twice as many points on the road than they have been at home.
Returning home, to the altitude of Denver, makes a significant difference.
At home, Denver is allowing an NFL-low 11.8 points per game.
Run Defense
Relative to these teams' first meeting, the Broncos will improve especially in terms of run defense.
They are coming off a game in which they limited Titan star Derrick Henry to his second-worst game of the season in terms of rushing yards and YPC.
So, the Bronco run defense is capable of being as elite as its top-ranked pass defense.
Pat Surtain's Outlook
Denver secured an expensive secondary that is well-stocked at safety and cornerback.
Pat Surtain was not his best version of him self when dealing with Vegas' Davante Adams in their earlier matchup.
However, as measured by targets and productivity allowed, he has thrived against similarly high-level wide receivers, such as Tyreek Hill and Amari Cooper, so he is built to bounce back.
The Verdict
The Broncos will cover the spread as a result of its capable quarterback play -- when facing problematic defenses, such as the Raiders' -- and its advantage in the quality of the secondary.
As for the total, it is too low for this game. Russell Wilson's capabilities are being underrated because he typically faces competent pass rush-secondary combinations.
Meanwhile, Denver's defense is also being a bit overrated because it has lost key pass rushing pieces -- some key guys are injured and Bradley Chubb is now a Dolphin.
With stronger defensive play at home and facing the Raiders' lack of pass rush and poor secondary play, Denver will win a higher-scoring game.
Broncos 27 -- Raiders 20
Best Bets: Broncos -2.5 at -108 with Heritage & Over 41.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High
Las Vegas' Pass Defense by the Numbers
Various statistics indicate that the Raider pass defense is among the league's worst.
In terms of limiting opposing pass yards per game, they rank 26th.
By almost six points, they rank last-place at limiting the opposing quarterback's passer rating.
Moreover, they rank last-place in sack rate.
The two problems -- with pass rush and secondary play -- fuel the larger problem of pass defense.
Where is the Raiders' Pass Rush?
The Raiders were supposed to have an excellent pass rush this season partly because they already have former all-pro selection Maxx Crosby.
They added Chandler Jones to complement him on the other side of the defensive line.
While Jones wasn't coming off the 19-sack season that he accomplished in 2019, he did accrue 10.5 sacks last season and appeared primed to be at least similarly productive.
So far this season, though, he has a half-sack. That's it.
The Problem with Chandler Jones
The addition of Jones should have been significant because it is not enough for a defense to possess a single solid pass rusher.
Opposing offenses are too easily able to scheme away that single pass rushing threat.
They wouldn't be able to double-team or otherwise find a way to scheme away the threats of both Crosby and Jones.
Clips of Jones reveal him often being manhandled by single offensive lineman.
Opposing offenses just aren't afraid of him.
As a result, the problem persists that the Raiders still have just the one good pass rusher.
While Crosby has seven sacks, no other Raider has more than a sack.
Overall, Crosby has 70 percent of his team's sacks.
Secondary Problems
Given its personnel, Vegas' issues with the quality of its secondary are less surprising.
Of course, it's harder for defensive backs to cover their man when their team's pass rushing candidates are unable to help them.
Three of its cornerbacks who have been targeted 15 or more times are allowing a passer rating of 107 or worse.
While his season has been disrupted by injury, Anthony Averett has been particularly disappointing.
Averett has failed almost every time to force an incomplete pass when targeted.
He's been targeted while covering Houston's Brandin Cooks, New Orleans' Marquez Callaway, and Jacksonville's Marvin Jones.
Last Week's Game
Las Vegas' lack of pass rush was most glaringly evident last week in its game against Indianapolis.
The Colt pass protection unit had struggled all season.
Even after facing the Raiders, Indianapolis ranks 27that limiting the rate at which its opponent accrues sacks.
Colt quarterback Matt Ryan, when facing the Raiders, was sacked once in 29 drop-backs and enjoyed one of his best games of the season.
Russell Wilson and Melvin Gordon's Outlook
Struggling quarterbacks repeatedly manage to thrive against Vegas' problematic defense.
Matt Ryan is just one example.
After back-to-back awful games, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence accomplished a 109.0 passer rating against the Raiders.
Russell Wilson, for Denver, achieved by far his best game of the season at Las Vegas.
Wilson's passer rating in that game was 124.9. His passer rating exceeded 86.6 in one other game.
There's no reason to think that Wilson can't replicate his strong performance given the softness of the challenge posed by Las Vegas' defense.
Moreover, the Raiders rank in the bottom half in terms of run defense.
So, Bronco running back Melvin Gordon, who had all of three carries in these teams' first matchup, is in line for one of his best games of the season.
Broncos' Defense
Denver has prided itself as having one of the best if not the best defenses of the season.
I like the Broncos in this game because it is the one team that will play defense.
When they lost to the Raiders, their defense struggled.
But the Broncos have been giving up almost twice as many points on the road than they have been at home.
Returning home, to the altitude of Denver, makes a significant difference.
At home, Denver is allowing an NFL-low 11.8 points per game.
Run Defense
Relative to these teams' first meeting, the Broncos will improve especially in terms of run defense.
They are coming off a game in which they limited Titan star Derrick Henry to his second-worst game of the season in terms of rushing yards and YPC.
So, the Bronco run defense is capable of being as elite as its top-ranked pass defense.
Pat Surtain's Outlook
Denver secured an expensive secondary that is well-stocked at safety and cornerback.
Pat Surtain was not his best version of him self when dealing with Vegas' Davante Adams in their earlier matchup.
However, as measured by targets and productivity allowed, he has thrived against similarly high-level wide receivers, such as Tyreek Hill and Amari Cooper, so he is built to bounce back.
The Verdict
The Broncos will cover the spread as a result of its capable quarterback play -- when facing problematic defenses, such as the Raiders' -- and its advantage in the quality of the secondary.
As for the total, it is too low for this game. Russell Wilson's capabilities are being underrated because he typically faces competent pass rush-secondary combinations.
Meanwhile, Denver's defense is also being a bit overrated because it has lost key pass rushing pieces -- some key guys are injured and Bradley Chubb is now a Dolphin.
With stronger defensive play at home and facing the Raiders' lack of pass rush and poor secondary play, Denver will win a higher-scoring game.
Broncos 27 -- Raiders 20
Best Bets: Broncos -2.5 at -108 with Heritage & Over 41.5 at -107 with BetOnline
