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Broncos Are Dead Meat Against Chucky's Raiders
Denver at Oakland
When: Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NFL Pick: Raiders ATS
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Oakland as three-point favorites. But bettors have made the Broncos small favorites. I suspect that the shift in odds is explainable by the drama surrounding Antonio Brown -- or, more accurately, the media's non-stop coverage of it and the negative publicity afforded to Oakland's franchise.
Think of Oakland what you will, Antonio Brown will play and his presence helps give Oakland a clear edge.
Oakland's Offensive Success Begins With Derek Carr
Held back in recent years by shoddy protection, a misused, insufficiently targeted, and disconnected primary receiver in Amari Cooper, lack of run support, and some bad ownership, among other things, Derek Carr is arguably one of the league's most underrated quarterbacks. While his overall stats don't quite reflect it, Carr took off last year to amass 12 touchdowns to two interceptions in his final 11 games, all of which came after Cooper's departure. He finished with a career-best 4,049 yards and 68.9 percent completion rate.
Coach Gruden has emphasized to Carr that he needs to throw downfield more often, which is smart, because, in two of the past three years, Carr achieved the highest accuracy rate in deep balls. Expect Carr to do a better job playing to his strengths.
Carr Can Expect Much Better Support
When Carr had that MVP-caliber season in 2016, he had strong protection and high-quality wide receivers. It's easy to write off Oakland's offensive line based on last year. The key to its improvement will be left tackle Kolton Miller. He gave up zero sacks in the first three games of the season when he was healthy and likewise zero sacks in three of Oakland's final five games as he was recovering his health. Most of the 16 sacks that he allowed came when he was struggling with injury, which makes it extremely unfair to dismiss Oakland's former first-round pick.
Moreover, the Raiders acquired Trent Brown from the Patriots to add stability to the right side. They also return the league's best center in multiple-time Pro Bowler Rodney Hudson, who, last year, was one of three offensive linemen to allow one or zero quarterback hits or sacks.
At wide receiver, Antonio Brown is a constant deep threat and will draw significant attention from Denver's secondary. But the deep-threat ability of Tyrell Williams shouldn't be underestimated, either, as, since 2016, he has the fourth-best yards-per-target rate of receivers targeted at least 250 times.
Denver's Pass Defense Is Overrated
The strength of Denver's defense is absolutely its pass rush. Besides having to deal with improved Oakland protection, Carr has two reliable weapons in case he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. One weapon is running back Josh Jacobs, who earned the sixth-best receiving grade of FBS running backs who were targeted at least 50 times since 2016. He was superb at forcing defenders to miss their tackles, which allowed him to turn routine dump-offs into bigger plays. Jalen Richards is the second weapon, a proven pass-catching commodity who caught 68 passes of 81 targets last year for 607 yards.
Both Richards and Jacobs are viable pass-catching targets against a Denver defense that, based on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ranked in the bottom half in defending pass-catching running backs.
Regarding the rest of Denver's secondary, its top corner, Chris Harris, is very good, although he'll more than have his hands full with Brown. But Denver's secondary is not what it once was. Last year, it ranked 20th, as measured by opposing yards. Denver did try to improve its secondary in the offseason, but I don't think either addition will change much. One signing is safety Kareem Jackson, who's more of a run-stopper.
Bryce Callahan was a highly regarded cornerback signing. But Callahan really benefited from playing on a Bears defense that was led by a vicious Khalil Mack-led pass rush. It's easier for cornerbacks to succeed when the pass rush is strong because it gives opposing quarterbacks less time to think and wide receivers less time to get open. I think Callahan will regress towards his 2017 numbers in which he ranked 102nd in receptions allowed.
Denver's Offense Can't Keep Pace
Joe Flacco is an average quarterback, nothing more, whose passer rating was under 85 in each of his past four seasons with Baltimore. Emmanuel Sanders has seen two targets since recovering from an achilles injury and promises to be rusty. Courtland Sutton looks like Denver's most promising receiver after catching 42 of 84 targets last season and eclipsing 700 yards. He doesn't look ready to take a leading role in the receiving corps and there isn't much else to hope for as otherwise only Tim Patrick surpassed 300 receiving yards.
The strength of Denver's offensive attack is unequivocally its run game, which will run into an Oakland interior defense led by Mo Hurst, the fifth-highest-graded defensive tackle in the AFC West. Brandon Marshall and Vontaze Burfict promise to return to Pro Bowl-caliber play with their change in scenery.
Conclusion
Oakland's offense looks promising in its completeness -- Carr is a very accurate passer surrounded by an improved offensive line and weapons both downfield and out of the backfield. Denver's offense completely lacks playmakers in the passing game while its run game can only affect so much by itself and against a higher-talented Raider front seven.
Broncos Are Dead Meat Against Chucky's Raiders
Denver at Oakland
When: Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NFL Pick: Raiders ATS
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Oakland as three-point favorites. But bettors have made the Broncos small favorites. I suspect that the shift in odds is explainable by the drama surrounding Antonio Brown -- or, more accurately, the media's non-stop coverage of it and the negative publicity afforded to Oakland's franchise.
Think of Oakland what you will, Antonio Brown will play and his presence helps give Oakland a clear edge.
Oakland's Offensive Success Begins With Derek Carr
Held back in recent years by shoddy protection, a misused, insufficiently targeted, and disconnected primary receiver in Amari Cooper, lack of run support, and some bad ownership, among other things, Derek Carr is arguably one of the league's most underrated quarterbacks. While his overall stats don't quite reflect it, Carr took off last year to amass 12 touchdowns to two interceptions in his final 11 games, all of which came after Cooper's departure. He finished with a career-best 4,049 yards and 68.9 percent completion rate.
Coach Gruden has emphasized to Carr that he needs to throw downfield more often, which is smart, because, in two of the past three years, Carr achieved the highest accuracy rate in deep balls. Expect Carr to do a better job playing to his strengths.
Carr Can Expect Much Better Support
When Carr had that MVP-caliber season in 2016, he had strong protection and high-quality wide receivers. It's easy to write off Oakland's offensive line based on last year. The key to its improvement will be left tackle Kolton Miller. He gave up zero sacks in the first three games of the season when he was healthy and likewise zero sacks in three of Oakland's final five games as he was recovering his health. Most of the 16 sacks that he allowed came when he was struggling with injury, which makes it extremely unfair to dismiss Oakland's former first-round pick.
Moreover, the Raiders acquired Trent Brown from the Patriots to add stability to the right side. They also return the league's best center in multiple-time Pro Bowler Rodney Hudson, who, last year, was one of three offensive linemen to allow one or zero quarterback hits or sacks.
At wide receiver, Antonio Brown is a constant deep threat and will draw significant attention from Denver's secondary. But the deep-threat ability of Tyrell Williams shouldn't be underestimated, either, as, since 2016, he has the fourth-best yards-per-target rate of receivers targeted at least 250 times.
Denver's Pass Defense Is Overrated
The strength of Denver's defense is absolutely its pass rush. Besides having to deal with improved Oakland protection, Carr has two reliable weapons in case he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. One weapon is running back Josh Jacobs, who earned the sixth-best receiving grade of FBS running backs who were targeted at least 50 times since 2016. He was superb at forcing defenders to miss their tackles, which allowed him to turn routine dump-offs into bigger plays. Jalen Richards is the second weapon, a proven pass-catching commodity who caught 68 passes of 81 targets last year for 607 yards.
Both Richards and Jacobs are viable pass-catching targets against a Denver defense that, based on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ranked in the bottom half in defending pass-catching running backs.
Regarding the rest of Denver's secondary, its top corner, Chris Harris, is very good, although he'll more than have his hands full with Brown. But Denver's secondary is not what it once was. Last year, it ranked 20th, as measured by opposing yards. Denver did try to improve its secondary in the offseason, but I don't think either addition will change much. One signing is safety Kareem Jackson, who's more of a run-stopper.
Bryce Callahan was a highly regarded cornerback signing. But Callahan really benefited from playing on a Bears defense that was led by a vicious Khalil Mack-led pass rush. It's easier for cornerbacks to succeed when the pass rush is strong because it gives opposing quarterbacks less time to think and wide receivers less time to get open. I think Callahan will regress towards his 2017 numbers in which he ranked 102nd in receptions allowed.
Denver's Offense Can't Keep Pace
Joe Flacco is an average quarterback, nothing more, whose passer rating was under 85 in each of his past four seasons with Baltimore. Emmanuel Sanders has seen two targets since recovering from an achilles injury and promises to be rusty. Courtland Sutton looks like Denver's most promising receiver after catching 42 of 84 targets last season and eclipsing 700 yards. He doesn't look ready to take a leading role in the receiving corps and there isn't much else to hope for as otherwise only Tim Patrick surpassed 300 receiving yards.
The strength of Denver's offensive attack is unequivocally its run game, which will run into an Oakland interior defense led by Mo Hurst, the fifth-highest-graded defensive tackle in the AFC West. Brandon Marshall and Vontaze Burfict promise to return to Pro Bowl-caliber play with their change in scenery.
Conclusion
Oakland's offense looks promising in its completeness -- Carr is a very accurate passer surrounded by an improved offensive line and weapons both downfield and out of the backfield. Denver's offense completely lacks playmakers in the passing game while its run game can only affect so much by itself and against a higher-talented Raider front seven.
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