NFL Parlay For Sunday’s Games at +209 Odds
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland
Baker Mayfield’s Pattern
Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has been subject to a lot of criticism. Some people may not want to rely on him in order to win a bet.
But at least there is a clear and identifiable pattern that allows us to predict when he will play well.
Against the Ravens, Colts, and Steelers, his passer rating was below 75.
Against the Bengals (x2), Cowboys, and Redskins, his passer rating was 100 or better.
The pattern is that Mayfield struggles with passes defenses that rank top 10 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a metric that accounts for opponent quality) — the Ravens, Colts, and Steelers all rank top-10 in this category.
However, Mayfield thrives against the lower-quality pass defense. The Bengals and Cowboys rank worse than 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Redskins actually rank highly in pass defense DVOA, but he had a strong passer rating against them purely due to a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio.
As for his upcoming opponent, Las Vegas ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. Per the pattern, we should expect Mayfield to thrive this Sunday. Expect relatively more passing yards, greater efficiency, and multiple passing touchdowns from Mayfield.
What About Odell Beckham Jr.?
Early in Cleveland’s last contest, Odell Beckham Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. Does this allay our optimism?
Mayfield’s performance in that game — a 37-34 win for Cleveland — establishes a solid “definitely not” answer to the question.
In fact, I actually like Beckham Jr.’s absence. He has a lot of ego and puts pressure on Mayfield to throw him the ball.
In Odell’s absence, Donovan Peoples-Jones stepped up. He caught the game-winning touchdown on Sunday.
DPJ has always been touted for his freakish physical and athletic skills. The question had been primarily about polishing his route-running abilities. On Sunday, though, he caught all three targets for 56 yards and a touchdown.
Baker’s options at wide receivers remain more than sufficient with five-time Pro Bowler Jarvis Landry.
Tight end Austin Hooper, who had a breakout season with Atlanta last year and is in his first season with Cleveland, is building chemistry with Mayfield and has enjoyed his two highest yardage totals in his past two games.
Raiders’ Run Game
Offensively, Las Vegas is known for conservative play-calling. Quarterback Derek Carr gets flack for being conservative and for checking down too frequently.
Running back Josh Jacobs is supposed to help solidify a power run game.
But the Raiders have suffered a number of injuries on their offensive line — to starting guard Richie Incognito and others — that have made this conservative inclination impractical.
Given the banged-up quality of the Las Vegas o-line, Jacobs is averaging a meager 3.4 YPC.
Raider Passing Game vs. Browns Secondary
To make up for the lack of power running game, Carr is being more aggressive. For our “over” bet, this is just what we want: bigger pass plays and less clock being drained by a power running focus.
Next Gen Stats shows what I mean: last year, Carr ranked second-to-last with an 11.7 aggression percentage. This year, he ranks upper-half with a 17.1 aggression percentage.
Part of why Carr is able to be more aggressive this season is the presence of 4.3 40-yard dash speedster Henry Ruggs who can use his speed to take the top off of any defense. He’s accruing 26.5 YPC.
Like last year, supremely athletic and acrobatic tight end Darren Waller is Carr’s favorite target. He’s caught 40 of 55 targets. Carr also shows increasing rapport with wide receiver Nelson Agholor, who topped 100 yards against the Bucs’ pass defense.
Quite unlike Carr’s last opponent, the Browns are vulnerable in the back. Partly because they miss Greedy Williams and fellow defensive back Grant Delpit to extended injuries, the Browns rank 25th in pass defense DVOA.
The Verdict
This will be a great game for both quarterbacks as they encounter low-quality secondaries.
When Mayfield thrives, 30 point outputs are very normal for Cleveland. The same is true for Carr and Las Vegas. Expect both teams to put up at least 30 points.
Yet the total posted by oddsmakers is much lower than 60.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-108) with Heritage
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
The Rise Of Justin Herbert
Charger quarterback Justin Herbert has accumulated a passer rating of well over 100 in each of his past three games.
His strong performances include one against Tampa Bay, which ranks first in pass defense DVOA.
You see an example of his strong arm, his anticipation even on deeper balls, and his accuracy at 4:33.
At 7:15, you see the same thing with Herbert under pressure. He stands tall in the pocket, takes the hit, and delivers a perfect throw.
At 2:30, he uses his mobility in order to manipulate opposing defenders into unpropitious positions, which allows him to find an open wide receiver.
His mobility is an underrated feature of his game. But it makes his weaponry more diverse. Last week, he ran for 66 yards with a touchdown against Jacksonville.
But most importantly, he is burgeoning as a passer who is accurate in or outside of the pocket and who boasts a strong arm. He has chemistry with his wide receivers now and his team knows how to employ him well.
The Struggles of Drew Lock
Unlike Herbert, Denver quarterback Drew Lock is struggling to be productive at all.
His passer rating has remained below 100 in all of his games so far. In each of his past three games, it was below 60.
Lock’s four interceptions in his past two games are perhaps a partial product of a shoulder injury that he suffered.
But even ongoing shoulder issues do not explain away the number of other things that Lock is doing wrong.
In contrast to Herbert, Lock does not have good pocket presence. Instead of stepping up in the pocket, he’s too quick to bail.
His lack of accuracy is also reflected in his 55.9 percent completion percentage.
The Difference
The difference between each team’s passing game is decisive. Both teams rank similarly in terms of pass defense, run offense, and so forth.
Herbert is helping his Chargers routinely score between 27 and 39 points while Lock’s Broncos routinely struggle to reach 20 points.
For the above reasons, count on the former Duck to lead the Chargers to victory.
Best Bet: Chargers ML at -165 with Heritage
Parlay Bet: Raiders/Browns Over 52.5 (-108) and Chargers ML (-165) with Heritage at +209
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland
Baker Mayfield’s Pattern
Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has been subject to a lot of criticism. Some people may not want to rely on him in order to win a bet.
But at least there is a clear and identifiable pattern that allows us to predict when he will play well.
Against the Ravens, Colts, and Steelers, his passer rating was below 75.
Against the Bengals (x2), Cowboys, and Redskins, his passer rating was 100 or better.
The pattern is that Mayfield struggles with passes defenses that rank top 10 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a metric that accounts for opponent quality) — the Ravens, Colts, and Steelers all rank top-10 in this category.
However, Mayfield thrives against the lower-quality pass defense. The Bengals and Cowboys rank worse than 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Redskins actually rank highly in pass defense DVOA, but he had a strong passer rating against them purely due to a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio.
As for his upcoming opponent, Las Vegas ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. Per the pattern, we should expect Mayfield to thrive this Sunday. Expect relatively more passing yards, greater efficiency, and multiple passing touchdowns from Mayfield.
What About Odell Beckham Jr.?
Early in Cleveland’s last contest, Odell Beckham Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. Does this allay our optimism?
Mayfield’s performance in that game — a 37-34 win for Cleveland — establishes a solid “definitely not” answer to the question.
In fact, I actually like Beckham Jr.’s absence. He has a lot of ego and puts pressure on Mayfield to throw him the ball.
In Odell’s absence, Donovan Peoples-Jones stepped up. He caught the game-winning touchdown on Sunday.
DPJ has always been touted for his freakish physical and athletic skills. The question had been primarily about polishing his route-running abilities. On Sunday, though, he caught all three targets for 56 yards and a touchdown.
Baker’s options at wide receivers remain more than sufficient with five-time Pro Bowler Jarvis Landry.
Tight end Austin Hooper, who had a breakout season with Atlanta last year and is in his first season with Cleveland, is building chemistry with Mayfield and has enjoyed his two highest yardage totals in his past two games.
Raiders’ Run Game
Offensively, Las Vegas is known for conservative play-calling. Quarterback Derek Carr gets flack for being conservative and for checking down too frequently.
Running back Josh Jacobs is supposed to help solidify a power run game.
But the Raiders have suffered a number of injuries on their offensive line — to starting guard Richie Incognito and others — that have made this conservative inclination impractical.
Given the banged-up quality of the Las Vegas o-line, Jacobs is averaging a meager 3.4 YPC.
Raider Passing Game vs. Browns Secondary
To make up for the lack of power running game, Carr is being more aggressive. For our “over” bet, this is just what we want: bigger pass plays and less clock being drained by a power running focus.
Next Gen Stats shows what I mean: last year, Carr ranked second-to-last with an 11.7 aggression percentage. This year, he ranks upper-half with a 17.1 aggression percentage.
Part of why Carr is able to be more aggressive this season is the presence of 4.3 40-yard dash speedster Henry Ruggs who can use his speed to take the top off of any defense. He’s accruing 26.5 YPC.
Like last year, supremely athletic and acrobatic tight end Darren Waller is Carr’s favorite target. He’s caught 40 of 55 targets. Carr also shows increasing rapport with wide receiver Nelson Agholor, who topped 100 yards against the Bucs’ pass defense.
Quite unlike Carr’s last opponent, the Browns are vulnerable in the back. Partly because they miss Greedy Williams and fellow defensive back Grant Delpit to extended injuries, the Browns rank 25th in pass defense DVOA.
The Verdict
This will be a great game for both quarterbacks as they encounter low-quality secondaries.
When Mayfield thrives, 30 point outputs are very normal for Cleveland. The same is true for Carr and Las Vegas. Expect both teams to put up at least 30 points.
Yet the total posted by oddsmakers is much lower than 60.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-108) with Heritage
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
The Rise Of Justin Herbert
Charger quarterback Justin Herbert has accumulated a passer rating of well over 100 in each of his past three games.
His strong performances include one against Tampa Bay, which ranks first in pass defense DVOA.
You see an example of his strong arm, his anticipation even on deeper balls, and his accuracy at 4:33.
At 7:15, you see the same thing with Herbert under pressure. He stands tall in the pocket, takes the hit, and delivers a perfect throw.
At 2:30, he uses his mobility in order to manipulate opposing defenders into unpropitious positions, which allows him to find an open wide receiver.
His mobility is an underrated feature of his game. But it makes his weaponry more diverse. Last week, he ran for 66 yards with a touchdown against Jacksonville.
But most importantly, he is burgeoning as a passer who is accurate in or outside of the pocket and who boasts a strong arm. He has chemistry with his wide receivers now and his team knows how to employ him well.
The Struggles of Drew Lock
Unlike Herbert, Denver quarterback Drew Lock is struggling to be productive at all.
His passer rating has remained below 100 in all of his games so far. In each of his past three games, it was below 60.
Lock’s four interceptions in his past two games are perhaps a partial product of a shoulder injury that he suffered.
But even ongoing shoulder issues do not explain away the number of other things that Lock is doing wrong.
In contrast to Herbert, Lock does not have good pocket presence. Instead of stepping up in the pocket, he’s too quick to bail.
His lack of accuracy is also reflected in his 55.9 percent completion percentage.
The Difference
The difference between each team’s passing game is decisive. Both teams rank similarly in terms of pass defense, run offense, and so forth.
Herbert is helping his Chargers routinely score between 27 and 39 points while Lock’s Broncos routinely struggle to reach 20 points.
For the above reasons, count on the former Duck to lead the Chargers to victory.
Best Bet: Chargers ML at -165 with Heritage
Parlay Bet: Raiders/Browns Over 52.5 (-108) and Chargers ML (-165) with Heritage at +209
