Quick writeup on Colorado

[tuck321]

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All-Star
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 13884
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[TD="class: forumpost-post"]#74
Posted: 5/1/2014 2:52:06 PM
Going to do the short version so I have time to look at the other games
Short version starts last night. After 3 innings Colorado was up 4-0.
They were defending their boy Lyles so they got him a lead but had no intention of winning the game. Lyles left up 4-1 after 6. The funniest thing about the game was when Cahill went 2 innings with no hit or walk. Cahill has averaged slightly over a run an inning at home this year and Colorado has faced him over 50 innings but he was Tough last night. What we are looking at is Colorado going 6 innings last night without bothering to score or win the game. Why?
Colorado has lost 4 in a row to the Mets and Jumbo Giant Colon has won 2 at Colorado.
Nicasio has pitched for Colorado through 2011 and has lost his last 2 games though the loss at Colorado was more of a group thing and not really his fault.
He is not a great pitcher and the Mets should hit him fairly well as he is weak vs left handed hitters. Do not see it making any difference.
Do I seem to wander here. Not really.
Colorado this year after a LOSS. is 10-3
Colorado at home after a loss
12-2 win vs Arizona
8-1 win vs WS
10-4 win vs WS
8-2 win vs SF
That is all 4. No one has survived.
Colorado dumped that game last night as insurance to make sure they won Today and in this situation they win BIG.
i expect today will be the same. BOL
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[Dollaz]

Colorado dumping the game last night makes absolutely no sense to me, but I am leaning that way on the pick.

The Mets aren't even a rival; I doubt they know or care how many times they've lost to them.

 

[tuck321]

Can understand that but---when Colorado went 6 innings against Arizona pitching without scoring a run did THAT make sense.

 

[peelpub94]

Really nice write up. But the long story short is the Rockies have covered the spread in 7 out of 8 wins at home.

 

[Dollaz]

Can understand that but---when Colorado went 6 innings against Arizona pitching without scoring a run did THAT make sense.

It happens. They weren't being dominated or anything, they put balls in play....the hits just didn't fall. Why would they purposely score 4 runs and then tank?

 

[tuck321]

I think what I was pointing too was that if they LOST it put them in a spot where they always win. Not starting bad.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Good stuff

 

[bloodhound]

nice calls of late tuck...ur seeing the games well, continued success :shake:

 

[consilience]

Great stuff as per usual, tuck. You're a beast.

 

[C-MAN]

Well done Tuck

 

[B.A.R.]

:thumbsup2:

 

[Dollaz]

Get it Tuck

 

[peelpub94]

Run line continues to hit for the Rockies at home. Forget anything else. If you like the Rockies at home in any given match up just bet the -1.5.

 

[tuck321]

No. You should always look at 2.5. Have mentioned this before.
So far 7 games where 2.50 hit
1 game ended on a 1 point win that was a divisional rival
1 game where the win was by 2
Last night I split
1/3rd by 1.5
2/3rds by 2.5 which paid 2.50
Still looking at this as I think the 2.5's should go down
1

 

[peelpub94]

No. You should always look at 2.5. Have mentioned this before.
So far 7 games where 2.50 hit
1 game ended on a 1 point win that was a divisional rival
1 game where the win was by 2
Last night I split
1/3rd by 1.5
2/3rds by 2.5 which paid 2.50
Still looking at this as I think the 2.5's should go down
1

Yeah, that's awesome too. Without crunching too many numbers I wonder if the 2.5 angle is due to come down a bit though. Getting +150 regularly on the -1.5 is safe and profitable enough for me

 

[tuck321]

It should come down.
I think you have to feel your way
and try and avoid it in divisional games for example