Question regarding totals in the MLB

[Pucks]

Obviously I am asking cause I took the Twinkies @ ChiSox Over.

I am pretty pissed about this cause everything and I mean everything pointed toward the OVER IMO.

When it looks to good to be true it does obviously.

What did I miss in this game and if anyone took the UNDER.

Explain why you took the UNDER please.

I really need to fix this for next year. :shake:

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Obviously I am asking cause I took the Twinkies @ ChiSox Over.

I am pretty pissed about this cause everything and I mean everything pointed toward the OVER IMO.

When it looks to good to be true it does obviously.

What did I miss in this game and if anyone took the UNDER.

Explain why you took the UNDER please.

I really need to fix this for next year. :shake:

I had no bet on this but I'll just type my thoughts on this.

Sometimes the bigger the game the more likely hitters press and swing at bad pitches. I've also noticed that umpires tend to enhance their strike zone in postseason games. Also, sometimes all it takes is an above average pitcher throwing their very best to shut down an offense.

I would consider blindly bettting the under in every postseason game. Last year if I remember correctly at my book 66.6% of the postseason games went under. I did more research on postseason results and I was struck by how extreme the results were with regards to totals. Nearly all games go WAY over or WAY under. Very few in between and near the number. Pay attention to each series as they develop their own character.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The reason I didn't bet Over is because, even knowing all those stats, I felt each team would be tight & I didn't see either team as a clear winner.

You can have teams tight going into crucial playoff games that then go Over, but they usually go Over because 1 team is a clear winner - think Boston beating Cleveland last season 11-2 & 12-2., when a loss in either game eliminates them. Boston's players would have had whatever degree of tightness about them, but they got into a flow and bam. Here you had 2 teams, who'd gone toe to toe with each other the whole season hth wise, thrust into a game 7 situation.

After thats said, I also think the 2 DPs in the 1st inning set the tone of the game in the players minds. If each team had scored their initial runner on rather than losing him to a DP (so 1-1 after 1, not 0-0), I think you'd have seen a totally different game. How things go early in a game are crucial to setting up the expectations in players mindsets - 2 DPs said runs are going to be hard to come by/defensive ball game here guys and that's what they then produced.

In elimination games I think Under unless there's a clearly recognisable winner.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I would consider blindly bettting the under in every postseason game. Last year if I remember correctly at my book 66.6%

O/U 12-14-2 last post season,
but that was O/U 8-6-2 in the AL, and O/U 4-8 in the NL.

The NL was infected by Philly & Cubs offenses which choked, and an AZ offense which simply sucked dick.

 

[Pucks]

Sometimes the bigger the game the more likely hitters press and swing at bad pitches.

Everything you said does make sense and the problem is I didn't treat this like a postseason play. I have notice Unders a lot in the Postseason

Now the part in bold my brother said the same thing to me during the game. Which was too late. :36_11_6:

 

[Pucks]

The reason I didn't bet Over is because, even knowing all those stats, I felt each team would be tight & I didn't see either team as a clear winner.

You can have teams tight going into crucial playoff games that then go Over, but they usually go Over because 1 team is a clear winner - think Boston beating Cleveland last season 11-2 & 12-2., when a loss in either game eliminates them. Boston's players would have had whatever degree of tightness about them, but they got into a flow and bam. Here you had 2 teams, who'd gone toe to toe with each other the whole season hth wise, thrust into a game 7 situation.

After thats said, I also think the 2 DPs in the 1st inning set the tone of the game in the players minds. If each team had scored their initial runner on rather than losing him to a DP (so 1-1 after 1, not 0-0), I think you'd have seen a totally different game. How things go early in a game are crucial to setting up the expectations in players mindsets - 2 DPs said runs are going to be hard to come by/defensive ball game here guys and that's what they then produced.

In elimination games I think Under unless there's a clearly recognisable winner.

That part in bold is very crucial in a Twinkies game.

Funny thing is it is either Casilla or Morneau that kill rally's at times for the Twinkies of late.

Morneau mind you has been awful the last week at bat.

 

[Pucks]

This is not the 1st time that I have questioned Overs I have taken.

It seems that when you get 2 shitty pitchers they are CY YOUNG pitchers that game.

I know we can't win every bet but I try to figure out were I fudged up.

Thanks for you opinions guys. :shake:

 

[SportsNut]

I liked the over but backed off but still played the OVER RHE Prop.

Basically everyone has it covered already. These games to get to the postseason are played like postseason games . We can go back to Sunday aven Sat seemed every meaningful game went UNDER .

There was some warning signs as bookes reduced the total to 9 at alot of places despite the glaring over bias and angles pointing to an under . One thing I kinda weighed was the fact WS had 6 hits yet 8 runs yeterday ...

From a picthing standpoint Danks was in unchartered territory going on short rest you could tell how he would react but it seems opnly LHPs and power RHPs have any success on short rest . Dont know why really . Also while overall stats were poor for each SP vs opponent if we looked game by game the stats wernt so bad . I think we could say reasonably that Blacburn could go 5 innings and allow 2 runs while ther Twins pen has a crap road ERA we also know they had rest and would use only there key guys . With Minny they have really struggled vs LHSP lately on the road often scoring but a few runs vs uality LHSPs . So thinking best case Twins score 4 runs could be reasonable and thinkinh they score 3 runs is likely simply looking at what they did vs quality LHPs recently on the road ....so in alot ways I think it was reasonable to expect 8 runs IF and iys a huge IF neither SP got wrecked . Blackburn just saw Chicago and Danks was in unchartered territory on short rest and off his worst start .......

Its a guessing game for sure there were some clues but its hard to say they were glaring . It was matter of what one had faith in .....

Just lets get condition to look for unders in the 1st few opening games especially .......Dont beat yourself up here its better to lose 1-0 then 7-1 in my book.....:cheers:

 

[Pucks]

Sportsnut it all makes sense for sure and yes I would rather have the score 1 - 0.

Thanks :shake:

 

[Trueblue]

There are a number of things you have to consider in today's game.

1. This is a playoff game where stats can go out the window. You can't bank on an emerging star like Danks to pitch a gem like he did, but it is fact that minni had to get off their couches to come play a game that probably wouldnt be played if Gallaraga bothered to warm up fully before throwing 2 wild pitches to screw the game.

2. The wind was blowing out. True. But it was also 50degrees. You have to realize that this is the coldest game played at US Cellular after the warm weather. It takes at least a few games to get used to the weather adjustment, and i think it kind of showed today. I look to hit some of the first few cold games that are played in the midwest first series.

3. CWS are a homerun driven team. Cold weather does not favor slugging. Thome is a beast, there is nothing you can do about that flyball HR, but the ball did not carry well otherwise. I would have thought that a team like minni who plays small-ball can capitalize with the power hindrance, but they could not capitalize with men on base. They played conservative with no hit and run. Power pitchers fare much better in playoffs as well, as they always have a bail out pitch. Both of these guys were able to close their 2 strike ABs tonight.

I bet the first 5 under, but did not expect a 0-1 game. That's baseball for yah..

 

[Trueblue]

Guillen would also have exhausted every single man in the bullpen if he had to in order to get the W. Although this could backfire, a desperate team can produce surprising results at both ends of the spectrum....but usually to the under.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Puck, pitching is paramount when it comes to October play. Expect the best from every arm in the majors, and expect pitching to be the deciding factor. I have limited time betting bases, but using this belief I went 4-0 on series bets last postseason and cashed my Boston future to win it all at +800. GL this postseason.

 

[brewer]

Juan Uribe had one of the worst at-bats I have ever seen in this game tonight. I don't even know if he had any idea what he was trying to do at the dish.

Danks was so filthy after striking out Mauer twice he tried to bunt for a base hit in his third at bat.

Also, I think this notion that pitchers can't go on 3 days is nonsense. Wouldn't be suprised if some teams start going with 4 man rotations next year or in coming years.

 

[Pucks]

Puck, pitching is paramount when it comes to October play. Expect the best from every arm in the majors, and expect pitching to be the deciding factor. I have limited time betting bases, but using this belief I went 4-0 on series bets last postseason and cashed my Boston future to win it all at +800. GL this postseason.

I know Pitching is essential for the playoffs like goaltenders are in hockey.

They are the key to winning a championship but in reality no one expected these two pitchers to pitch lights out, I don't think anyways.

I did miss the cold weather factor

 

[SportsNut]

Juan Uribe had one of the worst at-bats I have ever seen in this game tonight. I don't even know if he had any idea what he was trying to do at the dish.

Danks was so filthy after striking out Mauer twice he tried to bunt for a base hit in his third at bat.

Also, I think this notion that pitchers can't go on 3 days is nonsense. Wouldn't be suprised if some teams start going with 4 man rotations next year or in coming years.

The notion is based on repeated failure of pitchers who go on short rest . In 2008 there have been pitchers who have stepped up and answered the bell but CC Sabathia doesnt count , He really doesnt . Simplyu because I already labeled him as the one SP who it didntmatter how many pitches he threw . If he threw 120 no big deal so the idea his big ass can work on short rest is backed by his already proven ability to have no issues throwing 120 something pitches and then coming back on normal rest repeatedly ......

Danks did a womderful job here no doubt . Johna Santana had finally done it well after trying with no success in previous seasons maybe facing an NL team jhelped ....

The reason why they cant do it is simple conditioing more then anything . I dont think anyone realizes how fragile a pitcher's arm is. You cant ask someone to just go out an dthrow 22o innings on 3 days rest when since the age of 5 there arems get babied . Everyone belives Kerry Wood was overworked before he became a Cub and that ruined his career . Didnt he throw liek a 170 pitches in a High School game ? MLB is a fraid of change as well as afraid of the 1st 100 million dollar investement they ruin when switching to 3 days . Some players wont be able to handle it and some will ......Its not impossible its just there is alot at stake and a recent performance of failure ....:shake:Oh and the Twins suck offensively .....