Question or really looking for help??

D

Danielttu

Member
My bookie hands out a sheet on wed with all NCAA and NFL and the lines are locked in. The first week I did really good and the last two weeks have been a wash. Where would you cut the total and side line moves off at? I think I might be playing to many games? Then again with the value is there a thing as to many?
 
total I would maybe make it a 6 point adjustment but that's just a comfort level thing
 
That's kind of where I was leaning. I have been playing 4pt swings on totals. How about in the nfl and crossing key numbers?
 
CollegeKingRex said:
i sure would love to have an account with this guy, lmao
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A hometown bar does the same thing... $20 max and minimum three game and a max of five game parlays. Been trying to help some buddies with theirs. There's been some huge swings (Jameis being suspended was a huge one I can think of - they had FSU -21.5 vs Clemson)
 
Yes, I had that one. My max is 500 so I should be able to make some cash, but I tend to screw things up! I guess I was just making sure I was on the right path.
 
My local did this before he got a website with live updating lines, but there was a max $ amount. If you wanted to bet more, you were given the current line
 
Mine is this way also......yet I've failed to exploit and I make a liar out of CC with his "impossible to lose long term" statement!!

$500 or more goes to live line.
 
D-Woww said:
Can you hook us all up with your guy? This would be a gold mine
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These sound like parlay cards he's talking about. Those I have seen are total losing propositions, complete sucker bets. You need to hit a minimum 3 team parlay where ties lose. There is usually a one pt no mans land on the totals also, over 55 or under 53. The one positive is the line movement in your favor but not enough to make these worthwhile.

But you may be talking about something completely different, if so ignore everything I said.
 
kobe911 said:
Mine is this way also......yet I've failed to exploit and I make a liar out of CC with his "impossible to lose long term" statement!!

$500 or more goes to live line.
Click to expand...


Why not just bet every bad line for $450 on Saturday AM? No more capping...just bet the bad lines
 
These do sound like parlay cards, as zeke said. I used to run those in high school, you had to hit three. Parlay cards in the fall, "six-hit" bets in the spring. I didn't have anyone betting $500 dollars a ticket though.
 
No parlay card here. It is the real deal. His lines do not move as of wed at 4:00. I was not gambling this year and went to the poker game am heard what he was doing and thought hold shit! I was just wondering how you guys would attack it.
 
Schrute that's what I am trying, but was wondering what everbody would call a "bad line" on totals and sides( NCAA and NFL). I just need to stay away from 1/2 time bets and bets I THINK I like.
 
pay attention to line movements an look at current lines when u put them in on gameday. agree wit kyle, or clowncar or clowntruck whatever he is now, u should be able to take advantage of this wit no problem
 
Schrute said:
Why not just bet every bad line for $450 on Saturday AM? No more capping...just bet the bad lines
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Because that would be too easy! I guess I haven't really followed the "bad" lines that closely in the past.......maybe I will have to "follow this system closely!"
 
Danielttu said:
Tru that's what I am doing. I was just curious as how much movement I should account for to make it a play.
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If you have access to the old cards I would compare those lines with the closing lines on scoresandodds.com and see if there was a 3pt swing it was x-y, a 4pt swing, etc and then figure out what a good number would be. Would really be a small sample size though right now.
 
tru said:
pay attention to line movements an look at current lines when u put them in on gameday. agree wit kyle, or clowncar or clowntruck whatever he is now, u should be able to take advantage of this wit no problem
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:rofl:
 
It is crazy to think that in 2014 there are sooooo many old-school type bookies who think it is 1990. Jesus.

I need to find a sucker around here like that.
 
Take this with a grain of salt cause I can't pick ATS to save my fucking life. On thing I do know is line movement is not always telling. I was able to get "value plays" through my local on hockey totals. He was always -110 so I could get 50 or 60 cents value quite frequently. Doesn't mean it's going to pan out though. Sometimes the line movement is correct. Sure you're getting value taking an opener when it moves 3.5 come gameday but the line movement could be justified. I tend to think if it were "that easy" your bookie would be busted by now, someone would've figured it out.
 
I would look at hockey over/unders if that is a option likes Zeke mentioned, the problem and frustration of this type of betting is even if your selective and you lose a number of games that you normally wouldn't be on or even possibly on the other side and lose it sucks
BOL
 
Danielttu said:
Cubs, what % would it have to be for you to play it?
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Your bet size should be determined by how big your edge is. A big part of it is how risk tolerant you are. Only you can decide what Kelly Multiplier to use. A pretty conservative strategy is to use quarter kelly. Go to http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/ and enter .25 as your Kelly Multiplier and then you can enter what your bankroll is and then enter what your edge is and it will tell you how much to bet.
 
And don't buy into bullshit about line movement being wrong. Of course it's wrong some of the time. Who gives a shit? If you consistently beat the closing line in NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and MLB markets you will win in the long run. It's that simple.
 
cubsker said:
Your bet size should be determined by how big your edge is. A big part of it is how risk tolerant you are. Only you can decide what Kelly Multiplier to use. A pretty conservative strategy is to use quarter kelly. Go to http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/ and enter .25 as your Kelly Multiplier and then you can enter what your bankroll is and then enter what your edge is and it will tell you how much to bet.
Click to expand...


Ok, I went to the .5 point calculator and it gave me a 25.8% edge on tonight's New Mexico game. I can get 47 still. I went to the Kelly and put in .25 and with the edge it gave me 7.3. So is that saying to bet 7% of my bankroll?
 
cubsker said:
you sure you have a 25.82% edge. What bet can you make that is giving you that?
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47 as a total on tonight's N Mexico game is what he mentioned. It looks like that's a full 7 pts under the current total.
 
oh, i see now. Yeah, that looks right to me. Getting 7 or 8 pts on a total is monstrous and deserves a large bet. What you are going to run into on Saturdays and Sundays is too many events going at the same time where you have huge edges. That's why the calculator allows you to have simultaneous events where you can enter in your edges for each. This will result in lower bet sizes.
 
the other thing you could do to try to quickly build your roll is overbet with your local and hedge elsewhere looking for middles. Tonight's game is a perfect example for when I would do that.
 
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