Question about player totals / working out correct odds

[ConorB]

Hi Guys,

So hopefully someone can help answer to this question... a certain bookmaker here in the UK often do an 'enhanced' price offer on NBA games where they will say 'Player A OVER 26.5 points & Team A' to win +300 (this is just an example) and sometimes it is easy to see if the bet is actually good value or terrible value but sometimes it's trickier.

Anyway tonight they are offering Steph Curry over 29.5 & GSW to win at 5/2 (+250)

So I can see Golden State are -450 and Currys line (with this book at least) is 26.5 (over / under -115)

I have two questions -

(1) How can i work out what odds the over 29.5 should be if the actual line is 26.5? I mean 30 is close to 10% more than 27... it should be about 6/4 (+150) I guess?

(2) Does this bet look good value to you?

Personally I am leaning towards taking the bet for a small stake but I would really like to know how much each point is worth on a players total and if there is an easy way to work this out?

Thanks,
Conor

 

[pip2]

I can’t provide super expertise in this question, but killersports shows that Curry has scored 30 or more in 40% of his 38 games this season. He has scored 27 or more in 53% of the 38 games...