Quaker State 400 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Quaker State 400 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Quaker State 400
Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Georgia

Last Week's Race

The Kwik Trip 250 took place last week at Road America.

This race was all about Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott.

Throughout most of the race, Reddick positioned himself among the leading drivers.

But Elliott was there to challenge him until the latest parts of the race.

In fact, at first, it was looking like Elliott would be the day's better driver.

Elliott could have arguably won the first two stages of the race, but long-term strategy motivated him to pit at times that were antithetical to his chances of winning those early stages.

With both drivers dueling each other, Reddick began gaining the upper hand at Lap 46.

Ultimately, he pulled away for his first NASCAR Cup Series victory in 92 tries.

Reddick's victory positioned him at ninth in the playoff standings.

Elliott, despite failing to win, remains atop the standings after finishing second.

Because it is difficult and rare to win back-to-back races in the NASCAR Cup Series, we can exclude Reddick from our list of candidates to win this race.

Race Info

This week, the Quaker State 400 takes place in the vicinity of Atlanta -- Hampton is about a 45-minute drive from Atlanta.

Unlike the NASCAR Cup Series' most recent races, the Atlanta Motor Speedway is a historically eminently familiar host for NASCAR's active drivers.

For this race, drivers must complete a total of 260 laps.

As has almost always been the case, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 60 laps.

Stage 2 consists in the next 100 laps.

Stage 3 mandates drivers to complete 100 more laps.

Entry List

As usual, an entry list for this week's upcoming race has already been posted.

On this entry list, 36 teams/spots out of a possible 40 have been filled.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will compete at this event.

We may expect all the usual suspects here.

Starting Lineup

For this race, the starting lineup will get determined via qualifying.

Qualifying will be single-vehicle, one-lap, and two-round.

It will take place on Saturday, the day before the race, from 11:35 a.m. to 1 p.m.

No practice session has been scheduled for this race.

None should be needed because of the extent to which this track is already familiar to active NASCAR drivers.

Track Info

Despite being familiar to NASCAR drivers, Atlanta's Motor Speedway will be new in some meaningful respects.

This track has been repaved and somewhat reconfigured.

In accomplishing this reconstruction project, NASCAR officials are seeking to make the best possible combination of a superspeedway and an intermediate track.

Superspeedways are generally thought of as longer tracks because drivers, when cruising on longer straightaways, will. have more time to increase their speed.

Atlanta's quad-oval track is intermediate in length, however.

It is 1.54 miles per lap.

So, completing 260 laps, drivers will have amassed 400.4 miles.

The banking at this track has been increased, which will encourage greater speeds as drivers use banking to corral more momentum for their vehicles.

Now the turns here are banked at 28 degrees while the straights are banked at five degrees.

Drivers I Dislike

Despite achieving more strong performances since the middle of May, Denny Hamlin is not worth investing in for this race.

Historically, he is too hit-or-miss at the track.

The stark inconsistency with which he succeeds here renders him unreliable.

Moreover, Joey Logano appears unreliable on Sunday.

In general, he has been hit-or-miss in most recent starts.

In Atlanta, however, he has failed to break the top 10 in four of his last five tries.

He finished ninth in the one exception.

My Guys

I recommend investing in two drivers, at half a unit each, because drivers with strong recent track records in Atlanta have attractive odds attached to them.

Kurt Busch has finished top-nine in seven of his last eight races in Atlanta while Martin Truex Jr. has nine straight top-nine finishes here.

For the above reasons, bet on both drivers to win.

Best Bet: Kurt Busch Outright at +1800 at Bovada & Martin Truex Jr. Outright at +2000 at Bovada
 
I played these at BAS for 1 unit each:

Keselowski -110 over Stenhouse
Buescher -110 over Stenhouse
Austin Dillon -110 over Erik Jones

Leaning towards betting on longshots like Austin Dillon +3800, Buescher +4500, Keselowski +4000, or McDowell +6000 to win.
 
I bet this for the Xfinity race:

1 unit:
Austin Hill -110 over Reddick (Bovada)

I may add some more once BAS has their lines back up. It looks like rain both today and tomorrow in Atlanta.
 
More Xfinity bets:

1 unit:
Austin Hill -125 over Berry (BAS)
Austin Hill +100 over Mayer (BAS)
Herbst +105 over Creed (BAS)
Ryan Sieg +125 over Ryan Truex (BAS)

0.5 unit:

Herbst +105 over Brandon Jones (BAS)
Herbst +100 over Hemric (BAS)

$10 Austin Hill to win +800 (Bovada)
 
I bet a whole $20 on 2 longshots to winr the Cup race tomorrow.

$10 McDowell to win +6600 (Bovada)
$10 Buescher to win +5000 (Bovada)
 
I wanna bet on Bubba tomorrow but the odds on his matchups suck. I did bet on him versus Reddick who is coming off his first win.

1 unit:

Bubba +115 over Reddick

Also, you can get Chase Elliott at +money or even in most of his matchups. He usually runs well at these track types.
 
More Xfinity bets:

1 unit:
Austin Hill -125 over Berry (BAS)
Austin Hill +100 over Mayer (BAS)
Herbst +105 over Creed (BAS)
Ryan Sieg +125 over Ryan Truex (BAS)

0.5 unit:

Herbst +105 over Brandon Jones (BAS)
Herbst +100 over Hemric (BAS)

$10 Austin Hill to win +800 (Bovada)
+3.87 units
 
I added this for the Cup race tomorrow:

2 units:

Buescher -115 & -120 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)


Here is what I have so far:

3 units:

Buescher -110, -115 & -120 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)

1 unit:
Keselowski -110 over Stenhouse (BAS)
Austin Dillon -110 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Bubba +115 over Reddick (BAS)

$10 McDowell to win +6600 (Bovada)
$10 Buescher to win +5000 (Bovada)
 
I added:

1 unit:

Haley -130 over Burton (BAS)
Bubba +110 over Hamlin (BM)

Here is what I have so far:

3 units:

Buescher -110, -115 & -120 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)

1 unit:
Keselowski -110 over Stenhouse (BAS)
Austin Dillon -110 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Bubba +115 over Reddick (BAS)
Haley -130 over Burton (BAS)
Bubba +110 over Hamlin (BM)

$10 McDowell to win +6600 (Bovada)
$10 Buescher to win +5000 (Bovada)

I don't like Dillon over Jones as much anymore, but I will let ride.

I may bet Haley over Custer and McDowell over Custer if the odds move a little.

They moved the start time of the race to 3:00.
 
I added:

1 unit:

Haley -130 over Burton (BAS)
Bubba +110 over Hamlin (BM)

Here is what I have so far:

3 units:

Buescher -110, -115 & -120 over Stenhouse (BAS & Bovada)

1 unit:
Keselowski -110 over Stenhouse (BAS)
Austin Dillon -110 over Erik Jones (BAS)
Bubba +115 over Reddick (BAS)
Haley -130 over Burton (BAS)
Bubba +110 over Hamlin (BM)

$10 McDowell to win +6600 (Bovada)
$10 Buescher to win +5000 (Bovada)

I don't like Dillon over Jones as much anymore, but I will let ride.

I may bet Haley over Custer and McDowell over Custer if the odds move a little.

They moved the start time of the race to 3:00.
Somehow I only lost 0.5 units today

Atlanta:
Xfinity +3.87 units
Cup -0.5 units

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +10.82 units
Cup +43.98 units
Both +54.8 units
 
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