bjorks
Secretary of Fondy Fanclub
A lot of people wondering about this game. Here's some initial random thoughts about the game...
The Line: ASU -3
Basically a pick'em if not for home field advantage ASU. If Cal had not lost last week against UCLA the game would've been a pick'em. If not for some poor decisions by Cal, the GameDay crew would be here as it would've been #2 versus #7. Cal isn't as bad as they showed last week. Nate Longshore was coming back off an injury and was rusty, but still gave Cal a shot to win at the end. If he is healthy and played the week before, Cal doesn't lose that game. Regardless, Cal has 2 losses and ASU has 0, even if Cal was undefeated it would be hard to image them being a significant road favorite, but they're not, they're getting 3 on the road.
ASU backers typically do not cause a great deal of line movement, or, not as much as Cal. This is going to be a tight game all the way through and I'd like it much better if the line moved closer to a pick'em, but we'll need some heavy hitters I'm afraid on Cal in order for that to happen. I DO NOT see this line moving past 3.5 and would be shocked if it didn't move the other way slightly (or at least Cal +3 say -120).
Sun Devil Stadium
ASU doens't sell games out. There's still about 5000 tickets left for this game, but the crowd will be extra sauced as it's Homecoming for ASU. I'd guess it's going to be a sellout based on ticket movement today as they sold 2000. Cal (fans) has not traveled to the desert well in the past and I'm expecting a little extra from the ASU fans. The fact that ASU moved all their games to the night however is a slight advantage for Cal. Not so much now in October, but teams used to hate coming here and playing int he middle of the afternoon because of the heat. It's been cool here since Saturday and windy. I have no clue what the forcast is going to be, but playing out of the sun helps Cal. Cal has also won the L4 against ASU including 2 in a row at ASU.
Coaching
Well Jeff Tedford has never lost 3 in a row at Cal and ASU is 2-19 SU against ranked teams since 2001. HOWEVER, Dennis Erickson is 26-15 in 19 years of college coaching against ranked teams despite the fact ASU hasn't beat a ranked opponent since 2004 (Iowa 44-7). Much of ASU's trouble against ranked teams was under Dirk Koetter, but Erickson has proven to be able to do what Koetter couldn't - establish a running game, win in the state of California, keeping the team focused on the task at hand, etc.
ASU has been in this position before, undefeated with high expectations. In the past ASU has self-imploded at this spot and usually gone down the shitter. Erickson (so far) has been able to reverse these trends.
I was as sceptical as anyone with ASU's hiring of Erickson initially. But having talked to him numerous times and talked to players, this guy is really a great college football coach. I've come to love the fact Erickson is our coach and so have many people in the desert.
Injuries
The most glaring injury for ASU is losing Ryan Torain. Torain, who was maybe the best kept secret in the nation is a huge blow. Keegan Herring (73 att/480 yds/4 TDs) and Dimitri Nance (37 att/193 yds/2 TDs) and even Preston Jones (23 att/85 yds) will all try to surpass Torains output. The difference is Torain was a homerun threat everytime he touched the ball. Herring is a scatback and while his numbers are good, it may take him 15 carries to break one, as opposed to Torain's ability to do it on any given play.
Nate Longshore (ankle) will have a full week of practice and whatever rust he had against UCLA should be gone. Otherwise WR Robert Jordan (shoulder) is expected to return and DE Rulon Davis (Foot) could as well.
Both teams are seemingly in good shape.
ASU Offense Vs. Cal Defense
Despite ASU's slow starts this year, they've been world killers in the 2H. Tedford has never really placed an emphasis on defense, but the Bears D has played well this year. Cal has given up the following totals this year:
31 to Tennessee (382 total O)
28 to Colorado St (391 total O)
12 to La Tech (274 total O)
27 to Arizona (330 total O)
24 to Oregon (400 total O)
31 to Oregon St (339 total O)
30 to UCLA (299 total O)
ASU's offense is superior to all these teams with the exception of Oregon, but they run a completely different system. ASU has a great mix of pass and run and what's different under Erickson is they have the ability to run and use clock and sustain drives, which is something they haven't been able to do in the past. Cal has given up an average of 26.1 ppg this year, which is fairly high for a team who could be in the Top 10.
Herring and Nance should get 120-140 between the two of them, but I'm thinking Carpenter will look to attack through the air against a Cal secondary that has a similar theory to ASU's in the secondary.
ASU Defense Vs. Cal Offense
Cal hasn't really struggled to put up points over the L5 years against ASU (38.4 ppg), but the ASU defense is at it's best in the past 10 years. HOWEVER the strength of Cal's offense is ASU's weak spot on defense. Craig Brey has a very talented front 7 and is stingy against the run. But, the secondary problems that plagued Brey at Minnesota seem to have followed him to Tempe. ASU's glaring weakness is in the secondary. It's a bend, but not break group that looks for the big plays on defense, but will also give up a big play. Cal's effectiveness will be through the air.
Cal has struggled on offense against Top 10 defenses this season having played 2. Funny, it also happens to be their only 2 losses. Is there that big of a drop from say 10 to 13? I don't think so.
DeSean Jackson will get his touches, but the key for Cal will be at the hands of WR Jordan, WR Lavelle Hawkins, and RB Justin Forsett. ASU can afford to let Jackson get 100, but it can't let any of these other 3 to have big days.
L5 Games
2006 #21 Cal 49, #22 ASU 21
2004 #7 Cal 27, #20 ASU 0
2003 Cal 51, ASU 23
2002 Cal 55, #55 ASU 38
2000 ASU 30, Cal 10
Misc.
If Cal wants to sniff the Rose Bowl this is a must win game...
If Cal wants a PAC 10 title and/or New Years Day bowl, this is must win...
Cals never lost 3 in a row under Tedford...
Cal has destroyed ASU the L4 games and won 4 out of 5...
This is ASU's 1st game against a ranked opponent...
If ASU wants a run at the Roses, PAC 10 title, or National Championship they must win here...
ASU's last 5 games are Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA, USC, and Arizona. This is the first game of a brutal ending stretch and we'll see how good ASU really is.
ASU -3 is the absolute max I'd even consider touching. Anything over that and I'm on Cal. Anything less than 3 and I'll be on ASU. The total will most likely be inflated, but my initial thought is a lean towards the under. Without Torain and think ASU will play a little more conservatively despite throwing a little bit more.
Regardless it's going to be a heckuva game. I'm actually going to this one so it should be fun. As I get information this week I'll continue to post.
:cheers:
The Line: ASU -3
Basically a pick'em if not for home field advantage ASU. If Cal had not lost last week against UCLA the game would've been a pick'em. If not for some poor decisions by Cal, the GameDay crew would be here as it would've been #2 versus #7. Cal isn't as bad as they showed last week. Nate Longshore was coming back off an injury and was rusty, but still gave Cal a shot to win at the end. If he is healthy and played the week before, Cal doesn't lose that game. Regardless, Cal has 2 losses and ASU has 0, even if Cal was undefeated it would be hard to image them being a significant road favorite, but they're not, they're getting 3 on the road.
ASU backers typically do not cause a great deal of line movement, or, not as much as Cal. This is going to be a tight game all the way through and I'd like it much better if the line moved closer to a pick'em, but we'll need some heavy hitters I'm afraid on Cal in order for that to happen. I DO NOT see this line moving past 3.5 and would be shocked if it didn't move the other way slightly (or at least Cal +3 say -120).
Sun Devil Stadium
ASU doens't sell games out. There's still about 5000 tickets left for this game, but the crowd will be extra sauced as it's Homecoming for ASU. I'd guess it's going to be a sellout based on ticket movement today as they sold 2000. Cal (fans) has not traveled to the desert well in the past and I'm expecting a little extra from the ASU fans. The fact that ASU moved all their games to the night however is a slight advantage for Cal. Not so much now in October, but teams used to hate coming here and playing int he middle of the afternoon because of the heat. It's been cool here since Saturday and windy. I have no clue what the forcast is going to be, but playing out of the sun helps Cal. Cal has also won the L4 against ASU including 2 in a row at ASU.
Coaching
Well Jeff Tedford has never lost 3 in a row at Cal and ASU is 2-19 SU against ranked teams since 2001. HOWEVER, Dennis Erickson is 26-15 in 19 years of college coaching against ranked teams despite the fact ASU hasn't beat a ranked opponent since 2004 (Iowa 44-7). Much of ASU's trouble against ranked teams was under Dirk Koetter, but Erickson has proven to be able to do what Koetter couldn't - establish a running game, win in the state of California, keeping the team focused on the task at hand, etc.
ASU has been in this position before, undefeated with high expectations. In the past ASU has self-imploded at this spot and usually gone down the shitter. Erickson (so far) has been able to reverse these trends.
I was as sceptical as anyone with ASU's hiring of Erickson initially. But having talked to him numerous times and talked to players, this guy is really a great college football coach. I've come to love the fact Erickson is our coach and so have many people in the desert.
Injuries
The most glaring injury for ASU is losing Ryan Torain. Torain, who was maybe the best kept secret in the nation is a huge blow. Keegan Herring (73 att/480 yds/4 TDs) and Dimitri Nance (37 att/193 yds/2 TDs) and even Preston Jones (23 att/85 yds) will all try to surpass Torains output. The difference is Torain was a homerun threat everytime he touched the ball. Herring is a scatback and while his numbers are good, it may take him 15 carries to break one, as opposed to Torain's ability to do it on any given play.
Nate Longshore (ankle) will have a full week of practice and whatever rust he had against UCLA should be gone. Otherwise WR Robert Jordan (shoulder) is expected to return and DE Rulon Davis (Foot) could as well.
Both teams are seemingly in good shape.
ASU Offense Vs. Cal Defense
Despite ASU's slow starts this year, they've been world killers in the 2H. Tedford has never really placed an emphasis on defense, but the Bears D has played well this year. Cal has given up the following totals this year:
31 to Tennessee (382 total O)
28 to Colorado St (391 total O)
12 to La Tech (274 total O)
27 to Arizona (330 total O)
24 to Oregon (400 total O)
31 to Oregon St (339 total O)
30 to UCLA (299 total O)
ASU's offense is superior to all these teams with the exception of Oregon, but they run a completely different system. ASU has a great mix of pass and run and what's different under Erickson is they have the ability to run and use clock and sustain drives, which is something they haven't been able to do in the past. Cal has given up an average of 26.1 ppg this year, which is fairly high for a team who could be in the Top 10.
Herring and Nance should get 120-140 between the two of them, but I'm thinking Carpenter will look to attack through the air against a Cal secondary that has a similar theory to ASU's in the secondary.
ASU Defense Vs. Cal Offense
Cal hasn't really struggled to put up points over the L5 years against ASU (38.4 ppg), but the ASU defense is at it's best in the past 10 years. HOWEVER the strength of Cal's offense is ASU's weak spot on defense. Craig Brey has a very talented front 7 and is stingy against the run. But, the secondary problems that plagued Brey at Minnesota seem to have followed him to Tempe. ASU's glaring weakness is in the secondary. It's a bend, but not break group that looks for the big plays on defense, but will also give up a big play. Cal's effectiveness will be through the air.
Cal has struggled on offense against Top 10 defenses this season having played 2. Funny, it also happens to be their only 2 losses. Is there that big of a drop from say 10 to 13? I don't think so.
DeSean Jackson will get his touches, but the key for Cal will be at the hands of WR Jordan, WR Lavelle Hawkins, and RB Justin Forsett. ASU can afford to let Jackson get 100, but it can't let any of these other 3 to have big days.
L5 Games
2006 #21 Cal 49, #22 ASU 21
2004 #7 Cal 27, #20 ASU 0
2003 Cal 51, ASU 23
2002 Cal 55, #55 ASU 38
2000 ASU 30, Cal 10
Misc.
If Cal wants to sniff the Rose Bowl this is a must win game...
If Cal wants a PAC 10 title and/or New Years Day bowl, this is must win...
Cals never lost 3 in a row under Tedford...
Cal has destroyed ASU the L4 games and won 4 out of 5...
This is ASU's 1st game against a ranked opponent...
If ASU wants a run at the Roses, PAC 10 title, or National Championship they must win here...
ASU's last 5 games are Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA, USC, and Arizona. This is the first game of a brutal ending stretch and we'll see how good ASU really is.
ASU -3 is the absolute max I'd even consider touching. Anything over that and I'm on Cal. Anything less than 3 and I'll be on ASU. The total will most likely be inflated, but my initial thought is a lean towards the under. Without Torain and think ASU will play a little more conservatively despite throwing a little bit more.
Regardless it's going to be a heckuva game. I'm actually going to this one so it should be fun. As I get information this week I'll continue to post.
:cheers:
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