Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I don't do a good job of posting this weekly. Someone kick me in the ass.
Always an interesting read.
Entering Week 14, NFL underdogs had posted a winning record against the spread in eight of the past nine weeks. Overall, underdogs had covered the spread in 56.9% of games this season, a mark that would be the best in any season since 1980, according to ESPN Stats and Information research.
Unfortunately for the betting public, they've never been overly fond of the underdogs -- certainly not this season, and it has resulted in what one veteran Las Vegas bookmaker called his "best NFL season."
Week after week, the sportsbooks have come out ahead, winning Sunday after Sunday and most days in between. November might have been the best month BetMGM's sportsbooks in Nevada have ever experienced, according to director of race and sports Jeff Stoneback.
"Most of that was attributed to the NFL," Stoneback said. "It's gotten really sour for the bettors since the first of November."
This Sunday was a little sweeter for bettors compared to some other recent weeks. Favorites went 8-6 against the spread, resulting in some sportsbooks suffering a rare losing day.
Stoneback said the Bills' win over the Steelers in the prime-time game sealed the first losing Sunday his book had suffered in over a month. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas also reported a losing day.
"We are going to be a small loser for the day, but I won't get my beggar's cup out," John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, told ESPN. "We have won every Sunday for weeks. Only one of those Sundays was a huge winner, but it seems like we have been consistently winning a respectable number each week in the NFL."
Here is this week's edition of Notable Bets, our weekly look at the betting story lines from around the sports world.
The Eagles' win was big for the sportsbook at The Borgata in Atlantic City, N.J. Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said the Eagles eliminated "huge" liability on teasers. "We already took a hit on the two-team teasers in the early slate with Tampa and Kansas City, but New Orleans is included in a lot of three-team teasers," Gable told ESPN. "The Eagles game will make or break the day for us."
• Sportsbook operator PointsBet described Sunday as average, "not the best, not the worst, with multiple games displaying strong two-way action to further even out the overall result." PointsBet's biggest wins came in the Bears' 36-7 rout of the Texans, the Dolphins covering the spread in a 33-27 loss to the Chiefs, and the Chargers' 20-17 win over the Falcons.
The Titans' 31-10 win over the Jaguars, the Buccaneers' 26-14 win over the Vikings and the Cowboys' 30-7 win over the Bengals were the most costly for PointsBet.
• "We've had some really good weeks this season," Johnny Avello, sportsbook director for DraftKings, said. "This week, here, is the normal kind of week. We're not doing as great. I think we're even or so."
• The Bucs covering against the Vikings and the Cardinals covering in a 26-7 win over the Giants produced the two biggest losses of the early games for BetMGM books. The Titans also came through for bettors at BetMGM, particularly one customer who included Tennessee on a pair of $100,000 two-team parlays that hit.
• The SuperBook reported taking a $3,000 money-line bet on the Jets to beat the Seahawks at +750. The Seahawks blew out the winless Jets 40-3.
• Two hours prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game, the action at BetMGM was very even in terms of number of wagers, with the Steelers having attracted just 13 more point-spread bets than the Bills. The money was another story. "It's one of those where I'm going to need to get out the calculator," Stoneback said. "The money is like 14-1 [on Buffalo]. All the larger bets have been on the Bills."
Stoneback mentioned a $200,000 bet on the Bills, along with some five-figure action on Buffalo, as the cause of the lopsided money.
The Bills won 26-15.·Stoneback said he had no complaints, though, and noted that his book's NFL hold percentage -- the amount the house keeps from the amount wagered -- was up significantly this season.
• The SuperBook said that while its hold percentage on the NFL was slightly down compared to last season, the betting handle was up year over year. That's despite the Las Vegas sportsbook operating at limited capacity throughout the season due to the pandemic.
"Our handle is actually up almost 10% from 2019 in the NFL which is surprising," Murray said. "The hold percentage is a little lower than last year, which makes sense. Generally speaking, we hold much better over the counter than we do on mobile accounts, and our percentage of handle on the mobile accounts is higher than ever before."
• Alabama covered the spread for a seventh straight time with a 52-3 drubbing of Arkansas. That is the longest such streak for Nick Saban in his coaching career, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
• LSU upset Florida as a 23-point underdog on Saturday. Heading into the fourth quarter with Florida leading, a bettor placed a $10,000 money-line bet with William Hill on the Tigers at 4-1 odds and earned a $40,000 payday when LSU pulled out a 37-34 victory.
Always an interesting read.
Entering Week 14, NFL underdogs had posted a winning record against the spread in eight of the past nine weeks. Overall, underdogs had covered the spread in 56.9% of games this season, a mark that would be the best in any season since 1980, according to ESPN Stats and Information research.
Unfortunately for the betting public, they've never been overly fond of the underdogs -- certainly not this season, and it has resulted in what one veteran Las Vegas bookmaker called his "best NFL season."
Week after week, the sportsbooks have come out ahead, winning Sunday after Sunday and most days in between. November might have been the best month BetMGM's sportsbooks in Nevada have ever experienced, according to director of race and sports Jeff Stoneback.
"Most of that was attributed to the NFL," Stoneback said. "It's gotten really sour for the bettors since the first of November."
This Sunday was a little sweeter for bettors compared to some other recent weeks. Favorites went 8-6 against the spread, resulting in some sportsbooks suffering a rare losing day.
Stoneback said the Bills' win over the Steelers in the prime-time game sealed the first losing Sunday his book had suffered in over a month. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas also reported a losing day.
"We are going to be a small loser for the day, but I won't get my beggar's cup out," John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, told ESPN. "We have won every Sunday for weeks. Only one of those Sundays was a huge winner, but it seems like we have been consistently winning a respectable number each week in the NFL."
Here is this week's edition of Notable Bets, our weekly look at the betting story lines from around the sports world.
NFL
• While BetMGM Nevada and the SuperBook suffered losses, other bookmakers reported a winning Sunday. William Hill U.S. director of trading Nick Bogdanovich called Sunday "decent," while FanDuel sportsbook director John Sheeran described Sunday as "solid" and pointed to the Lions covering the spread in a 31-24 loss to the Packers, and the underdog Eagles' 24-21 upset of the Saints as two big results for the house.The Eagles' win was big for the sportsbook at The Borgata in Atlantic City, N.J. Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said the Eagles eliminated "huge" liability on teasers. "We already took a hit on the two-team teasers in the early slate with Tampa and Kansas City, but New Orleans is included in a lot of three-team teasers," Gable told ESPN. "The Eagles game will make or break the day for us."
• Sportsbook operator PointsBet described Sunday as average, "not the best, not the worst, with multiple games displaying strong two-way action to further even out the overall result." PointsBet's biggest wins came in the Bears' 36-7 rout of the Texans, the Dolphins covering the spread in a 33-27 loss to the Chiefs, and the Chargers' 20-17 win over the Falcons.
The Titans' 31-10 win over the Jaguars, the Buccaneers' 26-14 win over the Vikings and the Cowboys' 30-7 win over the Bengals were the most costly for PointsBet.
• "We've had some really good weeks this season," Johnny Avello, sportsbook director for DraftKings, said. "This week, here, is the normal kind of week. We're not doing as great. I think we're even or so."
• The Bucs covering against the Vikings and the Cardinals covering in a 26-7 win over the Giants produced the two biggest losses of the early games for BetMGM books. The Titans also came through for bettors at BetMGM, particularly one customer who included Tennessee on a pair of $100,000 two-team parlays that hit.
• The SuperBook reported taking a $3,000 money-line bet on the Jets to beat the Seahawks at +750. The Seahawks blew out the winless Jets 40-3.
• Two hours prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game, the action at BetMGM was very even in terms of number of wagers, with the Steelers having attracted just 13 more point-spread bets than the Bills. The money was another story. "It's one of those where I'm going to need to get out the calculator," Stoneback said. "The money is like 14-1 [on Buffalo]. All the larger bets have been on the Bills."
Stoneback mentioned a $200,000 bet on the Bills, along with some five-figure action on Buffalo, as the cause of the lopsided money.
The Bills won 26-15.·Stoneback said he had no complaints, though, and noted that his book's NFL hold percentage -- the amount the house keeps from the amount wagered -- was up significantly this season.
• The SuperBook said that while its hold percentage on the NFL was slightly down compared to last season, the betting handle was up year over year. That's despite the Las Vegas sportsbook operating at limited capacity throughout the season due to the pandemic.
"Our handle is actually up almost 10% from 2019 in the NFL which is surprising," Murray said. "The hold percentage is a little lower than last year, which makes sense. Generally speaking, we hold much better over the counter than we do on mobile accounts, and our percentage of handle on the mobile accounts is higher than ever before."
College football
• Army defeated Navy 15-0 on Saturday. It was the 15th straight meeting between Army and Navy that stayed under the total. The total closed at 36 at most sportsbooks. At PointsBet, 75% of the money bet on the total was on the under.• Alabama covered the spread for a seventh straight time with a 52-3 drubbing of Arkansas. That is the longest such streak for Nick Saban in his coaching career, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
• LSU upset Florida as a 23-point underdog on Saturday. Heading into the fourth quarter with Florida leading, a bettor placed a $10,000 money-line bet with William Hill on the Tigers at 4-1 odds and earned a $40,000 payday when LSU pulled out a 37-34 victory.
