Purdum's Nuggets

Frank Costanza

Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra

Love his work.


National title notables [via Caesars Sportsbook]​

Most bets
Most money
  • Oklahoma
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • Ohio State
  • Texas A&M

National title notes:
  • UCLA is the biggest liability for the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas.
  • Oklahoma is the biggest liability for BetMGM.
  • Tennessee is the biggest liability for Circa Sports.
  • Alabama and Oklahoma account for more than 50% of the money that's been wagered on sportsbook PointBet's odds to win the national title.
Conference title notes:
  • As of Tuesday at PointsBet, there had been no bets on Penn State (+800) to win the Big Ten title.
  • More bets and more money are on Georgia (+225) to win the SEC title than any other team. [PointsBet]

By the Numbers​

  • 8.77: The percentage of regular-season games over the past 10 years that have ended with a margin of victory of three, the most common margin of victory, followed by seven (7.87%), 14 (4.38%) and 10 (4.14%).
  • 56.9: Average points per game over past five regular seasons.
  • 56.5: Average closing over/under total over past five seasons.
  • 51.8: The percentage of games over the past five seasons in which the underdogs have covered the spread. Underdogs have covered the spread in more games than favorites in four of the past five seasons.
    - 51.6: The percentage of games over the last five seasons that have stayed under the total.
    - 31.1: Alabama's margin of victory at home over the last 10 seasons, the largest of any team.
    - 12.8: The average spread differential-the difference between the margin of victor and the closing spread-in last season's games, the highest since 2003. Over the last 10 seasons, the average spread differential in college football games has been 12.4.
    - Minus 12.8: Kansas' margin of victory at home over the last 10 seasons, the worst of any team.

Coaches against the spread and over/under records​

Top 5 ATS career [minimum 20 games]:
  • Ohio State's Ryan Day: 70.0% (14-6-0 ATS)
  • Kansas State's Chris Klieman 68.2% (15-7-0 ATS)
  • Louisiana's Billy Napier 64.7% (22-12-0 ATS)
  • Georgia Southern's Chad Lunsford 61.9% (26-16-0 ATS)
  • Iowa State's Matt Campbell: 60.8% (62-40-3 ATS)
Bottom 5 ATS career:
  • Washington State's Nick Rolovich 34.0% (17-33-4 ATS)
  • Troy's Chip Lindsey 39.1% (9-14-0 ATS)
  • UTEP's Dana Dimel 39.4% (39-60-0 ATS)
  • Western Michigan Tim Lester 40.5% (17-25 ATS)
  • New Mexico State's Doug Martin 41.4% (65-92-3 ATS)
Top 5 ATS in conference games [minimum 10 games]:
  • Ohio State's Ryan Day 75.0% (11-4-0 ATS)
  • Arkansas' Sam Pittman 73.3% (7-3-0 ATS)
  • San Jose State's Brent Brennan 66.7% (18-9-3 ATS)
  • Kansas State's Chris Klieman: 66.7% (12-6-0 ATS)
  • Kent State's Sean Lewis 65.0% (13-7-0 ATS)

Bottom 5 ATS in conference games:

  • Akron's Tom Arth's 21.4% (3-11-0 ATS)
  • Bowling Green's Scot Loeffler 23.1% (3-10-0 ATS)
  • Washington State's Nick Rolovich 32.4% (11-23-2 ATS)
  • UTEP's Dana Dimel: 36.9% (24-41-0 ATS)
  • Michigan State's Mel Tucker 37.5% (6-10 ATS)
Top 5 ATS after a loss [excludes season opener and coach's first game with team]:

  • Louisiana's Billy Napier 70.0% (7-3-0 ATS)
  • West Virginia's Neal Brown 66.7% (18-9-0 ATS)
  • Louisville's Scott Satterfield 66.7% (18-9-1)
  • Kent State's Sean Lewis 66.7% (10-5-0 ATS)
  • Tulane Willie Fritz 65.8% (25-13-0 ATS)
Bottom 5 ATS after a loss [minimum 10 losses]:

  • Akron's Tom Arth 20.0% (3-12-0 ATS)
  • Washington State's Nick Rolovich 20.8% (5-19-2 ATS)
  • Bowling Green's Scot Loeffler 25.0% (3-9-0 ATS)
  • UMass' Walt Bell 30.8% (4-9-0 ATS)
  • Penn State's James Franklin 34.2% (13-25-1 ATS)

Best 'over' coaches [minimum 20 games, including bowls]:
  • Florida State's Mike Norvell: 62.9% (39-23-0)
  • Oregon State's Jonathan Smith: 61.3% (19-12-0)
  • UCLA's Chip Kelly: 60.2% (50-33-0)
  • Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley: 57.7% (30-22-1)
  • Michigan's Jim Harbaugh: 57.5% (69-51-0)
Best 'under' coaches [minimum 20 games, including bowls]:
  • Cal's Justin Wilcox: 66.7% (28-14-0)
  • Louisiana-Monroe's Terry Bowden: 65.1% (30-56-0)
  • BYU's Kalani Sitake: 62.5% (24-40-0)
  • Kansas State's Chris Klieman: 60.9% (25-37-0)
  • Cincinnati's Luke Fickell: 59.7% (25-37-0)


 
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