Probably the best opportunity for the Public to make some money this year..

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Billivy

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08-09 Record 4-3-1 (-$70)

Cleveland -14.5 (550 to win 500)

This is about the worst possible spot for the Knicks. Any team with a decent center in the league poses huge problems for NY right now obviously. But this is just sad. The B2B against a well rested Cavs team that doesn't have to play tommorow and no travel for Indiana the following day? This is gonna get ugly. I was at the garden when Cleveland destroyed these children! The Knicks are getting worse it seems at guarding the perimeter and I remember vividly how easy it was for West to find open looks. O yah, and then there's LEBRON JAMES....superman...he does whatever he wants to against this team...For the Knicks to compete, they'll have to be around 50% from behind the arc and near perfect at the line...They're shorthanded and suffered a hard fought tough loss to a very skilled Portland last night. The two best players on the Knicks (Duhon and Lee) played a sum of over 80 minutes last night. Not looking good for NY....FADE FADE FADE NY on B2Bs on the road. They cant make the line high enough...I have it personally set around 25...BOL'an_horse'
 
bol billivy i hope you're right. i just can't see how the cavs can be excited at all to play this team when they just beat the shit out of them not too long ago. never thought i'd see the day where the cavs were this big of favs...
 
OSO...nah, I like Cleveland for pulling away in the third quarter...(not that they cant jumpout early like they did in NY)..but when i think about the B2B... and how NY ran outa steam in the fourth last night...I feel more comfortable laying those points on the game rather than the 1st half
 
slayer202 said:
means this will be the most dissapointing pick of the year
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so you think the Knicks with their 7 man rotation on the 2nd of a b2b will compete against a contending team that takes games against them personally + an angry crowd that will surely take no satisfaction in their team winning by a measily 11.

Of course this isn't unbreakable logic, nor does this pick have to win, and trust me, I'm not a fan of laying 15, but this game has a 25-30 win written all over it.
 
Probably the best opportunity for the Public to make some money this year.

What does this mean?

It means he knows Joe Public doesn't know jack s**t about betting the NBA so he's posting a pick for me. Sometimes, you people. But that's the holiday spirit right there. Thank you, Bill.
 
Satyr said:
so you think the Knicks with their 7 man rotation on the 2nd of a b2b will compete against a contending team that takes games against them personally + an angry crowd that will surely take no satisfaction in their team winning by a measily 11.

Of course this isn't unbreakable logic, nor does this pick have to win, and trust me, I'm not a fan of laying 15, but this game has a 25-30 win written all over it.
Click to expand...

what teams take these games personally? I can see the crowd being pissed lebron is going bye-bye, but when they aren't in the garden, I don't see why lebron would give a shit.

I don't think the knicks compete, but I think the cavs are overrated and wouldn't lay 15 with them. They obviously can cover it, but I don't look at it as a smart bet, especially not "public will have a chance to make money" kinda thing. lol, and I was mainly referring to the comment, regardless of what the play was. I don't see much of a difference from saying "lock" and "Probably the best opportunity for the Public to make some money this year.. "
 
what i meant justin, is that the public lays these spreads a lot...this is a game I can see the public winning big
 
slayer...it was basically a tongue and cheek comment...I'm not a toute, I don't try to earn money...nor are "views" currency that I can spend...I don't appreciate the implication that it was meant as an attention grabbing title...it was a freaking joke...lighten up...that being said...you saying Cleveland is overrated shows your ignorance...therefore you don't exist, soo POOF vamoose son of a B#$@#

I bet 100-500 on a single NBA game...I have $500 of my hard earned money on it...I posted this b/c I'm posting my plays again...I'm excited about the game...that's it...you don't think the spot is worth a tongue and cheek thread title? yah that was risky!!! But, seeing as how I have as much on this play as any other I'll bet all season...maybe you can cut me a little slack eh bro?
 
Good Luck Billy .

I would say the fear of CLE being a huge "public" bet probably shouldnt be much of a concern for anyone. It really wouldnt apply in every sense of the way ( fits the criteria of looking easy after CLE smoked them last week but not much else IMHO) . Perfect examples of "Public" bets IMO where LaLakers and NJ Nets yesterday . Incredibly one side action with no regard for where the line should be set which tends to be inflated at the open and still taken higher by close . Those are usually the "obvious" looking games which take the ordinary or public bettor to the cleaners . In some cases the widely recoginizes "public" franchises like NY Yankees , Dallas Cowboys , LA LAkers , Boston Celtics can fall into this category of "public" action because of who they are (built in inflation) but not sure CLE can fit that upper tier high society bill yet .

Anyway just a comment . I know you meant it is a lighthearted comment but who knows what every person thinks or feels when they read it . Thats why I thought a good spot to throw up an explanation(well my opinion) on the whole "public" plays theory . Alot of games get lumped into this class and its really taken overboard . The flaw is thinking its solely about betting %s and thats how people overthink situations and games(like when the dog is heavily bet and yet the fav goes higher and its called sharp action which isnt true most of the time IMO , again see the Spurs last night as a great example) These public games LOSE because the lines are bad and still they recieve tons of 1 sided action ....



:shake::cheers:Good Luck ...(think I may take our Knicks though )
 
Well how should the average member on the board have any idea it was a joke? I don't think the cavs have proven themselves. look at the teams they have played so far.

Their best win, and as far as I'm concerned, the only game they shouldn't have won, was against Denver at home. They have lost to boston, new orleans, and detroit. Some of the "better" teams they have beaten: dallas early in the season, chicago, indiana, and a thin jazz team.

on the other hand, the lakers have beat denver twice, the rockets, dallas as well twice, the hornets, portland and a few other teams that might be better than the teams the cavs have beaten.

celtics beat rockets, pistons twice, and orlando, and a bunch of the teams the cavs beat, and they beat the cavs. lost to denver and the pacers. oh, and they are the defending champs

I don't think the cavs have ANY business being mentioned with those two teams...
 
slayer202 said:
Well how should the average member on the board have any idea it was a joke? I don't think the cavs have proven themselves. look at the teams they have played so far.

Their best win, and as far as I'm concerned, the only game they shouldn't have won, was against Denver at home. They have lost to boston, new orleans, and detroit. Some of the "better" teams they have beaten: dallas early in the season, chicago, indiana, and a thin jazz team.

on the other hand, the lakers have beat denver twice, the rockets, dallas as well twice, the hornets, portland and a few other teams that might be better than the teams the cavs have beaten.

celtics beat rockets, pistons twice, and orlando, and a bunch of the teams the cavs beat, and they beat the cavs. lost to denver and the pacers. oh, and they are the defending champs

I don't think the cavs have ANY business being mentioned with those two teams...
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Well Good Luck today Slayer .

I basically agree with you and will be on the Knicks . Tough to pass up +15 but the situation does kinda suck with Q battling a bum elbow and Nate out and Mobley in limbo still . I just love the heart of the Knicks . They had the trades to deal with for the Cle and Det games last week and while both 1st H's were ugly they played a full 48 minutes and actually nearly covered @ Det ...they had a terrible stretch from the end of the 1st Q to near the end of the 2nd Q last time vs CLE they need to avoid that spectular disaster again IMO

:cheers:
 
it's not about this season..it's about the teams...Cleveland has been in the past and is a title contender...end of story
 
Billy, I have just started to read your recent posts, but IMO, your reasoning has been pretty solid. GL tonite.
 
Billivy said:
what i meant justin, is that the public lays these spreads a lot
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No they don't.

I haven't checked Wagerline or Insights, but public action has to be about split here. Might even be slightly to the Knicks.
 
Billivy said:
lol thanks buk....wheres that quote from?
Click to expand...

I read it somewhere a few months ago and it kinda stuck. It pretty much sums up everything we do in life. I guess capping the NBA would be an excellent example. We can try to guess every night or we can put some real time in and find some stiutational opportunities and exploit them. (Which it seems that you are BAR are very good at.) As far as im concerned there are some pretty sharp guys on this site. ANYWAY!!! good luck tonite .
 
the Knicks have heart but they don't have anything else.

They are in complete shambles right now and if Cleveland care they will win by 30. Knicks ' "HEART" lasts for a couple of transitions and a few good D's on Cavs' possesion. Other than that they can be very sloppy at times on both ends of the court.

Having seen a couple of NYK games in the last week I've seen depth of 7 men (starting five + 2 (that's TWO bench players most times), D'Antoni does not change much on timeouts, gets them to change their mindset in the offense but it lasts a couple of possessions only, off timeouts NYK spreads the rock around the arc trying to find open guys, but other than that their shot selection is PISS POOR.

These guys are spent. When you have 5 guys on the court CONSTANTLY and only 2 subs you are going to be spent. It's already taking its toll.

Shitty thing for NYK is, D'Antoni still can't coach defense, so there's no stopping the bleeding once they're down.

Again, if Cleveland cares to win this one big, they will. The only way I see NYK covering is 4th Q with CLE scrubs on court.
 
Again, off timeouts, they're passing it like crazy on the perimeter to get an open shot, but an offensive foul ends their possession.

Now look this new 'strategy' last for the next 4 possessions then it's get back to sloppy shitty penetrations and quick shots just for the sake of it.

They can beat GSW with that attitude, but they will get killed against a team with bodies in the inside like Cleveland, not to mention they have no one to guard LeBron or depth to match Cavs' backcourt.
 
The Knicks are so static in the offense it's insane. Look at them standing around, no movement at all, they should be working through this D, trying to catch this D off guard, but they're standing around and passing the ball until one of them shoots it.

SN sorry man but this team is dead right now, and it's no wonder considering their situation.


57-29 Cavs. Varejao got a rebound off his own FT miss.


NYK: last 4 minutes, 0 points.
 
LeBron got a T as well for doing nothing. The ref thought Bron hit him on the hand but in fact he didn't.
 
lol...this isn't an in game thread bro...

anyways, this might sound stupid...but i'm gonna complain about that half....I watched the whole thing and might be the only person that realizes how many opportunities the Cavs missed. Sloppy turnovers, and a TON of wide open looks missed...a TON...Knicks are playing zero defense on the perimeter and the Cavs aren't really capitalizing...I just hope all those missed shots wont come back to bite me come garbage time...but it shouldn't...Cavs can keep their starters on the floor...they dont play tommorow and are home the next game (big part of this play for me obviously)...and with Q out, the Knicks are THAT much thinner out there...we might see J.J see some minutes toinght...Chandler and Harrington are both in foul trouble...lol
 
sorry for hijacking the thread hope you don't mind. :shake: I'll keep following the game in the in game thread
 
lol @ ingame thread...

I only played first half on this game, expected them to be up by about 10 more points though. I won't even touch this second half as if i would play it, it would be cavs -26.5 for game

GL
 
lol OSO...

Knicks just hit their 4th consecutive three pointer to cut the lead to 26...

I hate games like this but I have to keep watching
 
game is a complete joke...I say the Knicks do get the backdoor cover if they can keep cleveland to 0 points in the 4th
:36_11_6:

Wish I had balls like you to pull the trigger on a bigger bet.
 
we are not safe yet.

Cavs were up by 34 but this is not over. We need a solid 4th Q from Cleveland to cash in, we can't afford Knicks to win 4th big.
 
I would say good call but how can you leave it that ? A 15 pt fav wins by 40 give a point or two. You cant pick a better spot and you were 100% correct .

Duhon back issues , Q elbow issues (which is the starting backcourt), Nate and Mobley out & M.I.A and your 7th and 8th guys in the rotation are Roberson and Malik Rose .

One of the few times I actually feel stupid for making a play !

:cheers:
 
lol, yah...this one feels good...

biggest bet of season is an easy cash...hopefully it'll stay that way for a looongg time...

gnite guys
 
lol nut,

this was just a horrible spot for NY...a lot of people were caught up in how much the core 5 has improved offensively...but the Cavs are a HORRIBLE matchup for the Knicks right now...They have no help off the bench, which is a necessity in B2Bs...and they cant rebound with these guys...

I'm goin to watch Top Chef and go to bed happy
 
Billivy said:
lol nut,

this was just a horrible spot for NY...a lot of people were caught up in how much the core 5 has improved offensively...but the Cavs are a HORRIBLE matchup for the Knicks right now...They have no help off the bench, which is a necessity in B2Bs...and they cant rebound with these guys...

I'm goin to watch Top Chef and go to bed happy
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Enjoy bro.

Absolutely agree . At least Nate and Jefferies might be available on Friday .

I didnt get to watch thankfully but Z probably played on his tippy toes all nite . Bigs with perimeter shooters are going to kill NY and throw in that Lebron guy .....

It was just like you said . Funny I said the same thing about NY after the trade and I still somehow was blindd by the 2nd H effort @ DET last week...

:cheers:
 
Billivy said:
they dont play tommorow and are home the next game (big part of this play for me obviously
Click to expand...

Nice hit ivy, but question, feel free anyone to also chime in, but I understand the 1st part "don't play 2m"- so they wouldnt need to rest much 2nd H, but how are you seeing "are home the next game" as a reason not to rest 2nd H? Thanks, just read it and was confused. again, nice hit today
 
Don't like to lay DD in the NBA so skipped the play, but congrats Billivy, especially with being dead on with your reasoning.
 
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