BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
This will be the 3rd straight year of my posting this thread, the purpose of which is to become aware of when statistical corrections are expected to be forthcoming (as indicated by past patterns) for an array of betting categories related to NFL primetime games (specifically/usually Sunday & Monday Night games).
Specifically, in keeping records of primetime results (since the start of the 2000 season) it soon became clear to me that certain major betting options rarely delivered unfettered runs of one specific result. In other words, as in life, so in betting streaks change is the name of the game. In this thread, I'll list...
- the nature of the streak at, what I call, its saturation point of a run of the same results
- the longest streaks seen of the same result from the previous 7 seasons (dating back to 2000) in order that the present streak's number can be considered in context
...with an eye to the fact that the streak so highlighted is at the (saturation) point of expected change.
I'll first list/note a streak usually when it's within 1 more result of matching the previously highest recorded mark (whatever that may be, from over the last 7 seasons). The exception will be if that highest mark is an especially large number, where the next highest mark (and the general mean for whatever result is being considered) is far less than the highest mark, but where the current streak being considered exceeds all but the highest streak (yeah, its fun to write to, lol).
I have 5 categories of results I record for primetime games (results ordered time sequentially) -
All games
SNF games
MNF games
AFC games (where the home team is an AFC team)
NFC games (where the home team is an NFC team)
Finally, there's 2 different kind of results that are considered: (1) the number of whatever continuous results that have occurred, and (2) the number of whatever games have been played where a typical result has failed to occur. A matter of considering too many of the same result, and a complete lack of an otherwise normally regularly occurring result, where each are seen historically to be situations calling for a statistical correction.
As with all my stat threads, everything is based on opening lines. This is the link to last season's thread.
Specifically, in keeping records of primetime results (since the start of the 2000 season) it soon became clear to me that certain major betting options rarely delivered unfettered runs of one specific result. In other words, as in life, so in betting streaks change is the name of the game. In this thread, I'll list...
- the nature of the streak at, what I call, its saturation point of a run of the same results
- the longest streaks seen of the same result from the previous 7 seasons (dating back to 2000) in order that the present streak's number can be considered in context
...with an eye to the fact that the streak so highlighted is at the (saturation) point of expected change.
I'll first list/note a streak usually when it's within 1 more result of matching the previously highest recorded mark (whatever that may be, from over the last 7 seasons). The exception will be if that highest mark is an especially large number, where the next highest mark (and the general mean for whatever result is being considered) is far less than the highest mark, but where the current streak being considered exceeds all but the highest streak (yeah, its fun to write to, lol).
I have 5 categories of results I record for primetime games (results ordered time sequentially) -
All games
SNF games
MNF games
AFC games (where the home team is an AFC team)
NFC games (where the home team is an NFC team)
Finally, there's 2 different kind of results that are considered: (1) the number of whatever continuous results that have occurred, and (2) the number of whatever games have been played where a typical result has failed to occur. A matter of considering too many of the same result, and a complete lack of an otherwise normally regularly occurring result, where each are seen historically to be situations calling for a statistical correction.
As with all my stat threads, everything is based on opening lines. This is the link to last season's thread.
Last edited: