Well here we go. Been taking 1-2 hours a night to go through Steele and I'm coming across some leans but locked in play #1 tonight
Ohio St +100 to win Big 10 2.00 - 2.00
Coaches typically improve in year 2 though its going to be hard to improve on an undefeated season. Braxton has plenty of experience and a quiet offseason. Defense going to be questionable again but they might score 50 per game. The leaders division features the best team in the conference and then arguably the 4th best team in the conference which gives tOSU a great shot to make it to the Champ game. They get Wisky at home coming off of FAMU so essentially two weeks to prepare. They also get Penn St at home. If they win both of those they're going to the B10 championship game regardless of a slip up against either NW or Michigan. I feel very strongly that the Buckeyes will be playing in the B10 Champ game and I'll go ahead and take them as EV in that game regardless of opponent.
GT to Win Coastal +355 0.50-1.78
I do like this team more than most. I think 355 is a decent number but not great which is why I only put half a unit on it. Four contenders in coastal being VT, Miami, UNC and GT. Regarding schedules: VT has to travel to GT on a Thursday coming off a game against a pretty good Marshall squad. They aren't going to have much time to prepare for the option which will be improved since they last saw it in their 2012 opener. VT follows GT by getting UNC at home and later in the season they have to go to Miami. They also play UVA on the road but have a week off prior. VT's biggest advantage is no Clemson or FSU so GT has to beat them to win the tiebreaker. I think GT beats them on a short week. Miami does draw GT at home and travels to UNC on a Thursday night. I have to have them split these games, lose at FSU which they likely will and hopefully drop 1 more along the way which is possible though I respect the Morris-Golden combo this year. Losing to VT at home or having their annual WTF game should put them at 3 conference losses. UNC travels to GT, to VT and to NCSU. The rest of their ACC schedule is a joke as they avoid Clemson/FSU. GT has to win this one at home for this wager to have a chance. The short of it is GT needs home wins against UNC and VT. They plays UNC, VT, Miami 3 consecutive weeks so they will likely lose to Miami. They will likely lose at Clemson on Thursday night. By holding the tiebreaker over UNC and VT I will need Miami to drop a 3rd conference game. I see it unfolding that way but we'll see. The value just wasn't there to back Miami or I would have
Alabama O11 wins +140 2.00-2.80
I have this available and the other numbers I've seen aren't even close to this value. 5Dimes currently has this at +105 which I think would still warrant some money from me if I didn't have the +140. 2008 Bama had 12 regular season wins, 2009 they had 12, 2010 they had 9, 2011 they had 11, and 2012 they had 11. They get TAMU coming off a bye and LSU at home off a bye. The only potential slip up is at Miss St IMO but they should be relatively well rested even after FSU and have Chatta the next week. They will be favored by at least 10 points in every game. Unreal that they avoid SoCar, UGA and Florida but it should be profitable although it robs us of quality matchups. Crazy but Bama may only face 4 ranked teams this regular season by the time it's all said and done
Iowa St U6 wins -175 3.50-2.00
Best price I could find by far. They essentially have the same schedule this year. The only replacement is Western Illinois for Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa will have a legitimate chance of beating them and they damn near did in 2011. ISU beat Tulsa at home last year. This year they play at Tulsa on a Thursday night. Last year they beat Iowa. They may very well beat Iowa again as it is at home this year. Last year they beat TCU and Baylor. Even with wins against TCU, Baylor, Iowa and Western Illinois they still only won 6 regular season games which would be a push. I just can't see them any better than 6-6 and I really think they're a 4-8 team. I think they get wins over UNI, Iowa, Kansas and Texas Tech. They lose at Tulsa, at Texas, at TTU, at Baylor, vs Okie light, at KSU, vs TCU, at Oklahoma and at West VA. If they're somehow 6-5 going into Morgantown I anticipate I'll have the opportunity to buy off
Auburn U7 -180 1.80-1.00
Just don't think these kids are quite there yet with regards to the Malzahn offense and I don't think they get there until 2014. Could be another tough year on the Plains despite Ellis Johnson taking over the defense which was a great hire. They've had a ton of attrition in regards to kids not getting into school or getting kicked off the team and it could come back to bite them. I can't imagine them winning at LSU, at TAMU, vs UGA or vs Bama. Their best shot there would be vs UGA but even with that game they're coming off of away games at Arky and at UT. So IMO they are starting the year with 4 losses. They have 2 certain wins on their schedule against WCU and FAU. They have 2 likely wins against Washington St and Arkansas St though that Arky St game could be interesting. They have 4 legitimate tossup games vs Miss St, vs Ole Miss, at Arky and at UT. If they split those I win. If they go 3-1 I push. If they go 4-0 I lose. I just don't see them getting it done this year
Ville O10.5 EV 2.00-2.00
I do like the team and I like the addition of Dyer. I'm still getting the same value even after that announcement. The thing I like the most about this wager is the way their schedule sets up. Ohio will be one of their toughest games but they get all offseason to get ready. They have the rivalry game at Kentucky but its after a game with Eastern KY so they essentially get two weeks to prepare. They only get 5 days to prepare for Rutgers but its a home Thursday night game 5 days after Rutgers travels to SMU. They get 8 days to prepare for a Friday home game against UCF. UCF does have a bye week before and I will call this their best chance for a loss. They then have 8 days to prepare for an away game at USF. Then they are afforded a bye week before an away game at UCONN followed by 8 days to prepare for Houston. They travel to Cinci for the season ender and they will have to lose this game to lose the bet IMO. This affords me the opportunity to buy out of the wager should I wish to do so.
Pittsburgh U6.5 -120 2.40-2.00
Savage barely beat out Voytik, a FR QB who was a 3 star with decent but not great offers. Consider me unimpressed that Savage didn't beat him out sooner. Also Pitt has 2 certain wins on the schedule being vs New Mexico and vs Old Dominion. They are currently greater than or equal to a TD dog vs FSU, at VaTech, vs Notre Dame, and vs Miami which is 4 likely losses and that's just on games currently lined by 5Dimes. All other outlets have this number at 6 so I'm getting half a game for free here. So with the aforementioned I have them at 2-4...so what do their other 6 games hold? They will be dogged by a TD or more at GT and probably by 4-6 points vs UNC so that is 6 games where they are a dogged. Throw in tossups at Duke, vs UVA, at Navy and at Syracuse and I really like my chances. I think O/U 5.5 EV is a more appropriate line for this years Pitt squad
Arizona St +400 to win Pac 12 South
Like the Devils but don't love them this year. However this has solid value IMO. The South is a 3.5-4 team race. I think the pure rank of teams goes USC, Ariz St, UCLA, Arizona. I can certainly understand some dissent with that ranking. The issue with USC's schedule is they travel to Arizona St, Oregon St and get Stanford at home. They do avoid Oregon from the North. Arizona St draws USC at home, Oregon St at home and Stanford on the road. They get Arizona at home while drawing UCLA on the road. My prediction is both teams have 2 conference losses but Arizona St beats USC. This gives Arizona St the tiebreaker. The problem with the Bruins is they travel to both Stanford and Oregon which likely gives them 2 losses. Therefore they only need one more loss to not be included in the tiebreaker. This loss could happen at Zona, vs Zona St or at USC. Arizona gets Oregon at home and avoids Stanford. However they travel to Washington, USC and Arizona St. They draw UCLA at home. If they split those 4 they will have 3 conference losses as well. I'm predicting ASU and USC both with 2 conference losses and ASU to win the head to head tiebreaker. However I do believe USC finishes 10-3 and Kiffin retains his job.
Ohio St +100 to win Big 10 2.00 - 2.00
Coaches typically improve in year 2 though its going to be hard to improve on an undefeated season. Braxton has plenty of experience and a quiet offseason. Defense going to be questionable again but they might score 50 per game. The leaders division features the best team in the conference and then arguably the 4th best team in the conference which gives tOSU a great shot to make it to the Champ game. They get Wisky at home coming off of FAMU so essentially two weeks to prepare. They also get Penn St at home. If they win both of those they're going to the B10 championship game regardless of a slip up against either NW or Michigan. I feel very strongly that the Buckeyes will be playing in the B10 Champ game and I'll go ahead and take them as EV in that game regardless of opponent.
GT to Win Coastal +355 0.50-1.78
I do like this team more than most. I think 355 is a decent number but not great which is why I only put half a unit on it. Four contenders in coastal being VT, Miami, UNC and GT. Regarding schedules: VT has to travel to GT on a Thursday coming off a game against a pretty good Marshall squad. They aren't going to have much time to prepare for the option which will be improved since they last saw it in their 2012 opener. VT follows GT by getting UNC at home and later in the season they have to go to Miami. They also play UVA on the road but have a week off prior. VT's biggest advantage is no Clemson or FSU so GT has to beat them to win the tiebreaker. I think GT beats them on a short week. Miami does draw GT at home and travels to UNC on a Thursday night. I have to have them split these games, lose at FSU which they likely will and hopefully drop 1 more along the way which is possible though I respect the Morris-Golden combo this year. Losing to VT at home or having their annual WTF game should put them at 3 conference losses. UNC travels to GT, to VT and to NCSU. The rest of their ACC schedule is a joke as they avoid Clemson/FSU. GT has to win this one at home for this wager to have a chance. The short of it is GT needs home wins against UNC and VT. They plays UNC, VT, Miami 3 consecutive weeks so they will likely lose to Miami. They will likely lose at Clemson on Thursday night. By holding the tiebreaker over UNC and VT I will need Miami to drop a 3rd conference game. I see it unfolding that way but we'll see. The value just wasn't there to back Miami or I would have
Alabama O11 wins +140 2.00-2.80
I have this available and the other numbers I've seen aren't even close to this value. 5Dimes currently has this at +105 which I think would still warrant some money from me if I didn't have the +140. 2008 Bama had 12 regular season wins, 2009 they had 12, 2010 they had 9, 2011 they had 11, and 2012 they had 11. They get TAMU coming off a bye and LSU at home off a bye. The only potential slip up is at Miss St IMO but they should be relatively well rested even after FSU and have Chatta the next week. They will be favored by at least 10 points in every game. Unreal that they avoid SoCar, UGA and Florida but it should be profitable although it robs us of quality matchups. Crazy but Bama may only face 4 ranked teams this regular season by the time it's all said and done
Iowa St U6 wins -175 3.50-2.00
Best price I could find by far. They essentially have the same schedule this year. The only replacement is Western Illinois for Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa will have a legitimate chance of beating them and they damn near did in 2011. ISU beat Tulsa at home last year. This year they play at Tulsa on a Thursday night. Last year they beat Iowa. They may very well beat Iowa again as it is at home this year. Last year they beat TCU and Baylor. Even with wins against TCU, Baylor, Iowa and Western Illinois they still only won 6 regular season games which would be a push. I just can't see them any better than 6-6 and I really think they're a 4-8 team. I think they get wins over UNI, Iowa, Kansas and Texas Tech. They lose at Tulsa, at Texas, at TTU, at Baylor, vs Okie light, at KSU, vs TCU, at Oklahoma and at West VA. If they're somehow 6-5 going into Morgantown I anticipate I'll have the opportunity to buy off
Auburn U7 -180 1.80-1.00
Just don't think these kids are quite there yet with regards to the Malzahn offense and I don't think they get there until 2014. Could be another tough year on the Plains despite Ellis Johnson taking over the defense which was a great hire. They've had a ton of attrition in regards to kids not getting into school or getting kicked off the team and it could come back to bite them. I can't imagine them winning at LSU, at TAMU, vs UGA or vs Bama. Their best shot there would be vs UGA but even with that game they're coming off of away games at Arky and at UT. So IMO they are starting the year with 4 losses. They have 2 certain wins on their schedule against WCU and FAU. They have 2 likely wins against Washington St and Arkansas St though that Arky St game could be interesting. They have 4 legitimate tossup games vs Miss St, vs Ole Miss, at Arky and at UT. If they split those I win. If they go 3-1 I push. If they go 4-0 I lose. I just don't see them getting it done this year
Ville O10.5 EV 2.00-2.00
I do like the team and I like the addition of Dyer. I'm still getting the same value even after that announcement. The thing I like the most about this wager is the way their schedule sets up. Ohio will be one of their toughest games but they get all offseason to get ready. They have the rivalry game at Kentucky but its after a game with Eastern KY so they essentially get two weeks to prepare. They only get 5 days to prepare for Rutgers but its a home Thursday night game 5 days after Rutgers travels to SMU. They get 8 days to prepare for a Friday home game against UCF. UCF does have a bye week before and I will call this their best chance for a loss. They then have 8 days to prepare for an away game at USF. Then they are afforded a bye week before an away game at UCONN followed by 8 days to prepare for Houston. They travel to Cinci for the season ender and they will have to lose this game to lose the bet IMO. This affords me the opportunity to buy out of the wager should I wish to do so.
Pittsburgh U6.5 -120 2.40-2.00
Savage barely beat out Voytik, a FR QB who was a 3 star with decent but not great offers. Consider me unimpressed that Savage didn't beat him out sooner. Also Pitt has 2 certain wins on the schedule being vs New Mexico and vs Old Dominion. They are currently greater than or equal to a TD dog vs FSU, at VaTech, vs Notre Dame, and vs Miami which is 4 likely losses and that's just on games currently lined by 5Dimes. All other outlets have this number at 6 so I'm getting half a game for free here. So with the aforementioned I have them at 2-4...so what do their other 6 games hold? They will be dogged by a TD or more at GT and probably by 4-6 points vs UNC so that is 6 games where they are a dogged. Throw in tossups at Duke, vs UVA, at Navy and at Syracuse and I really like my chances. I think O/U 5.5 EV is a more appropriate line for this years Pitt squad
Arizona St +400 to win Pac 12 South
Like the Devils but don't love them this year. However this has solid value IMO. The South is a 3.5-4 team race. I think the pure rank of teams goes USC, Ariz St, UCLA, Arizona. I can certainly understand some dissent with that ranking. The issue with USC's schedule is they travel to Arizona St, Oregon St and get Stanford at home. They do avoid Oregon from the North. Arizona St draws USC at home, Oregon St at home and Stanford on the road. They get Arizona at home while drawing UCLA on the road. My prediction is both teams have 2 conference losses but Arizona St beats USC. This gives Arizona St the tiebreaker. The problem with the Bruins is they travel to both Stanford and Oregon which likely gives them 2 losses. Therefore they only need one more loss to not be included in the tiebreaker. This loss could happen at Zona, vs Zona St or at USC. Arizona gets Oregon at home and avoids Stanford. However they travel to Washington, USC and Arizona St. They draw UCLA at home. If they split those 4 they will have 3 conference losses as well. I'm predicting ASU and USC both with 2 conference losses and ASU to win the head to head tiebreaker. However I do believe USC finishes 10-3 and Kiffin retains his job.
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