Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Hearing some regular horse players may sit this one out with the approval by Maryland Racing to allow Baffert horses to run, but I don't think it will have much impact on the wagering numbers.
The Preakness sets up as a pretty simple race from an analysis standpoint. Medina Spirit needs the lead and probably has the speed to get it. Midnight Bourbon and Concert Tour are the only two that can challenge for the early lead, and the former is just not as quick, while the latter is the other Baffert horse so I would expect him not to engage in a speed duel, instead setting up directly off Medina Spirit's right flank. When attending the pace Midnight Bourbon has not shown an ability to pass, getting outfinished from a prime stalking position in the La Derby and the Risen Star. With Medina Spirit's proven tenacity I don't see him getting by here either. Concert Tour? Maybe, although he'll be giving up ground to Medina running a path or two outside him and he wilted at the 9 furlong distance in Arkansas.
Crowded Trade should set up shop just behind the front 3. He has the top speed rating in the field, which makes him dangerous, and his Wood effort was pretty good as he swung 7 wide into the stretch and still only lost by a length, but his trainer Chad Brown says he is stretching the limit of his distance abilities going the 9.5 furlongs. If you recall Chad threw some cold water on Highly Motivated in a pre-race interview as well, and was absolutely correct in his analysis.
The other Derby horse in the field is Keepmeinmind, who broke dead last two weeks ago and worked his way all the way to 7th. With his current fitness level he's definitely a show bet and could be a sneaky 2nd place choice to pump up exactas and tris.
As far as the other new shooters go:
Ram will be saving ground all the way, has won his last two and exhibits a good finishing kick. But he was a maiden claimer just 4 weeks ago!
Risk Taking is the other Chad Brown horse, was well thought of at the start of the Triple Crown season, won the Withers in a nice effort, then laid an egg as the favorite in the Wood. Now he's here. He sits midpack and will need to replicate his Withers and maiden breaking stretch runs to be interesting. I can't see him on top but 2nd is not out of the question.
Rombauer ran a quality race in the Blue Grass, finishing about 6 lengths behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. He was also an OK 5th in the BC Juvenile, finishing about 6 lengths behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. His two wins are on turf and tapeta, which means he's probably at best 6 lengths behind the leaders here too. That might make him OK to finish 3rd.
Unbridled Honor comes out of the Pletcher barn and considering he had four in the Derby this is not one of his best. He will start at the back of the pack, hope for a breakneck pace and come running late. The water here appears to be too deep for him.
France Go de Ina is the mystery horse, coming in from Japan by way of Dubai. He finished a distant sixth in an impressive UAE Derby and his winning 9 furlong times in Japan can best be classified as slow.
I rate them as follows:
Win A) Median Spirit B) Concert Tour---Crowded Trade
Place A) Concert Tour---Crowded Trade---Keepmeinmind B)Midnight Bourbon---Risk Taking
Show A) Keepmeinmind---Crowded Trade---Midnight Bourbon B) Risk Taking---Rombauer
The Preakness sets up as a pretty simple race from an analysis standpoint. Medina Spirit needs the lead and probably has the speed to get it. Midnight Bourbon and Concert Tour are the only two that can challenge for the early lead, and the former is just not as quick, while the latter is the other Baffert horse so I would expect him not to engage in a speed duel, instead setting up directly off Medina Spirit's right flank. When attending the pace Midnight Bourbon has not shown an ability to pass, getting outfinished from a prime stalking position in the La Derby and the Risen Star. With Medina Spirit's proven tenacity I don't see him getting by here either. Concert Tour? Maybe, although he'll be giving up ground to Medina running a path or two outside him and he wilted at the 9 furlong distance in Arkansas.
Crowded Trade should set up shop just behind the front 3. He has the top speed rating in the field, which makes him dangerous, and his Wood effort was pretty good as he swung 7 wide into the stretch and still only lost by a length, but his trainer Chad Brown says he is stretching the limit of his distance abilities going the 9.5 furlongs. If you recall Chad threw some cold water on Highly Motivated in a pre-race interview as well, and was absolutely correct in his analysis.
The other Derby horse in the field is Keepmeinmind, who broke dead last two weeks ago and worked his way all the way to 7th. With his current fitness level he's definitely a show bet and could be a sneaky 2nd place choice to pump up exactas and tris.
As far as the other new shooters go:
Ram will be saving ground all the way, has won his last two and exhibits a good finishing kick. But he was a maiden claimer just 4 weeks ago!
Risk Taking is the other Chad Brown horse, was well thought of at the start of the Triple Crown season, won the Withers in a nice effort, then laid an egg as the favorite in the Wood. Now he's here. He sits midpack and will need to replicate his Withers and maiden breaking stretch runs to be interesting. I can't see him on top but 2nd is not out of the question.
Rombauer ran a quality race in the Blue Grass, finishing about 6 lengths behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. He was also an OK 5th in the BC Juvenile, finishing about 6 lengths behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. His two wins are on turf and tapeta, which means he's probably at best 6 lengths behind the leaders here too. That might make him OK to finish 3rd.
Unbridled Honor comes out of the Pletcher barn and considering he had four in the Derby this is not one of his best. He will start at the back of the pack, hope for a breakneck pace and come running late. The water here appears to be too deep for him.
France Go de Ina is the mystery horse, coming in from Japan by way of Dubai. He finished a distant sixth in an impressive UAE Derby and his winning 9 furlong times in Japan can best be classified as slow.
I rate them as follows:
Win A) Median Spirit B) Concert Tour---Crowded Trade
Place A) Concert Tour---Crowded Trade---Keepmeinmind B)Midnight Bourbon---Risk Taking
Show A) Keepmeinmind---Crowded Trade---Midnight Bourbon B) Risk Taking---Rombauer
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