Preakness 2015 discussion

T

The_HAMMER

Pretty much a regular
CALLING ON:

GAME HUNTER, Gandolf, TheKING, Lloyd Braun, Play2Win and others.......

Hard to not see one of the top 3 Derby finishers win this race. Looking for some opinions on any of the better priced horses to hit the board.

Danzig Moon, Tale of Verve, Divining Rod...any thoughts gents?

:cheers3:
 
I am going to hammer firing line WPS. Gary Stevens was ecstatic about the Baffert horses post positions. He thought being next to MR Z, who should be the early speed in race, would suck both bafferts in and tire them out. Stevens says FL has no problem hanging close right outside the speed. I don't believe in APs jock and he already said he should have fired AP sooner in the Derby and may look to head out front. I think FL probably the most rested out of the horses in contention and has a great shot to win. Hearing some folks like Dansig Moon but going to keep things simple on this.
 
AP is going to be line 3/5 or worse. He was ridden hard in the derby, he is likely to win the Preakness though IMO because he is in for but will be interesting to see if post causes any issues and how he responds, hasn't really faced too much adversity.

Probably not a triple crown horse though, gonna get toasted in the Belmont...that's where you make your cash.

Will most likely play super with ap/fl, dort/fl, dort, dm/* and look at under card and see if investing in pick 3/4/et al has any value work AP keyed.
 
Not gonna get too cute here ...Pletcher is waiting for the Belmont to fire all his bullets. The race office must've worked hard to get some fillers for this years Preakness. A couple new faces have zero chance. To me ,Bafferts complaint about the posts is just noise, it makes a difference in bulky fields. With the versatility and ability to break cleanly Bafferts horses have nothing to worry about they should both be just off the pace set by Mr.Z.

I'm a little worried about Firing Line in this one, he races best fresh had 6 weeks bt last race and Derby now wheels back in two weeks and looked spent after big game effort in Derby. Can't omit from tickets but wont be keyed. I liked Divining Rods last race he will need more to compete with the big guns but may get a trip to play spoiler on tickets.

Because value will be short I'm playing the superfecta.

American Pharaoh/Dortmund/Danzig Moon,Divining Rod,FiringLine/Danzig Moon,Divining Rod,Firing Line,Mr.Z then key Dortmund for 3rd underneath.
 
Da Hoss said:
Not gonna get too cute here ...Pletcher is waiting for the Belmont to fire all his bullets. The race office must've worked hard to get some fillers for this years Preakness. A couple new faces have zero chance. To me ,Bafferts complaint about the posts is just noise, it makes a difference in bulky fields. With the versatility and ability to break cleanly Bafferts horses have nothing to worry about they should both be just off the pace set by Mr.Z.

I'm a little worried about Firing Line in this one, he races best fresh had 6 weeks bt last race and Derby now wheels back in two weeks and looked spent after big game effort in Derby. Can't omit from tickets but wont be keyed. I liked Divining Rods last race he will need more to compete with the big guns but may get a trip to play spoiler on tickets.

Because value will be short I'm playing the superfecta.

American Pharaoh/Dortmund/Danzig Moon,Divining Rod,FiringLine/Danzig Moon,Divining Rod,Firing Line,Mr.Z then key Dortmund for 3rd underneath.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
Starting to get nervous about a firing line bounce. He usually gets much more rest in between races.
 
Canes1 said:
Starting to get nervous about a firing line bounce. He usually gets much more rest in between races.
Click to expand...
Mixed feelings, outside draw is nice but agree about concerns with rest. Thinking this isn't a great betting race, rail may not help AP but should get job done, should have an honest early pace, Danzig Moon is the sleeper not sure if he's good enough to win.
 
Pharaoh -140 to win at my book....I think he gets it done today then loses at the Belmont. Firing Line is a great horse but he doesn't win....lot of 2nd place finishes. Exacta AP/FL is solid. Best longshot today looks like Bodhisattva then Mr. Z. I'm going to avoid Dortmund....call me crazy but Baffert wants the Triple Crown ya? Shocked if Dortmund takes down AP today.
 
yea I played my original ticket but gonna box 1,2,4,7 in exacta box after the shower they just had
 
The rain threw everything besides AP to win out the window. He was the only horse in the field that had a win on a sloppy track. Most of the field had never even run on a sloppy track before.

Need to discount the margin of victory as well, as off-tracks will often exaggerate results.

Materiality, Carpe Diem, maybe even Upstart will probably be the fiercest competition for AP in the Belmont. If he goes it will be AP's 4th race in 8 weeks, which is a heavy workload these days, and he'll be facing a whole cast of fresher horses. Pace scenario will be a big factor.
 
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