Michael Jackson
Pretty much a regular
Will Orb pull it off? Thoughts?
Preakness 2013
- Thread starter Michael Jackson
- Start date
Michael Jackson
Pretty much a regular
I agree. Who u like Twink?
Michael Jackson
Pretty much a regular
4th time since 2000 the Preakness field numbers 9 or fewer. The Derby winner has lost the prior 3.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
If you think Orb will get beat, then IMO Departing is the bet. I don't see anything that ran in the Derby that can beat Orb. Did the Derby fall apart? Yes. But he already proved he was real deal in the Florida Derby running by Itsmyluckyday like he was standing still.
I didn't like Goldencents going into the Derby, and i dont like him having to sit off of Titletown Five.
I still think Orb is heads and shoulders above these. I'm playing him over Oxbow and Departing.
I didn't like Goldencents going into the Derby, and i dont like him having to sit off of Titletown Five.
I still think Orb is heads and shoulders above these. I'm playing him over Oxbow and Departing.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Emollient looks like a standout in the BES today Streakin. Fiftyshadesofhay is the other name horse with Baffert and Rosario teaming up, but there's so much early pace in this it'll be tough for the frontrunners like Hay and Manuka Honey and Marathon Lady to not wilt. The price horse that might be interesting is Maracuya making his 3rd start with Velazquez aboard, but with the scratch of the #5 the odds on her will probably drop from 8 down to 4 or 5:1.
Late Pick 4 Races 9-12 for $45: 2,7,8/3,6,7/3,4,7,10,13/4,7
Late Pick 4 Races 9-12 for $45: 2,7,8/3,6,7/3,4,7,10,13/4,7
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
In the Preakness, there are some conflicting trends at work:
1) Horses coming on to win the Derby from greater than 10 lengths back have a less than stellar Preakness record (0 for 8 since 1989). This is a negative for Orb, although it's mitigated somewhat by the fact that Orb went in as the favorite, so there's some legitimacy to his win when compared to a Giacomo, Mine That Bird or Monarchos.
2) New shooters are at a disadvantage vs. Derby horses because the two-week turnaround puts the Derby horses in with a significant fitness edge. For Govenor Charlie the near two months since his last race puts him at a major disadvantage. Departing with three weeks since his Illinois Derby win is in a better spot.
Pimlico has flatter turn banking than most tracks, which makes it tough to generate momentum on the turn, as in doing so you'll tend to float out. However, the stretch is quite long, so there's time to build momentum there the way I'll Have Another did. Orb has shown the ability to stay a little closer to the pace from his Florida Derby win, so we can't assume he'll be too far back at the top of the stretch to reel in the front-runners.
The question becomes if Orb doesn't run to his Derby level, who can beat him?
Speed and Thorograph figures to date suggest a few possibilities:
Itsmyluckyday - Throw out his Derby effort, he simply didn't like the slop. His January-February efforts are still good enough to win here. The problem is he's now 2 races and 3 months removed from them. Seems like he's just going the wrong way.
Goldencents - Another horse that didn't take to the slop. Would need his best effort and Titletown Five to take back as Lukas is suggesting he might. Of the early speed he's probably the best.
Mylute - Ran big in the Derby to finish fifth, has a similar running style to Orb. If Orb isn't at his best this is the guy who can replace him as the big stretch finisher.
The others:
Departing - Still improving, only his 6 race of his career. Can put some serious egg on Churchill Down's face with a win, given that they left the Illinois Derby off the trail. In that respect he'll get some play, but I'm going to let him beat me.
Oxbow - The one horse in this race that was anywhere near the front-runners in the Derby and was able to finish well. Usually that's a pretty good angle, but his speed figures are still are little short and this will be his 10th race in 7 months, so looking for improvement is dicey.
Will Take Charge - Had a bit of trouble late in the Derby which hurt his final position, but he would need to be about a second faster than he's shown to even be in the photo. That's a big jump at this point.
Titletown Five - Wants the lead, but has not shown the overall speed to hold it against this kind of class level at this kind of distance.
For the Pick 3's & Pick 4's I'll probably lean on Orb and Mylute with some backups on Goldencents. By the look of Races 9-11 I'm going to have to go short in the Preakness to even build affordable tickets. Those three races are inscrutable.
For the race itself Orb & Mylute over Orb, Mylute and Departing in the exacta. With only nine it's not the best betting race.
1) Horses coming on to win the Derby from greater than 10 lengths back have a less than stellar Preakness record (0 for 8 since 1989). This is a negative for Orb, although it's mitigated somewhat by the fact that Orb went in as the favorite, so there's some legitimacy to his win when compared to a Giacomo, Mine That Bird or Monarchos.
2) New shooters are at a disadvantage vs. Derby horses because the two-week turnaround puts the Derby horses in with a significant fitness edge. For Govenor Charlie the near two months since his last race puts him at a major disadvantage. Departing with three weeks since his Illinois Derby win is in a better spot.
Pimlico has flatter turn banking than most tracks, which makes it tough to generate momentum on the turn, as in doing so you'll tend to float out. However, the stretch is quite long, so there's time to build momentum there the way I'll Have Another did. Orb has shown the ability to stay a little closer to the pace from his Florida Derby win, so we can't assume he'll be too far back at the top of the stretch to reel in the front-runners.
The question becomes if Orb doesn't run to his Derby level, who can beat him?
Speed and Thorograph figures to date suggest a few possibilities:
Itsmyluckyday - Throw out his Derby effort, he simply didn't like the slop. His January-February efforts are still good enough to win here. The problem is he's now 2 races and 3 months removed from them. Seems like he's just going the wrong way.
Goldencents - Another horse that didn't take to the slop. Would need his best effort and Titletown Five to take back as Lukas is suggesting he might. Of the early speed he's probably the best.
Mylute - Ran big in the Derby to finish fifth, has a similar running style to Orb. If Orb isn't at his best this is the guy who can replace him as the big stretch finisher.
The others:
Departing - Still improving, only his 6 race of his career. Can put some serious egg on Churchill Down's face with a win, given that they left the Illinois Derby off the trail. In that respect he'll get some play, but I'm going to let him beat me.
Oxbow - The one horse in this race that was anywhere near the front-runners in the Derby and was able to finish well. Usually that's a pretty good angle, but his speed figures are still are little short and this will be his 10th race in 7 months, so looking for improvement is dicey.
Will Take Charge - Had a bit of trouble late in the Derby which hurt his final position, but he would need to be about a second faster than he's shown to even be in the photo. That's a big jump at this point.
Titletown Five - Wants the lead, but has not shown the overall speed to hold it against this kind of class level at this kind of distance.
For the Pick 3's & Pick 4's I'll probably lean on Orb and Mylute with some backups on Goldencents. By the look of Races 9-11 I'm going to have to go short in the Preakness to even build affordable tickets. Those three races are inscrutable.
For the race itself Orb & Mylute over Orb, Mylute and Departing in the exacta. With only nine it's not the best betting race.
Streakin
Pretty much a regular
thanks for your thoughts, G
Michael Jackson
Pretty much a regular
Great info. Thanks Gandolf. Plating the pick 4 at Los Alamitos on TVG
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Redboarding Preakness Thoughts....
Absolutely nailed the 3rd/4th place exacta. Yay for me hahaha. How silly is it that a simple five horse box on the Derby horses would've nailed both the super for 1800 and the High Five for 16 grand? Ugh.
Absolutely nailed the 3rd/4th place exacta. Yay for me hahaha. How silly is it that a simple five horse box on the Derby horses would've nailed both the super for 1800 and the High Five for 16 grand? Ugh.
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