"Brown" a Big Package That Will Be Tough to Beat in Preakness
By Michael Dempsey | Date 05/16
(Saturday, May 17) After an authoritative victory in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, only one foe he beat that day is even bothering to come back to face him again in the $1 million Preakness Stakes (G1) this afternoon at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland.
The undefeated colt will greet ten newcomers to the second jewel of the Triple Crown, all looking overmatched.
Gayego is the only Derby runner coming back for a rematch, and the colt finished 36 ¾ lengths behind the Derby winner at Churchill Downs.
Behindatthebar has been scratched out of the race. The Lexington Stakes (G2) winner has a bruised left front foot, and will not ship in to Pimlico from Belmont Park, where he is stabled with trainer Todd Pletcher.
That leaves a field of 12 for Saturday's race.
Can anyone beat the mighty Big Brown?
Despite picking him a full eight weeks before the Derby for a magazine article I wrote, I tried to beat him on Derby Day with Z Fortune.
I convinced myself that getting less than 3/1 on Big Brown breaking from the 20 post in just his third career start just was not good value.
Yeah, right.
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I don't think I will go down that road again. While it will be tough to wager on Big Brown to win at 2/5, there is a possibility we could still see some decent exotics. Kentucky Bear is listed at 15/1 on the morning line, but probably will be a lower price in the other pools. Riley Tucker is one possible longshot that might spruce up the payoffs.
I am going to look for value, and there will be plenty to be found on Saturday, just not in the Preakness. There are 12 other races on the marathon Pimlico card. Toss in ten at Churchill Downs and another ten at Belmont Park, and that gives us 32 other races to ponder.
At Pimlico, in addition to the Preakness, there is a stakes filled card that includes the $250,000 Dixie Stakes (G2), $100,000 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes (G3), $150,000 Allaire Dupont Distaff Stakes (G2), $100,000 Gallorette Handicap (G3), $100,000 Maryland Sprint Handicap (G3) and the $100,000 Barbaro Stakes.
There is a early Pick 4 (races 4-7) that offers a $250,000 guaranteed pool and a late Pick 4 (races 9-12) with a $1 million guaranteed pool.
With Big Brown anchoring the late Pick 4, turning it into a Pick 3 unless you are going against the big favorite, the early Pick 4 looks more attractive from a wagering standpoint.
Out of the four races, the morning line favorite is my top pick in just one of the races in the sequence. That favorite is Roman Emperor, who will be tough to beat in the $100,000 Barbaro Stakes, which goes off as the seventh race on the card.
To purchase my full card report for Preakness Day
click here.
Here is a look at the Preakness:
PIM Race 12 Preakness S. G1 (6:15 et)
#7 Big Brown 1/2
#8 Kentucky Bear 15/1
#12 Gayego 8/1
#10 Riley Tucker 30/1
Analysis: #7 Big Brown is going to be very tough to beat even if he regresses a couple of lengths off his Derby win. I picked him to win for a magazine article a full eight weeks before the Derby and then got off him because of the short price and ended up with an ill advised pick of Z Fortune as I went shopping for a price. Can't bring myself to doing that again. Only knock is the quick turnaround as he faces all fresh faces except for #12 Gayego. However, he won with such authority at Churchill Downs it's hard to believe this guy is going to bounce off that effort. Tough to back him at such a short price and I guess we'll just have to play exotics and root for a chance to see a Triple Crown winner in three weeks.
#8 Kentucky Bear bounced back with a decent effort last out in the G1 Blue Grass, a third place finish. He was sent off at 4/1 in the G2 Fountain of Youth off his impressive maiden score in his debut and did not fire, checking in seventh. The colt makes just his fourth career start here and still appears to have some upside.
#12 Gayego is the lone runner other than the winner to come back after the Derby. He broke a step slow, had to steady in traffic in the opening furlong, was rank and packed it in readily less than a mile into the race, not pushed late by the jock. Blinkers go on here and he figures to be in the early mix with the hood added. Was up on the pace two back in his G2 Arkansas Derby win and that surface was kinder to outside stalkers and closers that day. Bounces back with a better effort here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4/5 or better.
EX: 7 / 1,8,10,12
TRI: 7,8 / 1,7,8,10,12 / 1,7,8,10,12,13
