Possible Week 4 Weather Impact

M

M.O.T

Pretty much a regular
I'm not sure if anyone is considering a play on the LSU-Auburn game this weekend but right now it looks like it will be a wet one. The rain is expected to set in Friday and last through the weekend, so it isn't one of the afternoon popup thunderstorms we see here during the Summer. The field drains better than it used to so it shouldn't be a slop fest, but there is a good chance it will be slick with rain during the game. I'll update this later in the week, if the front speeds up it may be out by gametime.

Any other possibilities?
 
Interesting. What side do you like in this game MOT, and do you like the UNDER or OVER, and how would your opinion change if the game were played in a downpour???
 
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There are all kinds of weather issues possible based on current weather reports around the nation for Saturday .. just hard to forecast this far out really. But we all ( self included ) better bump this thread come Friday so we can do what is necessary with our investments.. I am over invested in overs this week so I might have to bail on a bunch of crap. sigh.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Interesting. What side do you like in this game MOT, and do you like the UNDER or OVER, and how would your opinion change if the game were played in a downpour???
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I think the line is about right so I would stay away from a side. Had I seen 14 or so at 5d like some other places early Sunday I probably would have locked in LSU. I've thought for a while this would be a 3 TD LSU win, but I think the defense has shown enough inexperience at this point to think Auburn will put together a few drives and there is a very real backdoor possibility. The playmakers on defense we're used to seeing just aren't there, or are very young. LSU special teams are also down a notch.

On the other hand I can't play Auburn because I think LSU will get into the mid or upper 30's. I posted after the TCU game that not only will the execution and efficiency improve on offense with Cameron but we saw that Miles trusts what he has. The mindset is no longer to get into a field position/turnover battle. The goal with each possession is to drive and score, outside of certain situations ofcourse. I know that sounds absurd, but it hasn't always been the case recently. The offense has more playmakers than the defense now, and can operate efficiently enough to use them. Chavis has played a ton of people on defense so far, which isn't surprising given what was lost and the youth of the unit. I suspect there will be a more "normal" rotation this weekend and some of the inexperience I mention as a negative above may not be as apparent as he settles on his best combinations. Against TCU the theme was "trust". They weren't going to put young players in a position to possibly bust an assignment and blow the game. The last two weeks have been about getting as many people involved as they can. It's possible the defense on Saturday night, with scaled down rotations and a gameplan specifically for Auburn, looks much different than the last two weeks. SEC opener at night is a situational angle worth mentioning.

I think OVER would be the best play, but the weather would probably take me off that. But I still don't know that I would trust the defenses on the UNDER in that case either. I guess my official opinion would be over, if anything. Possibly under if the forecast looks real bad Saturday afternoon. I'll try to check in from the tailgate and let everyone know what it looks like.

With all that being said...I'm sure most here are aware of where my allegiance lies, so take it all with a grain of salt. I certainly don't know nearly as much about Auburn as the other side. I would be interested in hearing other opinions.

:shake:
 
Cam Cameron was arguably one of the best hires in the offseason. & it's paying big so far. I think the defense should get better as the year goes, but that offense is clicking. Cam is trying to make Mettenberger some money next year eh??
 
M.O.T said:
I think the line is about right so I would stay away from a side. Had I seen 14 or so at 5d like some other places early Sunday I probably would have locked in LSU. I've thought for a while this would be a 3 TD LSU win, but I think the defense has shown enough inexperience at this point to think Auburn will put together a few drives and there is a very real backdoor possibility. The playmakers on defense we're used to seeing just aren't there, or are very young. LSU special teams are also down a notch.

On the other hand I can't play Auburn because I think LSU will get into the mid or upper 30's. I posted after the TCU game that not only will the execution and efficiency improve on offense with Cameron but we saw that Miles trusts what he has. The mindset is no longer to get into a field position/turnover battle. The goal with each possession is to drive and score, outside of certain situations ofcourse. I know that sounds absurd, but it hasn't always been the case recently. The offense has more playmakers than the defense now, and can operate efficiently enough to use them. Chavis has played a ton of people on defense so far, which isn't surprising given what was lost and the youth of the unit. I suspect there will be a more "normal" rotation this weekend and some of the inexperience I mention as a negative above may not be as apparent as he settles on his best combinations. Against TCU the theme was "trust". They weren't going to put young players in a position to possibly bust an assignment and blow the game. The last two weeks have been about getting as many people involved as they can. It's possible the defense on Saturday night, with scaled down rotations and a gameplan specifically for Auburn, looks much different than the last two weeks. SEC opener at night is a situational angle worth mentioning.

I think OVER would be the best play, but the weather would probably take me off that. But I still don't know that I would trust the defenses on the UNDER in that case either. I guess my official opinion would be over, if anything. Possibly under if the forecast looks real bad Saturday afternoon. I'll try to check in from the tailgate and let everyone know what it looks like.

With all that being said...I'm sure most here are aware of where my allegiance lies, so take it all with a grain of salt. I certainly don't know nearly as much about Auburn as the other side. I would be interested in hearing other opinions.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply MOT. Yes I understand where your allegiance lies, but that also puts you in a position of probably knowing more about this game than the average capper, which is exactly why I solicited your opinion.

I have not been shy about expressing what a great hire I think Cam Cameron was. I think he quite possibly may be the best coaching hire of the year in college football. There was no question in my mind he would take LSU's offense and Mettengerger to another level, and I think we've seen that play out thus far. Don't you find it interesting that the strength of the two teams who played to a 9-6 OT shitfest two years is now offense???

I like the OVER quite a bit in this game so we're in agreement there, but inclement weather could certainly influence my opinion. I guess I'll just have to take a wait and see approach for the time being.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond.

:shake:
 
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HammersSpreads said:
Cam Cameron was arguably one of the best hires in the offseason. & it's paying big so far. I think the defense should get better as the year goes, but that offense is clicking. Cam is trying to make Mettenberger some money next year eh??
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I think at worst we're looking at the best play at QB we've had since Russell in 06 or Davey in 01, and possibly as good as we've seen since Hodson in the late 80's. I want to see what the offense does in a true road game next week, but there is a lot to be excited about.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Don't you find it interesting that the strength of the two teams who played to a 9-6 OT shitfest two years is now offense???
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Strange times indeed, although I have to give the offenses in that game a pass. Those defenses made everyone look like that. They were borderline legendary, for different reasons, in my book.
 
If it rains it favors Auburn IMO(in a sense). Like MOT said, believe it or not this team is looking to throw alot more this year

LSU O is going to be one of the better ones seen in a while in BR by years end
 
twinkie13 said:
It doesn't rain in Tiger Stadium
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It never rains in Tiger Stadium. But the monsoons I've sat through (notably Miss. State 96 and S. Carolina 07) I guess would have to be classified as something other than just rain. Nothing beats Dan Borne's PA announcement before the game. "Gametime temperature 83 degrees. Relative humidity 78%. Winds from the South at 5mph. Chance of rain....NEVER." While there is literally a river flowing down the aisle and nearly sweeping away women and small children.
 
M.O.T said:
It never rains in Tiger Stadium. But the monsoons I've sat through (notably Miss. State 96 and S. Carolina 07) I guess would have to be classified as something other than just rain. Nothing beats Dan Borne's PA announcement before the game. "Gametime temperature 83 degrees. Relative humidity 78%. Winds from the South at 5mph. Chance of rain....NEVER." While there is literally a river flowing down the aisle and nearly sweeping away women and small children.
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lol touche':shake:
 
Off the National Championship.....Oregon St(pretty sure).....MONSOON LOL

think it delayed the start
 
But it is amazing.....all the times coming out the Superdome raining or leaving and storming.....really doesnt rain much in DV
 
twinkie13 said:
If it rains it favors Auburn IMO(in a sense). Like MOT said, believe it or not this team is looking to throw alot more this year

LSU O is going to be one of the better ones seen in a while in BR by years end
Click to expand...
I don't even think it's about the amount of throwing, but just the aggressiveness and efficiency in which they have done it thus far. Very different than the past several years. Only 38 attempts, if I remember correctly, the last two weeks but the YPA is through the roof.

As for the Oregon State game in 04...it was a down pour early, but it stopped, then it was miserably hot and humid.
 
Who leads the SEC in QB efficiency right now MOT?:wacky:


Know who was last to be benched?

(disclaimer: I am here to mess with MOT back and forth...I get it..but still)
 
M.O.T said:
I don't even think it's about the amount of throwing, but just the aggressiveness and efficiency in which they have done it thus far. Very different than the past several years. Only 38 attempts, if I remember correctly, the last two weeks but the YPA is through the roof.

As for the Oregon State game in 04...it was a down pour early, but it stopped, then it was miserably hot and humid.
Click to expand...
They are letting him zing it.....and I love it
 
Still looking at 70-80% chance of rain in Baton Rouge Saturday. It is supposed to rain most of the day with the front moving through later in the afternoon. Right now it looks like a wet field and periods of rain during the game, but maybe not a constant down pour. I'll update again tomorrow night and again once I'm in BR Saturday.
 
There has been something like 4 inches of rain in Baton Rouge early this morning but the front is moving through and most of the rain will be out of the area by early afternoon. Chance of rain at game time is down to 40%. So it looks like probably just a slick field and the possibility of a lingering shower, but not a complete mess for the game.
 
yeah hopefully we get enough 1h scoring that the 2nd half doesn't matter much...not having any trouble so far
 
I'm right on the Stanford campus right now and it's raining. Not a real heavy rain but its steady. Not much wind either. Still 4.5 hours till game time so it could possibly clear up.
 
On campus at LSU 2 hours before kick. It has been dark and cloudy all day and a very light rain just started.
 
Roughly an hour before kick in BR. The rain has picked up a little but is still pretty light. But given the current conditions, what the sky looks like, and what the last 24 hours have been like...I would probably get off any overs at this point. Obviously the crowd/atmosphere is much different at this point than it would be under normal circumstances, so that is a positive for anyone considering Auburn.

I'm signing off, good luck.
 
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