Trail Blazers vs Kings: NBA Picks and Predictions
Portland vs Sacramento
Friday, October 25, 2019, at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Sacramento as a one-point home favorite against visiting Portland. But the line has moved in Portland’s favor as the Trail Blazers are now favored by 2.5 points.
One reason for the line movement is surely the injury to Sacramento’s starting power forward Marvin Bagley III. The former Blue Devil will be out 4-6 weeks with a thumb fracture.
The Kings Offer Little Inside Without Bagley
His presence will be missed as he was superbly athletic and moved so well for a big. His combo of athleticism and skill both in traffic and facing up with a defender one-on-one allowed him to average 14.9 points per game last year.
Without Bagley, the Kings carry less rim-attacking ability. But Bagley is a loss that will hurt their offense less against a Blazer interior defense that wasn’t going to concede many points in front of the basket against this King team, anyways.
Portland strengthened its rim protection with the increased role of Zach Collins. He had always been one of the best, in a smaller sample size, in limiting opposing field goal efficiency in front of the rim. Now he’s getting more playing time. In his season debut against Denver, Collins accrued a team-high two blocks.
Improvement in rim protection has come at the cost of Al-Farouq Aminu and Mo Harkless, who were also known for their tenacity on defense. But unlike Collins, they specialized against players on the wing and behind the perimeter.
Sacramento Exploits Portland’s Defensive Weakness Along The Perimeter
Even with Aminu and Harkless last year, the Blazers were not exactly known for their perimeter defense. They ranked in the bottom half in opposing three-point percentage.
In this season’s opener, their poor perimeter defense was a significant reason for their loss to Denver as the Nuggets took advantage of sundry open shot opportunities to make 18 of 32 three-point attempts.
Aminu and Harkless will be missed in tonight’s match-up against a Kings squad that will be extra dependent on its performance behind the perimeter both because it misses Bagley and because of Portland’s shift in defensive focus towards rim protection.
One thing that Sacramento can do on offense is to utilize the versatility of its bigs to draw Portland’s bigs away from the basket. Hassan Whiteside and Collins lose a lot of their defensive ability when they’re forced to chase opposing activity behind the perimeter. Their deficiency in this regard was on display against Denver.
A King big who can bother Portland is Nemanja Bjelica. The power forward is a career 38-percent three-point shooter.
Another noteworthy Sacramento big is Dewayne Dedmon, who will see a boost in minutes in Bagley’s absence. Dedmon almost never posts up and is inefficient when he does. But the seven-footer is surprisingly potent from deep. Last year, as a Hawk, he made 38-percent of his three-point attempts.
Of course, the most important Sacramento offensive player is Buddy Hield. Hield is a big-time shooter as he converts over 40 percent of his three-point attempts in his career despite taking a high frequency of them.
In fact, his shooting volume is extraordinarily high. He’s so useful as he can catch-and-shoot, he’s unusually reliable as an open shot-taker, he’s clinical coming off of pins, and so on.
It is worth nothing that Hield is ‚questionable‘ for this game. He does think he can play despite being listed as day-to-day with a left ankle sprain. His running mate De’Aaron Fox also got banged up in the team’s last game. But Fox will certainly play.
If Hield is out, then you should bet on the Trail Blazers because Hield is responsible for a significant rate of Sacramento’s volume and efficiency from three. Without him and without a good overall night from three, the Kings would struggle to score as they’ll be limited inside against Whiteside and Harkless. Harrison Barnes and Bogdan Bogdanovic could only do so much behind the arc to make up for Hield’s absence.
Portland Owns Sacramento inside
Just as Sacramento is primed to exploit Portland’s defensive weakness along the perimeter, Portland is built to take advantage of Sacramento’s defensive weakness inside.
Hassan Whiteside is a positive addition for the Blazers as he should be very comfortable functioning as the roller to the basket, which is a role that he was one of the most successful occupying based on PPP (points per possession) last year in Miami. He’s a reliable double-digit inside scorer, overall.
Whiteside’s presence inside can create more room for the slash-and-dash tendencies of Dame Lillard. He and Whiteside will lead the Blazers inside against what was the 26th-ranked defense last year in the paint. Dedmon will hurt the Kings more in this regard as he ranked 51st last year in field goal percentage allowed six feet within the basket. I would also expect Portland’s second-best player C.J. McCollum to bounce back after a poor opening night.
Best Bet: Blazers/Kings Over 225 at -105 odds with Heritage
Portland vs Sacramento
Friday, October 25, 2019, at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Sacramento as a one-point home favorite against visiting Portland. But the line has moved in Portland’s favor as the Trail Blazers are now favored by 2.5 points.
One reason for the line movement is surely the injury to Sacramento’s starting power forward Marvin Bagley III. The former Blue Devil will be out 4-6 weeks with a thumb fracture.
The Kings Offer Little Inside Without Bagley
His presence will be missed as he was superbly athletic and moved so well for a big. His combo of athleticism and skill both in traffic and facing up with a defender one-on-one allowed him to average 14.9 points per game last year.
Without Bagley, the Kings carry less rim-attacking ability. But Bagley is a loss that will hurt their offense less against a Blazer interior defense that wasn’t going to concede many points in front of the basket against this King team, anyways.
Portland strengthened its rim protection with the increased role of Zach Collins. He had always been one of the best, in a smaller sample size, in limiting opposing field goal efficiency in front of the rim. Now he’s getting more playing time. In his season debut against Denver, Collins accrued a team-high two blocks.
Improvement in rim protection has come at the cost of Al-Farouq Aminu and Mo Harkless, who were also known for their tenacity on defense. But unlike Collins, they specialized against players on the wing and behind the perimeter.
Sacramento Exploits Portland’s Defensive Weakness Along The Perimeter
Even with Aminu and Harkless last year, the Blazers were not exactly known for their perimeter defense. They ranked in the bottom half in opposing three-point percentage.
In this season’s opener, their poor perimeter defense was a significant reason for their loss to Denver as the Nuggets took advantage of sundry open shot opportunities to make 18 of 32 three-point attempts.
Aminu and Harkless will be missed in tonight’s match-up against a Kings squad that will be extra dependent on its performance behind the perimeter both because it misses Bagley and because of Portland’s shift in defensive focus towards rim protection.
One thing that Sacramento can do on offense is to utilize the versatility of its bigs to draw Portland’s bigs away from the basket. Hassan Whiteside and Collins lose a lot of their defensive ability when they’re forced to chase opposing activity behind the perimeter. Their deficiency in this regard was on display against Denver.
A King big who can bother Portland is Nemanja Bjelica. The power forward is a career 38-percent three-point shooter.
Another noteworthy Sacramento big is Dewayne Dedmon, who will see a boost in minutes in Bagley’s absence. Dedmon almost never posts up and is inefficient when he does. But the seven-footer is surprisingly potent from deep. Last year, as a Hawk, he made 38-percent of his three-point attempts.
Of course, the most important Sacramento offensive player is Buddy Hield. Hield is a big-time shooter as he converts over 40 percent of his three-point attempts in his career despite taking a high frequency of them.
In fact, his shooting volume is extraordinarily high. He’s so useful as he can catch-and-shoot, he’s unusually reliable as an open shot-taker, he’s clinical coming off of pins, and so on.
It is worth nothing that Hield is ‚questionable‘ for this game. He does think he can play despite being listed as day-to-day with a left ankle sprain. His running mate De’Aaron Fox also got banged up in the team’s last game. But Fox will certainly play.
If Hield is out, then you should bet on the Trail Blazers because Hield is responsible for a significant rate of Sacramento’s volume and efficiency from three. Without him and without a good overall night from three, the Kings would struggle to score as they’ll be limited inside against Whiteside and Harkless. Harrison Barnes and Bogdan Bogdanovic could only do so much behind the arc to make up for Hield’s absence.
Portland Owns Sacramento inside
Just as Sacramento is primed to exploit Portland’s defensive weakness along the perimeter, Portland is built to take advantage of Sacramento’s defensive weakness inside.
Hassan Whiteside is a positive addition for the Blazers as he should be very comfortable functioning as the roller to the basket, which is a role that he was one of the most successful occupying based on PPP (points per possession) last year in Miami. He’s a reliable double-digit inside scorer, overall.
Whiteside’s presence inside can create more room for the slash-and-dash tendencies of Dame Lillard. He and Whiteside will lead the Blazers inside against what was the 26th-ranked defense last year in the paint. Dedmon will hurt the Kings more in this regard as he ranked 51st last year in field goal percentage allowed six feet within the basket. I would also expect Portland’s second-best player C.J. McCollum to bounce back after a poor opening night.
Best Bet: Blazers/Kings Over 225 at -105 odds with Heritage
