Trail Blazers vs. Warriors NBA Picks and Predictions
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors
Sunday, January 3, 2020 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, California
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Golden State has faced three teams that made the playoffs last season: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Portland.
Against those three teams, Golden State lost by an average margin of 30 points. The Warriors lost all three of those games by over 20 points despite not being dogged by more than 10 points in any one of those games.
When the Warriors match up with higher-quality teams, they are coming up short to a degree that is not being appreciated by NBA oddsmakers.
So the question is: what are the Warriors missing and how will their shortcomings matter in tonight’s game?
Bad Offense vs. Bad Defense
Results show that the Warrior offense is non-competitive against stronger opponents.
While the Warriors scored an average of 122.5 points against bottom-feeders Chicago and Detroit, they failed to reach 100 points against the Nets, Bucks, or Trail Blazers.
A Warrior backer may counter: well, look at Portland’s defensive statistics. We know that Portland is playoff-caliber offensively, but what about defensively?
It’s true that Portland’s defense seems to be bad by statistical measures like scoring defense.
Towards the beginning of the season, the Trail Blazer defense ranked towards the bottom in scoring defense and it still ranks closer to the bottom in this category.
But there are two things to note: Portland is trying to do new things defensively. So the road will be bumpier especially at the beginning. Statistics are season-long. So they will always reflect that initial learning period.
Two, the Trail Blazers have shown long stretches where they display minimal effort on defense.
However, in its more recent games, Portland has absolutely shown the ability to turn it on defensively and to play strong defense for long and decisive periods of time. You can expect this effort from Portland in games where it is competitive.
Against Houston, for example, Portland allowed 68 first-half points.
But the team held serious discussions during which players discovered untapped determination. Portland was able to win largely because it allowed 58 points combined in the third, fourth, and overtime periods.
Portland put its motivated defense on display also against the defending champs, whom Portland held to below their scoring average in its upset victory.
More Offense Than Defense
When the Trail Blazers held Golden State to fewer than 100 points, they showed that their poor defensive statistics were also a reflection of opponent quality.
At such an early stage in the season, statistics are deceiving to look at for this additional reason: parts of schedules can be very imbalanced in that, as in Portland’s case, a team can face a lot of other good teams on consecutive game-days.
So Portland gave up a lot of points to teams like the Clippers and Jazz that made the playoffs last year.
In fact, Golden State was Portland’s first soft opponent.
The Trail Blazers are always going to be known for having one of the NBA’s better offenses — they currently rank ninth in points per game — because of their two starting guards.
Against Golden State’s offense, the Trail Blazer offense was significantly better than its defense even needed to be.
Golden State’s Offense
Portland’s defense has a large margin of error against Golden State because the Warriors regularly struggle to score against non-bottom-feeders.
Draymond Green returning has arguably made things more difficult because the players are having a difficult time coexisting and creating positive spacing for each other.
Green, also, had not played in over nine months and hadn’t played with Steph Curry in over a year.
Speaking of fit, newcomer Kelly Oubre seems to be a terrible fit in the Warrior offense. He looks uncomfortable, unsettled, out of rhythm, and he lacks chemistry with his teammates on the floor. Right now, his three-point percentage is four.
These issues of fit and chemistry are too massive to approach resolution in any nearer future.
The Warriors also lack developed quality. While new first-round pick James Wiseman is talented, he hardly cultivated playing experience in college let alone in the NBA.
Portland’s Offense vs. Golden State Defense
Opposing backcourts have tormented the Warrior defense, which ranks last-place in allowing an average of 124 points per game.
In only one Golden State game did an opposing offense have a big man as its leading scorer. That one opponent was Detroit, which scored only 106 points and lost.
So offenses score enough against the Warriors when they are spearheaded by their guards.
Portland’s offense is in the hands of guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both easily lead the Trail Blazers with 28 and 25.2 points, respectively.
The Verdict
Golden State regularly fails to come close to covering the spread against playoff teams.
Tonight, Portland will prolong Golden State’s losing trend against playoff teams. The Trail Blazer defense is good enough to contain a Warrior offense that is filled with problems, problems of chemistry, development, and quality.
Offensively, the Trail Blazers are spearheaded by two guards who will put up a lot of points against the league-worst defense which would much rather face a more frontcourt-centered team.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers -5 at -108 with Heritage
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors
Sunday, January 3, 2020 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, California
Trend
Golden State has faced three teams that made the playoffs last season: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Portland.
Against those three teams, Golden State lost by an average margin of 30 points. The Warriors lost all three of those games by over 20 points despite not being dogged by more than 10 points in any one of those games.
When the Warriors match up with higher-quality teams, they are coming up short to a degree that is not being appreciated by NBA oddsmakers.
So the question is: what are the Warriors missing and how will their shortcomings matter in tonight’s game?
Bad Offense vs. Bad Defense
Results show that the Warrior offense is non-competitive against stronger opponents.
While the Warriors scored an average of 122.5 points against bottom-feeders Chicago and Detroit, they failed to reach 100 points against the Nets, Bucks, or Trail Blazers.
A Warrior backer may counter: well, look at Portland’s defensive statistics. We know that Portland is playoff-caliber offensively, but what about defensively?
It’s true that Portland’s defense seems to be bad by statistical measures like scoring defense.
Towards the beginning of the season, the Trail Blazer defense ranked towards the bottom in scoring defense and it still ranks closer to the bottom in this category.
But there are two things to note: Portland is trying to do new things defensively. So the road will be bumpier especially at the beginning. Statistics are season-long. So they will always reflect that initial learning period.
Two, the Trail Blazers have shown long stretches where they display minimal effort on defense.
However, in its more recent games, Portland has absolutely shown the ability to turn it on defensively and to play strong defense for long and decisive periods of time. You can expect this effort from Portland in games where it is competitive.
Against Houston, for example, Portland allowed 68 first-half points.
But the team held serious discussions during which players discovered untapped determination. Portland was able to win largely because it allowed 58 points combined in the third, fourth, and overtime periods.
Portland put its motivated defense on display also against the defending champs, whom Portland held to below their scoring average in its upset victory.
More Offense Than Defense
When the Trail Blazers held Golden State to fewer than 100 points, they showed that their poor defensive statistics were also a reflection of opponent quality.
At such an early stage in the season, statistics are deceiving to look at for this additional reason: parts of schedules can be very imbalanced in that, as in Portland’s case, a team can face a lot of other good teams on consecutive game-days.
So Portland gave up a lot of points to teams like the Clippers and Jazz that made the playoffs last year.
In fact, Golden State was Portland’s first soft opponent.
The Trail Blazers are always going to be known for having one of the NBA’s better offenses — they currently rank ninth in points per game — because of their two starting guards.
Against Golden State’s offense, the Trail Blazer offense was significantly better than its defense even needed to be.
Golden State’s Offense
Portland’s defense has a large margin of error against Golden State because the Warriors regularly struggle to score against non-bottom-feeders.
Draymond Green returning has arguably made things more difficult because the players are having a difficult time coexisting and creating positive spacing for each other.
Green, also, had not played in over nine months and hadn’t played with Steph Curry in over a year.
Speaking of fit, newcomer Kelly Oubre seems to be a terrible fit in the Warrior offense. He looks uncomfortable, unsettled, out of rhythm, and he lacks chemistry with his teammates on the floor. Right now, his three-point percentage is four.
These issues of fit and chemistry are too massive to approach resolution in any nearer future.
The Warriors also lack developed quality. While new first-round pick James Wiseman is talented, he hardly cultivated playing experience in college let alone in the NBA.
Portland’s Offense vs. Golden State Defense
Opposing backcourts have tormented the Warrior defense, which ranks last-place in allowing an average of 124 points per game.
In only one Golden State game did an opposing offense have a big man as its leading scorer. That one opponent was Detroit, which scored only 106 points and lost.
So offenses score enough against the Warriors when they are spearheaded by their guards.
Portland’s offense is in the hands of guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both easily lead the Trail Blazers with 28 and 25.2 points, respectively.
The Verdict
Golden State regularly fails to come close to covering the spread against playoff teams.
Tonight, Portland will prolong Golden State’s losing trend against playoff teams. The Trail Blazer defense is good enough to contain a Warrior offense that is filled with problems, problems of chemistry, development, and quality.
Offensively, the Trail Blazers are spearheaded by two guards who will put up a lot of points against the league-worst defense which would much rather face a more frontcourt-centered team.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers -5 at -108 with Heritage
