Portland -2 over RAPS

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Portland is very hot and I think there is value in this team vs the RAPS.

PORTLAND has been doing it with a hot Brandon ROY and the RAPS never cover these 2 guards well. Simply put the RAPS never do well vs slasher KOBE type players late in games.

PORTLAND has been winning with impressive DEFENCE. Check out these stats from thier last 5 games.

<TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblbdr3><TD colSpan=16 height=1></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Totals</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>31-76</TD><TD>4-26</TD><TD>10-14</TD><TD></TD><TD>18</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>76 </TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Percentages:</TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD>.408</TD><TD>.154</TD><TD>.714</TD><TD></TD><TD class=team-rebounds align=left colSpan=9>Team Rebounds: 5 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=7></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=16 height=18>New ORleans



Denver <TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>39-80</TD><TD>8-20</TD><TD>19-25</TD><TD></TD><TD>11</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>105 </TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Percentages:</TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD>.488</TD><TD>.400</TD><TD>.760</TD><TD></TD><TD class=team-rebounds align=left colSpan=9>Team Rebounds: 10 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>





</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Utah

<TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>37-94</TD><TD>0-13</TD><TD>17-23</TD><TD></TD><TD>18</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>91 </TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Percentages:</TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD>.394</TD><TD>.000</TD><TD>.739</TD><TD></TD><TD class=team-rebounds align=left colSpan=9>Team Rebounds: 9 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

GOlden State
<TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>233</TD><TD>35-87</TD><TD>13-35</TD><TD>12-13</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>95 </TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Percentages:</TD><TD></TD><TD>.402</TD><TD>.371</TD><TD>.923</TD><TD></TD><TD class=team-rebounds align=left colSpan=7>Team Rebounds</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Utah
<TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>34-89</TD><TD>5-19</TD><TD>16-23</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>89 </TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Percentages:</TD><TD></TD><TD>.382</TD><TD>.263</TD><TD>.696</TD><TD></TD><TD class=team-rebounds align=left colSpan=7>Team Rebounds: 7 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Millwaukee
<TABLE class=stats cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>40-92</TD><TD>8-20</TD><TD>25-28</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>113 </TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=sum align=left height=18>Percentages:</TD><TD></TD><TD>.435</TD><TD>.400</TD><TD>.893</TD><TD></TD><TD class=team-rebounds align=left colSpan=7>Team Rebounds</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


In each game Brandon ROY put in over 20 points. ALDRIGE is back, they were playing great without him, but he can cover BOSH. Having watched the RAPS, they are a streaky team, and this is the spots where they can win on the road vs the weak teams. RAPS will never win in DALLAS and San Antonio, but usually beat the average teams on the road.

However I think with Portland you are seeing a hot young team that has a star player in ROY, he is clutch and can create his own shot late in the game. The combination of FRYE, ALDRIDGE and pRYZBILLA will keep Bosh out of the paint.

I just see Portland winning this game, the old Portland was a great team for about 3 quarters and then would self destruct in the 4th quarter. I see the RAPS coming out hard, and maybe getting a lead, but this Portland team has beat some quality teams and will come back, that is the difference they are not kids and mentally weak, we are seeing a young star growing up in ROY.

Portland had some great defensive games holding Golden state to 95, utah to 89 and 91 and 76 to NOrleans
Portland allowed 113 adn 105 to Millwaukee and Denver but won both of those games outscoring them. This shows me they are winning both the higher scoring games and the lower scoring affairs.

I think beating Utah twice and Golden state and Denver and NORleans and Millwaukee is good, but to hold teams like UTAH and GSTATE to low shooting % is good because those are high shooting teams.

Everyone expects the Blazers to fall apart now, but I see them as a good team with a lot of athletes, Aldrige, ROy, Webster, Jack, guys like J jones, OUTLAW and Prybilla all have been scoring lately, also JACK is very good as well. This team has the athletes, and is starting to get it mentally and not collapse in the 4th quarters of games.
James Jones from Phoenix is playing great, Outlaw is getting his points, Webster too is scoring, they have so many scoring threats that is why they did not miss ALDRIDGE at all, in fact maybe they were better without him? THey have drafted well and have a lot of young studs all capable of scoring big points in any one game.

And to think that they drafted #1 overall and took that 38 yeard old rookie from Ohio state, Durant would have looked good with ROY and ALDRIDGE in the west.

Also Toronto has shot 37% vs Clippers and 38.9% vs Celtics, they are not shooting the ball well and won some games with some Defense.

Play is POrtland -2
 
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Yeah RAPS are basically a jump shooting team, any team that can play perimeter D on them like SANANTONio or DALLAS they are done. RAPS have never beat a premium team in the west. I do not see them winning here but the only concern is the back to back has no effect on the RAPS as they play better on back to backs, this team does not care about that. Once they win a few they can be streaky, but BOSH went to the line 16 times tonight i think, so if we can shut down BOSH it is lights out for the Raps.

I am just taking POrtland as I will go with the hot team and the better team, and if the Raps win then all the credit to them.

This line is -2 because POrtland is undervalued hell they were getting +14 last week at Utah, they cannot just make them -5 or -6 now, but this line will rise surely before gametime. I think at -2 it is almost a pickem type game and you have one team Portland that is better than the RAPS at this point in the season for sure, no question about that, RAPS are not a good team.
 
sammy, gotta tell ya, I'm not much of an NBA bettor, but i am a passionate Portland fan (although I did bet them second half against the Hornets the other night).....I LOVE this play, and I will be following with you on the Blazers tonight....This team is young and exciting, they can beat you with good D or by outscoring you if needed. I'd like our bench a little deeper, but were getting there (just cause were such a young team)....

Toronto I believe is on game 2 of a 7 game road trip out west and this could be a rough spot for the Raptors. BOL tonight
 
This year's blazers remind me a lot of last years Hawks team, they can win any game they aren't supposed to, but the second people start favoring them and other teams take them seriously, they lose. I think the Blazers are probably better though, but I'm not sure that there is "value" in the -2, but I would say that the line makes it seem like Vegas thinks they're gonna cover ... it's begging people to bet Toronto. BOL
 
This game, and on Friday at Seattle are ones that the Raps are looking for a W.

Suns, Rockets, San Antonio, New Orleans.....they are most likely going to lose.

Raps know their offense is just horrendous but have really stepped it up on the defensive front. What i'm starting to notice is that they really prefer getting a feel for the team in the 1st Q and than pick it up in the latter stages. However, that can be a dangerous spot as teams can certainly go on a hot streak and not look back. Bosh needs to attack attack attack the basket. If he does, the Raps will win. The Blazers do not have a very physical team and that should play to the Raptors advantage. Roy should be the major concern for the Raptors. However, i'm looking for Parker to match up well against him. Remember.....Portland is dead last in rebounding so if the Raps can toughen it up on the boards, there is one to do list filled. I think this game will be more of a 160 point type game. Grinder if you ask me. If the Blazers were a lot more physical, i'm sure they could wear the Raps out, but considering they are still a little soft i'm liking the Raptors chances.

Also, I do not believe the line is begging for action on the Raptors, but the other way around. Lets see here, Blazers on a 7 game win streak 10-3 at home and at -2? Blazers have been favored only 5 teams this season and are 2-3 ATS and out of those 5 teams played, i rate Toronto a whole lot better. GL
 
Toronto_Mike said:
Also, I do not believe the line is begging for action on the Raptors, but the other way around. Lets see here, Blazers on a 7 game win streak 10-3 at home and at -2? Blazers have been favored only 5 teams this season and are 2-3 ATS and out of those 5 teams played, i rate Toronto a whole lot better. GL
Click to expand...

Damn, I was way off on this. I've always thought the Raptors were a really public team for some reason, but it looks like people are pounding the Blazers.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
This game, and on Friday at Seattle are ones that the Raps are looking for a W.

Suns, Rockets, San Antonio, New Orleans.....they are most likely going to lose.

Raps know their offense is just horrendous but have really stepped it up on the defensive front. What i'm starting to notice is that they really prefer getting a feel for the team in the 1st Q and than pick it up in the latter stages. However, that can be a dangerous spot as teams can certainly go on a hot streak and not look back. Bosh needs to attack attack attack the basket. If he does, the Raps will win. The Blazers do not have a very physical team and that should play to the Raptors advantage. Roy should be the major concern for the Raptors. However, i'm looking for Parker to match up well against him. Remember.....Portland is dead last in rebounding so if the Raps can toughen it up on the boards, there is one to do list filled. I think this game will be more of a 160 point type game. Grinder if you ask me. If the Blazers were a lot more physical, i'm sure they could wear the Raps out, but considering they are still a little soft i'm liking the Raptors chances.

Also, I do not believe the line is begging for action on the Raptors, but the other way around. Lets see here, Blazers on a 7 game win streak 10-3 at home and at -2? Blazers have been favored only 5 teams this season and are 2-3 ATS and out of those 5 teams played, i rate Toronto a whole lot better. GL
Click to expand...


Toronto MIKE Vegas is not begging for money on any side. The line has been set correctly. The RAPS have not been tearing it up lately and Portland has been hot lately with a 9 game winning streak. This line should be Portland -2, that is the fair line factoring in back to back for RAPS and no TJ FORD. THere is nothing funny about this line at all.

I find if you try to figure out Vegas traps you will go broke, as you will talk yourself out of many winners. The line is Portland -2 because "THEY ARE WHO VEGAS THOUGHT THEY WERE". That is the correct line in this game. I do agree that the RAPS will not win in San ANtontio or Phoenix or New Orleans, and they will try harder to win in Seattle and Portland. However their offence is weak and no offence but I think BOSH is one of the most overrated players in the NBA. He gets his points vs the mediocre teams, does he ever show up on the road vs San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, he is a second tier forward behind Duncan KG, AMARE, he falls in love with the outside jumper too much also when he does not drive to the hoop.

Also I don't buy that PORTLAND is soft, they have played well vs BOOZER, ANTHONY and many other stars. I think the RAPS are the soft team. Portland has handled much more aggressive players than BOSH. BOSH went to the line 16 times last night in the process keeping KAMAN in foul trouble, I do not see BOSH heading to the line 16 times tonight, he is not consistent. THat weak Clipper lineup yesterday and a 3 point win, they are in for a much better lineup tonight and should lose.
 
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The wa I figure this one is that Raps are without TJ FORD who is good at creating shots for others. CALDERONE cannot play 48 minutes. RAPS are not shooting the ball well and now play a Hot POrtland team on the road.

I have to take Portland and think the line is not really a factor. I try to give myself the edge and play on percentages. In this case I think the line is -2 because everyone expects Portland to come crashing down and while it is possible they could lose tonight or to any team I think they can beat the RAPS. I am trying not to overanalyze it and go with the trend and the hot team. THe trend is your friend.
I have been following a similar trend in NFL, bet on CINCY and DETROIT on the road, no analysis needed, it just works and puts money in your pocket as those 2 teams are horrendous on the road.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Toronto MIKE Vegas is not begging for money on any side. The line has been set correctly. The RAPS have not been tearing it up lately and Portland has been hot lately with a 9 game winning streak. This line should be Portland -2, that is the fair line factoring in back to back for RAPS and no TJ FORD. THere is nothing funny about this line at all.

I find if you try to figure out Vegas traps you will go broke, as you will talk yourself out of many winners. The line is Portland -2 because "THEY ARE WHO VEGAS THOUGHT THEY WERE". That is the correct line in this game. I do agree that the RAPS will not win in San ANtontio or Phoenix or New Orleans, and they will try harder to win in Seattle and Portland. However their offence is weak and no offence but I think BOSH is one of the most overrated players in the NBA. He gets his points vs the mediocre teams, does he ever show up on the road vs San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, he is a second tier forward behind Duncan KG, AMARE, he falls in love with the outside jumper too much also when he does not drive to the hoop.

Also I don't buy that PORTLAND is soft, they have played well vs BOOZER, ANTHONY and many other stars. I think the RAPS are the soft team. Portland has handled much more aggressive players than BOSH. BOSH went to the line 16 times last night in the process keeping KAMAN in foul trouble, I do not see BOSH heading to the line 16 times tonight, he is not consistent. THat weak Clipper lineup yesterday and a 3 point win, they are in for a much better lineup tonight and should lose.
Click to expand...

Kaman was not guarding Bosh

Portland can either be gaining confidence or getting a little over too confident

Joel Pryzbilla isn't exactly the best defensive threat out there. During their win streak, name me one team they faced that actually plays Defense? When you try and run and gun vs a younger and athletic team like Portland, you are obviously going to lose out.

Watching the Blazers vs Nuggets, they were just hot that nite and barely missed shots. Nuggets thought they could outscore them instead of playing D. Yet the worse rebounding team outrebounded the Nuggets? In the last 10 that was the only game the Blazers have outrebounded any opponents.

Mind you, Brandon Roy is also suffering from a flu. Lets see how he performs tonight. Blazers very may well win, but the cover? I think there's a backdoor in place, considering the line is now +/- 3

The Raps only way to win this is to play defense, and that is something the Blazers have yet faced.

Just like I said earlier, they have been favored at home only 5 teams this season and covered twice, the last one was -3.5 vs Bucks and they won by 4.

Blazers also need to clamp down in the 2H rather than let teams crawl back, because that is how the Raps play. They are a much more competitive team in the 2H. I would play Blazers 1H and Raptors 2H. That's just how i see it.

BOL
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
The wa I figure this one is that Raps are without TJ FORD who is good at creating shots for others. CALDERONE cannot play 48 minutes. RAPS are not shooting the ball well and now play a Hot POrtland team on the road.

I have to take Portland and think the line is not really a factor. I try to give myself the edge and play on percentages. In this case I think the line is -2 because everyone expects Portland to come crashing down and while it is possible they could lose tonight or to any team I think they can beat the RAPS. I am trying not to overanalyze it and go with the trend and the hot team. THe trend is your friend.
I have been following a similar trend in NFL, bet on CINCY and DETROIT on the road, no analysis needed, it just works and puts money in your pocket as those 2 teams are horrendous on the road.
Click to expand...

Not true, take into consideration Raptors b2b. Plus i'm sure a good majority had also expected Portland to lose out vs New Orleans. But considering now Portland is in the driver's seat and money seems to be going to them, i'd like to see how they react.
 
TMIKE I know exactly what you are saying, they win when they are dogs and lose when favored for sure. However its not like they are favored by 6-10 points. And also do you think POrtland's mindset has changed because they know they are favored to win this game by Vegas. I don't think they really care about the spread. Would this game play any different if they were +2.

I do agree with you if they are overconfident or cocky and think they can just show up they will not win. I do not think they think the Raps are pushovers though, do you?

i'd be concerned if they were playing T wolves or Memphis or the Knicks, cause mentally they would think the game is over before it starts.
 
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