PLEASE HELP , would you HEDGE FRANCE futures NOW ???

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
What's up Family???

Please help , not sure if now is the time to hedge the France future ?? Gut feeling is Argentina gets a little help if needed to win the World cup for Messi's legacy ...Right now France runner up is +160 , and Argentina is -125 to win ....



My pending wager is

FRANCE to WIN WORLD CUP +800
$650. 3.25 units
TO WIN $5200. 26 units



Would you hedge on Runner up at +160 ( Thinking maybe $1000-2500 ) , or would you play it safe and take Argentina at the current -125 ? Or would you just let the France future ride for now ????




Many thanks in advance!!!
 
If it were me personally, I'd guarantee max profit and make the France R/U play (assuming you think they get to the final...might even be worth a look at Morocco R/U small as well). Take a look and mess around with this if you'd like, it'll give you some ideas based on your desired level of risk.

Arbitrage Calculator

Our arbitrage calculator lets work out how to guarantee profit in a two-way or three-way market.
www.pinnacle.com www.pinnacle.com
 
If only you could double up on this ...

Betting on the France to runner up is not a hedge because they can lose before the final.

And you cannot couple it with Morocco runner up because they could win the world cup.

Your hedge would have to be a combo of france runner up and morocco to advance today, or something like that which would ensure you don't lose.
 
Isn't the point of the hedge because he is risk averse and wants to lock in money? I hear what you guys are saying but I wouldn't increase my risk when the point is to decrease it, even though I agree that is a tough road for Morocco.

I would likely just keep the bet were it me but it sounds like he wants to lock in profit. shrug.
 
Think that the assumption was that France gets to the final, going into this scenario.

Other question is was the original wager made for the purpose of a future hedge? Think that contributes into the decision making.
 
RetroVK said:
Isn't the point of the hedge because he is risk averse and wants to lock in money? I hear what you guys are saying but I wouldn't increase my risk when the point is to decrease it, even though I agree that is a tough road for Morocco.

I would likely just keep the bet were it me but it sounds like he wants to lock in profit. shrug.
Click to expand...

Agree with this, but also with the others.

If it were me, I would at least put a couple of units (2-4) on Morocco to advance today and go from there. If Morocco wins, he will be locking in a profit most likely. If France wins, he can re-assess and hedge with Argentina in the finals.
 
scarf31 said:
If it were me personally, I'd guarantee max profit and make the France R/U play (assuming you think they get to the final...might even be worth a look at Morocco R/U small as well). Take a look and mess around with this if you'd like, it'll give you some ideas based on your desired level of risk.

Arbitrage Calculator

Our arbitrage calculator lets work out how to guarantee profit in a two-way or three-way market.
www.pinnacle.com www.pinnacle.com
Click to expand...
Withoutthe Futures pending, I likely would have taken France today for five or six units...
Do like your ideas above

The risk is not much of bankroll , but still might bet runner up at +160

Sorry for voice to text

Appreciate your time and response
 
RetroVK said:
If only you could double up on this ...

Betting on the France to runner up is not a hedge because they can lose before the final.

And you cannot couple it with Morocco runner up because they could win the world cup.

Your hedge would have to be a combo of france runner up and morocco to advance today, or something like that which would ensure you don't lose.
Click to expand...
I completely understand the betting France runner up is not a hedge officially yet. But I don't see many scenarios where Morocco wins unless they score two early goals.... the France runner up at probably isn't that smart at plus 160 though

So for crappy voice to text
 
aplous said:
I'd bet Argentina to win the cup for 4-5 units. If Morocco takes out France and Argentina, tip the cap and move on.
Click to expand...
At minus 125 it could really be the best option. Like you're saying if Morocco wins those odds would probably be minus -700 or 800...


Hate to pay any juice bc I'd France wins they'll likely be. A slight chalk ...

Appreciate your time and response ,thank you
 
Adding Morocco runner-up+500

$340/$1700

Hopefully a donation but I've fallen in love with the massive underdog team this tournament... this doesn't look bad to me because they're only plus 310 to advance...would be cool to see an African team make the final..
 
scarf31 said:
Think that the assumption was that France gets to the final, going into this scenario.

Other question is was the original wager made for the purpose of a future hedge? Think that contributes into the decision making.
Click to expand...
I tend to hedge larger futures , but went overboard here on a smaller one




Just weird feeling Argentina wins
 
Thank you to all who posted....
Appreciate your time ,and responses ...
Was running out of time yesterday before leaving work when I Posted this thread ...
 
Last edited:
FRANCE to WIN WORLD CUP +800
$650. 3.25 units
TO WIN $5200.
Profit +$3400

FRANCE RUNNER UP +160
$1460 7.3 units
To WIN $2336.
Profit $1346



Lost-$340 on Morocco runner-up
 
Another
Hedge

Going into penalty shootout

Argentina -110
$990 to win $900

Take the max profit ...No way can I have almost a 2k difference on pks
 
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