Playoffs Round 1 Game 1s

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays:

Saturday
Boston 1st Q -2.5 -115- 3 L
2nd Q Boston -3 -115- 2 L
2nd Q OVER 49.5- 2 L
Boston 1st H -4.5- 2 L
Boston -8.5 -105- 3 L
2nd H Boston -8 +105- 8 L
4th Q IPL Detroit +1.5- 2 L
1st H Dallas +2 +100- 3
1st Q Portland -1.5 -115- 2
Portland -4.5- 5

so far:
0-7
-23.5
:hang:

Sunday

1st H Atlanta -2.5 -105- 3
Atlanta -5 -105- 2

a medium bet is typically 3 for me. I could just call it 1 unit, but this way is much easier for me to report. A smaller play for me will usually be 2, with Q stabs/MLs usually at 1. 4 is a little bigger for me with usually my biggest being 6. I can go to 10, but I doubt I do it in these playoffs unless something special opens up.

time to get into them. Won't play any of the series as I'd prefer to take it game at a time.

Chicago @ Boston
Gonna look for Boston to make a statement so looking at Boston 1st Q, 1st H, Full game. How will the KG news affect Boston? My thinking is this is not news to them that KG needs rest and actually think he comes to play vs orlando, but thats purely speculation. I'm thinking Chicago gets frozen. An already bad road team who may be getting some spotlight because of late season success- which was due to favorable schedule (8 homes games/11 to end season- not a single b2b in there) Its the same old story- jump shooting team rallies in the reg season- gets shut out in the playoffs. If I'm right, and KG is really just resting for more important games, then this should be a statement game for Boston- don't forget they're still the champs until someone takes it. I think Rose chokes in his playoff road debut, and Chicago takes at least a half to adjust to actually having a hand in their face when they take those outside jumpers- playoff basketball. Matchup wise: The head of the Chicago offense should be shut out by the NBA's best PG defender in Rondo. In 3 games against Boston this year, Rose's numbers: 14.3 pts, 4.7 assists, with 42.9% shooting vs his season averages of 16.8, 6.3, 47.5%.
Of every playoff team, Chicago allows the most PPG: 102.5 PPG, 104.7 on the road. Boston is 42-3 SU, 27-18 ATS when they score 100+. Could get more into the fundamental stuff about the game, but biggest things for me is Chicago's youth getting shocked early by the environment and getting off to a slow start adjusting to the reality of playoff basketball, Boston looking to prove a pt, Rondo over Rose, Chicago's recent success being fluked by home games- sell high, Boston with KG out- buy low. Position for position I think Boston holds the edge. Defensively Rondo should hold down Rose, offensively I have no idea who attempts to guard Pierce.
Prediction:
1st Q Boston: 27-22
1st H Boston: 54-45
Final Boston: 104-90
 
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Great writeup SF Capper...With all that said, would you agree the -595 I'm seeing on Greek is a value number? This opened at -800 and KG being down, it drops $200.

Now last year, I know in round one, as the clear cut best team in the NBA, Atlanta pushed them to 7. That still has me worried, but I think a play on the series is strong.
 
thanks guys
Houghton- I actually think the value lies with Chicago. Yes somewhat doesn't make sense, and I do think Boston takes care of this in 5, but still I know that I could be wrong. There is a chance that Chicago just catches fire in a game at Boston and steals one. There's a chance KG's absence doesn't keep Boston mentally strong like champs and their defense weakens. I don't think it will happen, but there is a chance, and I don't like laying such heavy numbers with so many ? in my mind.

another game of interest to me:
New Orleans @ Denver
If you have been paying any attention to the NBA this season you could see that New Orleans has been a dissapointment, esp for the hopes that team had going into this yr. However, I'd argue that most of those problems are due to injury. Since December New Orleans is 17-4 SU with Chandler and Peja starting. wow I do not think this is a normal 2-7 matchup as I wouldn;t say there is a big difference at all between these two teams, just a difference in perception. Denver has gone well above expectations while New Orleans has fallen far short- however, thats not to say that denver is even the better team here, just better than expected. I will be looking to get probably a medium play on New Orleans at the best number I can (hoping for 7) and possibly add at half if its close. Billups is gaining in the years and chris paul should take advantage- not like he did to kidd last yr, but something similar. This is what Posey was signed for: to defend in the playoffs- time for him to earn his paycheck and I think he'll do a decent job of holding Melo to a bit under average. See these teams as equal so getting 6.5 should be valuable
 
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another thing about new orleans is it seems these guys perform when no one expects them to. They really thrive in the underdog role imo. I won't look back to back this, but I do remember that in spots you'd never expect- they perform well. Also not too worried about them on the road as they've proven they can do half decently on the road at times. They've won at LAL- then took them to OT the next time at LA, @ Denver, @ Portland, @ Dallas, and just took SA to OT in SA. Not that they're a good road team ,but they've shown glimpses
 
agree with NO...thinking about taking NO to win serie.

I don't like denver D.

bulls D is also terrible....so celts will advance.
 
Dallas @ San Antonio
This can probably be said about the entire series that taking the underdog wouldnt be too bad of of an idea. Dallas-SA games will always be close and down to the wire making pts valuable and +ML value. I am definitely considering Dallas here. Two ways to look at San Antonio this season
1) they're veterans and have been resting. They still have the killer instinct hence their many 1/3 pt Ws but knowing Duncan's legs they've needed to take it slowly. They still ended up with HCA and are still the Spurs
2) They're washed up. The ginobli injury hurts them as he creates a different gear for them- they can play either SA ball or they can switch it up and go crazy with Manu. Without him it becomes easier to read. Duncan's been getting shit minutes this season and can only manage that. he won't be able to handle 40 minutes of playoff bangin
Which one is it? I'm not quite sure, and I think we find out with Duncan's minutes on Saturday. So what to bet? I think the best option would be Dallas 1st H. If Duncan is to sit a bit, then it'll be in the 1st H. San Antonio's game is to keep it close then finish. I can see Dallas coming out harder and getting stars heavier minutes and get out to a decent lead at halftime only to have Pop do what he does and get SA a 2 pt comeback win. Matchup wise- I HATE kidd trying to guard Parker. Parker averages 22- 6.9 for the season, but 31.3-7.3 against dallas this yr and it is definitely no coincidence. Kidd will always be 2 steps too slow for the quick guards in the league. He still is a great defender- just not for quick guys. He really seems like a SA type guy- knows the game better than probably anyone on the court and knows what will happen 5 seconds before it happens. Hopefully Carlisle knows the mismatch going in and puts Terry in early to at least attempt to get parker to his averages. I think Dallas plays WAY better in the underdog role than with the pressure of being the fav. Have played this so far:
1st H Dallas +2 +100- 3
 
Houston @ Portland
This series is likely going to 7 depending on Game 2. I fully expect Portland to come out and get a W and cover here. Unlike Chicago, Portland's inexperience in playoff basketball won't be too bad at home. The crowd should be insane and I expect Portland to feed off of it from the tipoff in really a blowout. Portland fans have been watching the playoffs from their TVs and finally will be able to come out to support the home team. Matchups aren't great as Houston has the 2 best wing defenders in artest and battier to limit Roy, but I think Portland finds a way to push themselves into a big W from the energy. I can't say much for matchups here as I think Houston has the better team and if anyone has been paying attention all yr is still my black horse team to give LA the most problems in the west, but thats for another writeup. Houston had been money in 1st H's off losses, but lately have only been around even. Best case scenario- Portland blows Houston out and I line up for Houston +5 in game 2. Gonna be on Portland 1st H and full game
 
With the Detroit-Cleveland game and series the line is unplayable for me. -12 in a playoff game vs a savvy and experienced Detroit team is too many. But do I really want to get in Cleveland's way looking to start the playoffs right in what could be sued as a message to the league. I can say a 88-85 Cleveland win or a 98-69 type game. Probably just a pass for me right now. Will look forward to others' thoughts
 
Count me as a believer in the #2 option vis a vis San Antonio. Dallas should be ashamed of themselves if they don't win this series.

I'm not convinced that Houston is good enough to take Portland to 7 games. Wouldn't surprise me a bit to see two solid wins for Portland to start the series. I really think Yao has something to prove in this series. 18-8 ain't gonna do it. He needs to assert himself with some 26-12 games and be the dominant player in the series.

I'm having a hard time figuring out what I think about Denver/NO. Basically I think both teams suck and the winner only gets the prize of being annihilated by LA. Pretty inconsequential series, b/c LA will beat either team in 5 games. I gotta think Chauncey's leadership will be enough to give them a series win though over this garbage NO team. Something is just missing from that NO team. I just can't take them seriously as a playoff threat.

I think Portland might be my favorite side for Saturday night. That crowd will be fucking apeshit, and if Portland gets up 10 or so early on, they might blow the doors off Houston. Portland's crowd will be almost comparable to that GS playoff crowd of a few years ago IMO.
 
Killa said:
Count me as a believer in the #2 option vis a vis San Antonio. Dallas should be ashamed of themselves if they don't win this series.

I'm not convinced that Houston is good enough to take Portland to 7 games. Wouldn't surprise me a bit to see two solid wins for Portland to start the series. I really think Yao has something to prove in this series. 18-8 ain't gonna do it. He needs to assert himself with some 26-12 games and be the dominant player in the series.

I'm having a hard time figuring out what I think about Denver/NO. Basically I think both teams suck and the winner only gets the prize of being annihilated by LA. Pretty inconsequential series, b/c LA will beat either team in 5 games. I gotta think Chauncey's leadership will be enough to give them a series win though over this garbage NO team. Something is just missing from that NO team. I just can't take them seriously as a playoff threat.

I think Portland might be my favorite side for Saturday night. That crowd will be fucking apeshit, and if Portland gets up 10 or so early on, they might blow the doors off Houston. Portland's crowd will be almost comparable to that GS playoff crowd of a few years ago IMO.
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completely agree about the portland crowd. watching when they won HCA on wednesday was the exact feeling I got watching GS clinch HCA over Portland couple years back. I only hope Portland doesn't feel pressured as the favorite and having their biggest crowd. I would assume they rise up and feed off the energy, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them foil under all the expectations

regarding new orleans- they havnt done shit this yr, but again I think a lot of it can be pointed to injuries. I guess we'll see. I agree that Denver isn't shit and is why I don't think them -6.5 against a playoff team with more potential than them is a good bet. Also- the winner of this series plays the winner of SA/Dallas- not LA
 
Oh shit yeah n/m what am I saying, LA has to deal with Portland or Houston next round. An argument could be made that the 3, 4, and 5 seeds are all better than the 2 seed. Western seeding is such a clusterfuck.

No to the Pinny account, can't do it, my account shit over here is all in Korean language, I don't even deal with my checking account here, my Korean-speaking friend does it all for me. I have no clue what my account # is or any of that. I do have some money in a book tho so I can make some plays these playoffs if I want. Seeing how fucking hard it is to win in NBA these days tho doesn't exactly make me wanna jump back in.

Houston is gonna have to play one helluva poised and efficient game to avoid getting overwhelmed and run outta the building by Portland and that crowd. They need to severely limit turnovers and get good shots. And Yao has to assert himself and own the paint. Portland might be an ATS (and ATM) machine at home in these playoffs.
 
the crowd in cleveland will be similiar to portland correct? cavs 1Q seems perfect if it werent for the probable line of 3.5-4 right (just making an assumption since I have not seen it)..
 
biggoob said:
the crowd in cleveland will be similiar to portland correct? cavs 1Q seems perfect if it werent for the probable line of 3.5-4 right (just making an assumption since I have not seen it)..
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I don't think its quite the same with cleveland. they'll have a good crowd no doubt, but to the crowd and to cleveland- what will a game 1 of the 1st rd of the playoffs be to them against detroit? Portland is different in that they havnt been to the playoffs in a bit and the fans will be out of their minds imo
 
looks like I missed out on 1/2 by waiting on Miami and Portland. Will get into the Miami matchup in a bit- basically don't trust a team with a rookie PG, rookie coach.. and pretty much everything about Miami - wade. Moon and Haslem's conditions?
 
SF_capper said:
looks like I missed out on 1/2 by waiting on Miami and Portland. Will get into the Miami matchup in a bit- basically don't trust a team with a rookie PG, rookie coach.. and pretty much everything about Miami - wade. Moon and Haslem's conditions?
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read that Haslem is good to go and they were more or less just resting him down the stretch. Not sure that's even a good thing as Beasley looked like great when given a starting roll.
 
Good luck SF!

See no value what so ever in Portland with the line. Rockets won two of the three meetings (both wins are in Houston), but the loss in Portland came after OT with a crazy three pointer from Roy to win it. I'm confident Houston will win all three games at home, but not sure if they can win one in Portland. I do believe that they will be very very close at least in two games. I took Houston with the line today and if it losses, I will take X1.5 for them in game 2.
Dallas with the line in the game and Dallas to win 4- 2 the series seems like nice bets. Have no idea about the HT, but can easily agree with your thoughts there.
Boston should roll over Bulls, but still, Boston come to the playoffs not in the best condition to say the least and with the early exits that we saw from the champions the last few seasons (I think that Detroit was the last champion that made it to Finals the season after the ring), I wouldn't be too surprised to see Boston struggle in all the rounds and making an early exit already in the second round.
Hope you hit all but Portland ATS :)
 
SF_capper said:
JPicks where u been at?? Who else you got for these games?

also added 1 more on boston 1st Q
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Busy week. Getting ready to head out for a wedding out of state. Never really have a ton of interest in Game 1s either way. That said I've played the Lakers over, and the Heat ML. My Heat love is all about Wade. Give me any of the big 3 (KB, LB, DW) as dogs in a series that doesn't include each other and I'll play it. Stern loves Wade, ABC loves him, the refs love him. I'm as big of a Hawks guy as anybody but when the NBA wants Wade in the 2nd round against Lebron it'll happen. I will say that if the Hawks win this series the Cavs should more than nervous.
 
divol- good to see ya man. After reading around I am starting to worry about Portland. Houston off a loss this yr has been really good which imo is a good indicator for playoff success. I do think this'll be a tight tight series and agree that Houston should win all of the home games, with their shots at the series being game 2/7

JP- agree about Stern wanting a lebron wade 2nd rd matchup.

bleh- lost 1st Q bet. Definitely wrong about this bet. Expected Rose and Del ***** to be intimidated- and was dead wrong. Still can hope for 1st H which is at my more important book
 
these were bets from just watching. Rondo and Rose were just unstoppable the 1st Q and both teams were gettin out and running. It was 28-28 with no 3s- something I fully expect to change by halftime
 
dammit. If I can get Boston at a pk or under at half its gonna be hard to turn down. boston still without a 3 for the top 3 pt shooting team in the league. Ray allen cold as hell. Did not plan to have 20 on risk for the 1st game but fuck it might happen
 
I'm not watching the game, but I can't understand how Bulls backcourt owns Celtics the way they do. Rose and Gordon took all FT of the Bulls and both took more FT than Boston all together.
 
divol said:
I'm not watching the game, but I can't understand how Bulls backcourt owns Celtics the way they do. Rose and Gordon took all FT of the Bulls and both took more FT than Boston all together.
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Its mainly because Rose has played nearly the entire half so far.

Odd thing is CHicago could be up way more if it wasn't for chicago taking some dumb ass shots

rondo is really the only one doing anything for Boston. Pierce been reeally quiete. Not sure If I wnat to take Boston 2nd H. IF they turn it up I think they can take this one easily, but if they play like they did in the 1st H- no shot. Really surprised Pierce isn't attacking
 
ugh.... did not want all this on risk in the 1st game but fuck won't let that affect my betting

Boston with no 3s for the best 3 pt shooting team in the league
Pierce has done nothing yet in a matchup he should have 15 in the 1st H. Not attacking- this is a bet that he will start attacking at halftime- could be wrong, but I don't think I am..
 
2nd H Boston -8 +105- 6

I might've even gone 8 if I didn't lose 4 with that 2nd Q where Boston couldn't hit anything
 
ehh fuck it. Going with 8. not gonna let other bets choose my amt for this one. Everything lines up for this one statistically- just need Boston to show up and do what they do and no reason to expect them not to. I thought they'd want to come out to make a statement, but I was dead wrong
 
allsmiley said:
celts and bulls will be played early in the morning...i see no edge for the favorite team. be careful.
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Santa,
you're on target w/ your capping but u left out an important element...it's an early game, generally favor the dog, esp the 1h. sleep deprevation is the greatest equalizer.
 
You should stop chasing. I've been realizing a lot of your late bets don't make sense when you're down to start the day. You would pick plays for 2 units, but chase it off with 8 units second half?! It's only the first game...
 
Ca$He said:
You should stop chasing. I've been realizing a lot of your late bets don't make sense when you're down to start the day. You would pick plays for 2 units, but chase it off with 8 units second half?! It's only the first game...
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this definitely was not a chase. I mentioned many times that I hate having such a large wager on the 1st game, but like I said I wasn't going to change my bet size just because I was down. It likely would've been 8 regardless of what I had on the game. I have chased in the past in last games, but this definitely was not one
 
ok well was completely wrong on this game. I said Rondo would be able to limit Rose and that he'd be nervous. lol
 
Sorry if you took my post the wrong way, but I just wanted you to manage your bankroll well. There are plenty of good spots throughout this entire season and not all of them cashes. I'm not sure how much you usually play your games for, but I thought it was in a variety range of 2-5 units.
 
Ca$He said:
Sorry if you took my post the wrong way, but I just wanted you to manage your bankroll well. There are plenty of good spots throughout this entire season and not all of them cashes. I'm not sure how much you usually play your games for, but I thought it was in a variety range of 2-5 units.
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dont needa be sorry, good lookin out. Most are from 2-5 but I will go out if I feel its appropriate. Despite it losing I don't feel terrible about it except for the 2nd Q stabs.
 
sorry to anyone I may have influenced wrongly on these games. I hope to get it back, but I guess for now- these are half decent fades
 
relating to the Miami series, a a large number of occasions I and others tried to talk you into betting on Miami in good spots. It never happened. Your objectivity in connection with this team is suspect. The best thing for you to do is just wait for another series.
 
tuck321 said:
relating to the Miami series, a a large number of occasions I and others tried to talk you into betting on Miami in good spots. It never happened. Your objectivity in connection with this team is suspect. The best thing for you to do is just wait for another series.
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? I can't recall, but I'll look back and double check. I don't think I especially dislike them. If I remember right they are 2-11 vs the eastern playoff teams on the road. I don't plan to bet the series, and if Atlanta wins here, I'll probably play Miami ml game 2, but I think the Atlanta crowd will be the xfactor. I'm having more in the 1st half as I think it could easily be a wade heroic 4th q. I'm not at my computer, but outside of wade I don't see what favors Miami. Jpicks said he's banking on wade calls and I agree we'll probably see them, but not in game 1 imo. Then again I could be dead wrong like I was about the c's. But I don't think Atlanta is greater than Miami, and during this series we get Miami facing elimination, I probably will bet them. Gl tuck
 
Stick with what you do and you'll be fine...

I almost pulled trigger with C's today as well. Glad I just decided to watch and wait...
 
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