COLTS: When these teams first met, Houston won 37-34 in OT. The Colts’ D was young and injury-ridden. Players often changed roles. As a result, Indy gave up over 30 points in four of their first six games. Since then, the Colts’ D has gelled and hasn't given up over 28 points. Luck threw for 399 yards in both games, including Indy’s 24-21 win in Houston. He will lead Indy past Houston's low-ranked pass D.
COWBOYS: Both teams are run-first, ranking top-five in run-play percentage. So this comes down to who will run better. While both o-lines rank similarly in run blocking, Dallas has the better rush attack, led by Zeke’s 5.1 YPC. Dallas also has the better run defense. It ranks second, allowing 3.7 YPC. Conversely, Seattle’s ranks last, allowing five YPC. Home field is also huge. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS at home.
RAVENS: While I appreciate skepticism against an inexperienced quarterback, Baltimore is run-first. L.A. has zero interior defenders who rank top-30. When the teams met in L.A., the Ravens ran 35 times and still averaged 4.5 YPC. I don’t see this changing in Baltimore. Baltimore’s pass defense is top-ranked and will limit Rivers. It boasts three high-ranked interior defenders who thrive against the run.
EAGLES: The Bears will struggle on offense with its often inaccurate quarterback who has zero playoff experience. The Eagles’ pass defense has bad season stats, but eventually got used to the injuries in its secondary. Philly’s defensive coordinator is awesome and is creative in pressuring the quarterback while trusting his corners. Philly has limited offenses led by frequently inconsistent quarterbacks like the Rams.
COWBOYS:
These teams met in Week 3, with Seattle winning at home 24-13, covering as one-point favorite. A lot has changed since then. Dallas has acquired receiver Amari Cooper. In Prescott’s first two months without Cooper, his passer rating and yardage total were significantly lower than in November and December with Cooper.
Seattle’s defense is injury-ridden. It misses safety Earl Thomas, for example, who had two picks in Week 3. Its pass defense ranks 15th overall and 28th against number-one receivers, meaning that Cooper should have a big day. Even more importantly, Seattle ranks dead-last in opposing YPC. Dallas runs with the fifth-highest frequency, led by Zeke Elliot’s 5.1 YPC. Dallas will run and pass all over the Seahawks, especially at home, where it averages 25 points per game and Seattle’s legendary 12th man is absent.
On the flip side, Dallas has the second-best run defense in terms of YPC. Help has come from linebacker Sean Lee, who is healthy and played in Week 17, although the Cowboys developed depth at the position. Dallas therefore matches up well with Seattle’s offense, that ranks first in run-play frequency.
RAVENS:
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has faced two top-five pass defenses three times. L.A. lost at home to Denver 23-22 thanks in part to Rivers throwing a season-high two picks. L.A. faced Baltimore at home, where Rivers produced a season-low 51.7 passer rating. L.A. scored only 10 points and lost. The Chargers rematched Denver and mustered 14 offensive points. Rivers managed 176 yards and a 60.4 passer rating. Baltimore’s pass defense ranks third in DVOA. It enjoys solid depth and quality in its secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle. Its run defense is highly-ranked. L.A. won’t do much on offense.
L.A. also has a great secondary. The problem is that Baltimore is run-first with the shifty Lamar Jackson at quarterback and a duo of running backs in Kenneth Dixon and Gus Edwards who average at least 4.5 YPC. Baltimore has an extremely physical offensive line that ranks both top-five in short-yardage situations and stuff rate, meaning that it will help the Ravens sustain drives. L.A. possesses zero top-30 interior defenders and will do little to stop the Ravens from running over them.
COWBOYS: Both teams are run-first, ranking top-five in run-play percentage. So this comes down to who will run better. While both o-lines rank similarly in run blocking, Dallas has the better rush attack, led by Zeke’s 5.1 YPC. Dallas also has the better run defense. It ranks second, allowing 3.7 YPC. Conversely, Seattle’s ranks last, allowing five YPC. Home field is also huge. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS at home.
RAVENS: While I appreciate skepticism against an inexperienced quarterback, Baltimore is run-first. L.A. has zero interior defenders who rank top-30. When the teams met in L.A., the Ravens ran 35 times and still averaged 4.5 YPC. I don’t see this changing in Baltimore. Baltimore’s pass defense is top-ranked and will limit Rivers. It boasts three high-ranked interior defenders who thrive against the run.
EAGLES: The Bears will struggle on offense with its often inaccurate quarterback who has zero playoff experience. The Eagles’ pass defense has bad season stats, but eventually got used to the injuries in its secondary. Philly’s defensive coordinator is awesome and is creative in pressuring the quarterback while trusting his corners. Philly has limited offenses led by frequently inconsistent quarterbacks like the Rams.
COWBOYS:
These teams met in Week 3, with Seattle winning at home 24-13, covering as one-point favorite. A lot has changed since then. Dallas has acquired receiver Amari Cooper. In Prescott’s first two months without Cooper, his passer rating and yardage total were significantly lower than in November and December with Cooper.
Seattle’s defense is injury-ridden. It misses safety Earl Thomas, for example, who had two picks in Week 3. Its pass defense ranks 15th overall and 28th against number-one receivers, meaning that Cooper should have a big day. Even more importantly, Seattle ranks dead-last in opposing YPC. Dallas runs with the fifth-highest frequency, led by Zeke Elliot’s 5.1 YPC. Dallas will run and pass all over the Seahawks, especially at home, where it averages 25 points per game and Seattle’s legendary 12th man is absent.
On the flip side, Dallas has the second-best run defense in terms of YPC. Help has come from linebacker Sean Lee, who is healthy and played in Week 17, although the Cowboys developed depth at the position. Dallas therefore matches up well with Seattle’s offense, that ranks first in run-play frequency.
RAVENS:
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has faced two top-five pass defenses three times. L.A. lost at home to Denver 23-22 thanks in part to Rivers throwing a season-high two picks. L.A. faced Baltimore at home, where Rivers produced a season-low 51.7 passer rating. L.A. scored only 10 points and lost. The Chargers rematched Denver and mustered 14 offensive points. Rivers managed 176 yards and a 60.4 passer rating. Baltimore’s pass defense ranks third in DVOA. It enjoys solid depth and quality in its secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle. Its run defense is highly-ranked. L.A. won’t do much on offense.
L.A. also has a great secondary. The problem is that Baltimore is run-first with the shifty Lamar Jackson at quarterback and a duo of running backs in Kenneth Dixon and Gus Edwards who average at least 4.5 YPC. Baltimore has an extremely physical offensive line that ranks both top-five in short-yardage situations and stuff rate, meaning that it will help the Ravens sustain drives. L.A. possesses zero top-30 interior defenders and will do little to stop the Ravens from running over them.
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