Playoffs and Bowls

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Let's fuk'n go
  • 109 Baylor/Oklahoma Over 66 -102
  • 110 Oklahoma -9½ -105
  • 117 Georgia +7 -110
  • 119 Wisconsin +15½ -108
  • 121 Virginia +28½ -101
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2019-2020 BOWL SEASON BEGINS
  • 201 Buffalo U 1st Half -3½ -105
  • 204 Utah State -6½ -110
Bahama Bowl: First ever meeting between these two teams (and first ever bowl game for Charlotte). Buffalo is currently 0-3 in bowl games with last years loss coming in a choking fashion in the 4Q so I could see them coming out with a little more intensity than Charlotte. BUF has led after the first half 9 consecutive games (on the season they have trailed in the first half only twice) by an average margin of 13pts/1H and the last 5 1H victories have been at an average of 17pts. Charlotte on the other hand, has been outscored 6/8 of their last games (7/9 if you want to count Clemson and also inflate the avg margin) by an average of 2.6pts/1H (6.2pts/1H including Clemson). Could be a high scoring half but I'll have to back Buffalo -3.5 here.
Frisco Bowl: Kent absolutely blows and they have the 127th ranked rush D out of 130 DIV1 teams. Jordan Love, who will enter 2020 NFL draft is the USU QB and needs a good showing to further his NFL stock. Him and Gerold Bright were caught with some weed, but theywere ticketed and still eligible here. Bright had a solid year running the ball at 5.2 ypc and should have a big day...further opening up passing options for Love. Really I could this by 2 TD easy.


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Saturday...
  • 216 Boise State +4 -110
  • 217 UAB/Appalachian State Over 47½ -110
  • 218 Appalachian State -17 -119
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  • Boise State +4 ...if the Huskies team that showed up for Colorado and Stanford comes out today, the Huskies will get crushed despite the talent advantage. No Trey Adams or Hunter Bryant is going to hurt, the UW receivers have been terrible, and Boise has a lot of weapons to take advantage of a defense that was good but not elite this year.
  • Appy State -17 and over 47½ - Respect to Bill Clark for getting UAB to this point but they have been absolutely destroyed by any good competition this year, the Blazers already can't pass the ball at all and the QB might not play. Appy has so many weapons both passing and running the ball, even if UAB's defense is decent I think the Mountaineers easily get near 40 here. App State defense is much improved over the past few weeks but I'm just hoping UAB can score at least 10 points to hit this low total.
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[117-107 +4.14U]
  • 221 BYU/Hawaii 1st Quarter Over 14 -115
  • 221 BYU -125
Only game in town, air raid starts fast but also terrible defense and risky offense. Game total pretty high so I'll roll with 1Q. Mormons likely should be favored 4-5 here and will probably win by a TD or so.

Last 7 years following conf game HI only wins 32.7%, covers 34% but does go over 66%
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[118-108 +4.01u]
Bowls 4-4
  • 223 Miami Florida 1st Half -3½ -115
Taking the better D here in Miami. Miami is ranked 11th in the FBS for total D and 14th for rushing yards by opponents and 24th for opponent completion percentage. More importantly, they get to the QB alot, averaging 3.7 sacks per game (4th). Expecting to see a low scoring game w/ Miami prevailing. Seen this 1H at -3 yesterday and wish I would have hit it then. Will be watching total and may play under if it goes back over 50...definitely will play at U51.
Miami is 12-7 63% ATS in non conference games as 4 or more chalk last 7 years(13-6 1H ATS)
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Canes miserable inept offense let me down yesterday, but today looks very promising...
  • 227 North Carolina/Temple 1st Quarter Over 10½ -120
  • 227 North Carolina/Temple Over 54 -102
  • 232 Texas A&M -5½ -105
  • 233 USC +2½ -105
  • 233 USC +120
  • 233 USC/Iowa Over 52½ -105
UNC/TEMP both play with pace. UNC ranked 7th (right behind UCF and we saw what they were capable of) and Temple at 26th. I could see UNC striking first and Temple trying to answer. Expect this one balls hard from the getgo.
Trojan receiver corp is was too fast and deep for Hawkeyes to keep up. This may be biggest gift of the season.
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Crappy 2-4 posted here yesterday, but thankfully I hit a few others to stay near even on the day.
  • 237 Iowa State +3½ -110
  • 239 Memphis/Penn State Under 60 -105
  • 243 Clemson -2½ -110
  • 243 Clemson/Ohio State Under 62½ -105
Iowa State +3.5 - Cyclones played six one-possession games and were so close against Oklahoma/Baylor, this offense finished the year at 6.6 yards per play with an excellent quarterback who looks like he's only getting better in Brock Purdy and I don't really think Ian Book can generate as many big plays. Expect Matt Campbell to have his team ready to pick up a big name win or at least get within a field goal as they always seem to play up in big games.
Clemson -2.5 and under 62.5 - This is some high-level here and I think you just have to go with your gut sometimes... I've been pretty set on picking Clemson as the national champion for a few weeks now. Just little things like having a coaching staff/QB who has done this before and Fields even losing a bit of mobility due to injury can make a difference here. Plenty of valid reasons to pick Ohio State though. As for the total, both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball but imo the defenses are a bit ahead of the offenses, maybe even the two best defenses in the nation.
 
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Monday
  • 245 Western Michigan/Western Kentucky Under 54½ -108
  • 249 Illinois/California Over 44 -105
  • 252 Florida -14 -120
  • 251 Virginia/Florida Over 55 -108
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3-1 yesterday don't suck
  • 256 Arizona State -3 -110
  • 291 Kentucky +2½ -105
Kentucky +2½ -105 - UK’s running game is ranked 4th in the nation, led by receiver turned quarterback Lynn Bowden. He has 1,235 rushing yards in his 151 attempts and 11 touchdowns to go along with it. Virginia Tech is ranked 28th in rushing defense and in their last game of the regular season, they allowed Virginia QB to rush the ball 19 times for 164 yards and 2 TDs while also throwing the ball for over 300 yards and another touchdown. The Cats don't throw the ball very often, making their offense extremely one-dimensional as they rely heavily on their rushing attack, and VT has most likely game planned for this and are prepared, but Lynn Bowden has been an extremely versatile and dangerous weapon for the Kentucky offense. This game may be close but I'll back the best player on the field...Lynn Bowden putting Kentucky on his back to win the Belk Bowl.

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[127-116 +4.72u]
...not very noteworthy 13-12 this bowl season, but I did get 2 right yesterday, so let's continue
  • 264 Alabama -7½ -105
  • 265 Minnesota U +7 -105
  • 267 Wisconsin/Oregon Over 51½ -105
  • 268 Oregon +3 -110
Alabama - - I think Michigan played better over the second half of the year than it got credit for (except against Ohio State, but that's a given), but I gotta go Bama here with most of the important pieces on the Crimson Tide suiting up. Mac Jones made some crucial mistakes in the Iron Bowl but those 15 extra practices with the first string might help him settle down a bit, and anybody could be productive with this WR group. I keep thinking back to that 2011 Capital One Bowl where a supposedly unmotivated and disappointing Bama team banished a top 10 Michigan State team to the shadow realm and just don't think a Saban team will have a letdown.
Baylor +5 and under 41 I'm easily envisioning a 20-17 scoreline here. Georgia has a huge number of players out and a few more that could play but be limited, and their offense was extremely slow and methodical anyway. I'm not sure how effective Charlie Brewer is going to be at this point as the concussions seem to be really hurting him, Zeno of course almost pulled off the incredible comeback vs Oklahoma and might play some here but I'm going to need to see more than five passes against the Oklahoma defense to trust him much. Baylor's defense finished the year at No. 16 while UGA was No. 2 and the Bulldogs have enough talented depth to adequately replace those who are out so this looks like it's gonna be a low scoring slugfest. Gonna wait till later before playing this night tilt...but very likely on both plays

 
Guess I'm gonna have to play early overs
  • 263 Michigan/Alabama Over 60½ -105
  • 265 Minnesota U/Auburn Over 54½ -102
since when SEC meet B10 on New Years day over last 10 years...it went over the total 85.7%
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5-1 yesterday / 10-2 last 3 days
18-13 for the bowl season
  • 271 Boston College/Cincinnati U Under 53½ -107
  • 293 Tennessee U -3 -115
  • 293 Tennessee U/Indiana Under 54½ -105
SEC is 29-11 SU and 24-15-1 ATS in bowl games after Jan1 including 6 straight and 9 of L10 both SU & ATS

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lets get some

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