Playoffs ~ 2022

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [1-1 -2u]
2021 - [167-168 -10.51u]
Parlays [1-2-1 +5.05u]

SATURDAY:

• 6/5.88 Raiders +6 -102
• 3/6.45 Raiders +215
• 3.30/3 1H, Raiders / Bengals OVER 24 -110

randoms...

• RAIDERS ...Burrow excels against man coverage and LV run more zone than anyone in the NFL. Also Burrow shreds the blitz at 10.8 yards per attempt & 9.2% TD rate. When not blitzed his numbers fall to only 8.3 YPA and 5.8% TDs...and yes you guessed it, the Raiders are one of the top 5 least blitzing teams. In their first game Burrow only passed for 148 yds with 5.1 YPA...both season lows. Cincy has issues at RT on the o-line where Isaih Prince starts and has been a disaster since taking over for Riley Rieff (IR), plus LV DE Maxx Crosby will line up across from him and he led the league in QB hurries. So although CIN is the better team, this is potentially the toughest matchup for them.

ROAD DOGS of 5 or less are 60% ATS 12-8-2 over last 7 years​

 

[B.A.R.]

This line starting to get a bit wild.

 

[mrpickem]

Nightcap...

• 5/4.76 Patriots +5 -105
• 2.1/4.1 Patriots +195
• 4/3.74 PATS / BILLS UNDER 43 -107

3.6/9.5 Parlay: Patriots +5 ,Patriots / Bills UNDER 43 ​

 

[mrpickem]

Well shit, what a way to start the playoffs. No where to go but up!

NFL
LAST - [1-5 -17.1u]
PLAYOFS - [1-5 -17.1u]
SEASON - [168-173 -27.61u]
Parlays [1-3-1 +1.45u]

SUNDAY:

• 5/4.81 EAGLES +7½ -104
• 5/4.50 1H EAGLES / BUCS OVER 23 -111
• 5.50/5 Cowboys -3 -110
• 5.25/5 49ers / Cowboys UNDER 51 -105
• 5.10/5 CHIEFS -12-102
• 5.25/5 Steelers / Chiefs OVER 46 -105

randoms...

• Cowboys-49ers Under 51 ...It’s not surprising to see 52% of the action and 88% of the money pouring in on the over. Both teams have elite playmakers on offense, and one could see this game turning into a shootout. However, SF is great at sustaining clock-killing drives with their run game and high-percentage throws. And while the Boys are 2nd in DVOA against the pass, they’re only avg (16th) against the run, so look for the 49ers to provide a heavy dose of Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel. Not only will the 49ers help fuel the under with long drives, but that could throw off the timing of the Cowboy offense, which loves to play up-tempo. Now if DAL jumps ahead 2 TD's early and forces the Niners to throw, the under is likely fucked. With 51 being a key number, I was hoping to see 51½ and may add a little if/when it goes there.

 

[mrpickem]

NFL
LAST - [3-3 -0.5u]
PLAYOFS - [4-8 -17.6u]

MONDAY:

• 5/4.50 Cardinals +3½ -111
• 3.75/6 Cardinals +160
• 5.40/5 Cardinals / Los Angeles Rams UNDER 49 -108
• 2.90/4 1H, Cardinals +160
• 3/2.86 1H, Cardinals / Los Angeles Rams UNDER 49 -108

randoms...
This is the first Monday night playoff game in history and it shapes up to be interesting matchup. I'm not a big fan of the Cards midget QB but Not Stafford either and he's nursing a toe injury that likely limits his mobility. They split this season and even when Rams won 30-23 in Arizona on 12/13, the Cards still tallied 450 total yards. This has a lot of hunch played in as I've concluded there's no really prudent way to cap these NFL playoff games, I just believe Stafford will figure a way to gag and cost LA the win.

TRENDS
• ARIZONA 8-1 ATS on ROAD - with Head coach - KINGSBURY
• LA RAMS 1-4 ATS @HOME - vs limited mistake offenses avg < 1.5 turnovers per game
• ARIZONA is 8-2 UNDER in L10 on Monday
•ARIZONA 6-0 ATS ) as a dog this season
•ARIZONA 8-1 ATS in road games this season
•LA RAMS 80-112 ATS vs teams with a winning record since 1992

 

[mrpickem]

add

5/19.34 Parlay: Cardinals +155 ,Cardinals / Los Angeles Rams UNDER 49 -110​

 

[mrpickem]

NFL
LAST - [2-3 -3.79u]
PLAYOFS - [6-11 -21.39u]
SEASON - [171-176 -28.11u]
Parlays [1-4-1 -3.55u]

SATURDAY:

• 5/4.76 Bengals +4 -105
• 5/4.76 49ers / Packers UNDER 47½ -105
• 5/4.85 Packers -5½ -103

5.55/24.92 PARLAY: BENGALS +4 -104 ,PACKERS UNDER 47 -102 ,PACKERS -242​

​

 

[mrpickem]

NFL
LAST - [2-1 +4.52u]
PLAYOFS - [8-12 -16.81u]
SEASON - [173-177 -23.63u]
Parlays [1-5-1 -9.1u]

SUNDAY:

• 6/6.06 Buccaneers -3 +101
• 5/4.76 Bills / Chiefs UNDER 54 -105
• 6/5.08 Chiefs -118

4.9/14.15 PARLAY BUCCANEERS -3 +101,BILLS / CHIEFS UNDER 54½ -107​

randoms...

​

• TAMPA BAY 13-4 ATS @HOME L2 SEASONS​

• TAMPA BAY 8-2 ATS (L10) @HOME AS FAV​

• LA RAMS 20-40 ATS (L60) AWAY vs decent teams outscoring opponents > 3.0 PPG​

• TAMPA BAY 12-3 UNDER (L15) @HOME w/on streak of 3 or more wins​

​

• ROAD TEAMS 9-3 ATS (L12) in BUF-KC h2h series​

 

[mrpickem]

NFL
LAST - [1-2 -5.92u]
PLAYOFS - [9-14 -22.73u]
SEASON - [174-179 -29.55u]
Parlays [1-6-1 -14u]


SUNDAY:

• 4.90/5 Bengals +7 +102
• 3.81/4 1H Bengals +4 +105
• 5.25/5 Bengals / Chiefs UNDER 54½ -105
• 4/2.96 1H Bengals / Chiefs UNDER 28 -135
• 5.40/5 49ers +3½ -108
• 4/3.33 1H 49ers +3 -120
• 5.15/5 49ers / Rams UNDER 45½ -103

randoms...
• Favorites of 7 or more are 6-11 ATS in Conference Championship L20 years

 

[mrpickem]

NFL
LAST - [2-1 +4.52u]
PLAYOFS - [8-12 -16.81u]
SEASON - [173-177 -23.63u]
Parlays [1-5-1 -9.1u]

SUPER SUNDAY:

• 6/5.71 RAMS -4 -105
• 5/4.76 BENGALS / RAMS UNDER 48½ -105

5/13.2 Parlay: Rams -4 -110 ,Rams / Bengals UNDER 48½ -110 ​

3/8.44 PARLAY: RAMS o48½-105 ,BENGALS +4½ -105​

randoms...

• RAMS -4 -105 ...I love what the Bengals have done...it was certainly a special season...but they have not faced a defense this good all season. The fact is they have played the easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses. Even vs weaker D's Burrow has been pressured on 36% of pass attempts and that number will likely be even higher today. While Burrow is deadly vs man coverage -- 15 TDs, 5 INTs, 10.9 yards per attempt on 145 dropbacks -- he's merely solid versus zone schemes: 12 TDs, 9 INTs, 8.5 ypa on 417 dropbacks. The Rams play zone 78 percent of the time, 2nd-most in the NFL. Because they often use a 5-man front, the Rams can be vulnerable to short passes over the middle. But Cincy could be without tight end C.J. Uzomah (knee), replaced by the far-less dynamic Drew Sample. Super Bowl winners are 47-6-2 ats so unlikely LA wins without covering.

Played a few props for 20ea

Joe Burrow under 280.5​

Sony Michel over 20.5​

Cooper Kupp under 108.5​

Ja'Marr Chase over 80.5​