PLAYOFFS 🔥

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
5/5.00 GB +10' +100
5/4.95 GB o37 -101
4/3.85 IND +11 -103
5/4.76 IND o39 -105
4/3.70 NE -11' -108
4/3.81 KAN -4' -105
4/3.85 KAN o36 -103
5/5.00 DET +3' +100
3/2.63 DET o50 -114
3/2.80 BUF -7' -107
4/3.92 NYJ o37 -102
3/2.86 CIN -7' -105
5/4.76 NYG +3' -105
3/2.86 NYG u49' -105
4/3.81 PHI -4 -105
4/3.81 WAS o38' -105
5/4.76 NO +3' -105
4/4.08 ARI +13' +102
4/3.88 ARI o47' -103
3/2.73 LAC +14' -110
3/2.86 LAC o37' -105
5/4.76 TEN +13' -105
6/5.26 PIT +4 -114
3/2.86 BAL o40' -105
4/5.40 TEAS.(NO +10' & u50', PIT +10') 7-Pt
4/5.24 TEAS.(BUF -1, PIT +10' & o33') 7-Pt
4/7.20 TEAS.(MIN PK, NO +13', ATL u53'. DET o40', BAL o30') 10-Pt

WEEK 18 [17-16 +4.91u]
LAST [14-13 +10.00u]

PLOYOFFS - WILD CARD WEEK​

SATURDAY

• 5/4.90 CAR +10 -102
• 7/6.67 LAR o44' -105
• 4/3.70 CHI +2' -108
• 3/3.54 CHI +118
• 7/6.48 GB o45 -108
• 5/3.33 TEAS.(CAR +17' & o37') 7'-Pt
• 5/4.17 TEAS.(LAR o35. CHI +11' & o35') 10-Pt

randoms...

PLAYOFF DOGS 8-5 61.5% LAST YEAR (50-37 57.5% LAST 7 YEARS)​

TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFFS PREV_YEAR VS TEAMS THAT WERE 18-12 60% ATS L7 YEARS​

HOME DOGS IN PLAYOFFS 9-2 ATS(8-3 SU) LAST 10 YEARS (3-0 LAST YEAR)​

ROAD PLAYOFFS TEAMS VS NON DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS 4-12 ATS L10 YEARS​

TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR VS TEAS THAT WERE: 18-12 60% ATS (2-2 LAST YEAR)​

PLAYOFF DOGS 13-7 ATS AFTER WINNING LAST 2 VS OPP​

ROAD PLAYOFFS TEAMS 13-7 65% ATS IN WILD CARD ROUND AFTER A ATS/SU WIN L10 YEARS(0-2 LAST YEAR)​

FOR THE 2025 REGULAR SEASON (272 GAMES)​

• DOGS SU 95-176-1 35.1%
• DOGS ATS 142-127-3 52.8%
• TOTALS 143-129 52.6%

​

PLAYOFFS LAST 10 YEARS:​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

FINAL MODEL RANKINGS
PANTHERS #20 AND CHARGERS #21...PARITY PERSONIFIED

 

[mrpickem]

PLOYOFFS - WILD CARD WEEK​

SATURDAY
5/4.90 CAR +10 -102
7/6.67 LAR o44' -105
4/3.70 CHI +2' -108
3/3.54 CHI +118
7/6.48 GB o45 -108
5/3.33 TEAS.(CAR +17' & o37') 7'-Pt
5/4.17 TEAS.(LAR o35. CHI +11' & o35') 10-Pt

PLAYOFFS: [7-0 +32.79u]
LAST DAY: [7-0 +32.79u]

It don't get no better than yesterday.

SUNDAY

• 6/5.31 JAX -113
• 4/3.64 JAX u51' -110
• 9/8.11 SF +6' -111
• 5/4.76 SF o44 -105
• 7/5.51 NE -3 -127
• 5/6.25 TEAS.(JAX +8' & u51', SF +16, NE +6') 10-Pt
• 5/3.85 TEAS.(NE +3' & u53) 7-Pt
• 3.60/3 TEAS.(JAX +5 & u57')6'-Pt

​

randoms...

• PLAYOFF DOGS 10-5 66.7% SINCE LAST YEAR (52-37 58.4% LAST 7 YEARS)
• TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFFS PREV_YEAR VS TEAMS THAT WERE 18-12 60% ATS L7 YEARS
• HOME DOGS IN PLAYOFFS 11-2 ATS(10-3 SU) LAST 10 YEARS (5-0 SINCE LAST YEAR)
• ROAD PLAYOFFS TEAMS VS NON-DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS 4-13 ATS L10 YEARS
• TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR VS TEAMS THAT WERE(JAX,SF): 19-12 61.3% ATS (3-2 SINCE LAST YEAR)
• PLAYOFF DOGS 13-7 ATS AFTER WINNING LAST 2 VS OPP (CHARGERS)
• PLAYOFF FAVS OF -3 TO -9 (PHI, NE) ARE 23-30 43.4% ATS (4-8 2024-26)
• PLAYOFFS ROADIES 13-8 61.9% ATS IN WILD CARD ROUND AFTER A ATS/SU WIN (BUF) L10 YEARS(0-3 SINCE LAST YEAR)
• PLAYOFFS ROADIES 6-16 27.3% ATS IN WILD CARD ROUND AFTER LOSS (SF, LAC) L10 YEARS(0-4 SINCE LAST YEAR)
• DOGS 33-25 56.9% ATS @NIGHT IN 2025 (LAC)
• PLAYOFF HOMERS w/line<=10 & total < 52 34-21 61.8% ATS(NE, PHI, JAX) LAST 7 YEARS(9-3 SINCE LAST YEAR)
• HOME DOGS OVER 7 WITH TOTAL <=45 ARE NOW 11-1 ATS THIS YEAR AFTER CAR WIN

MODEL WON WITH BOTH HOME DOGS YESTERDAY, BUT TODAY IT LIKES SF & NE

 

[C-MAN]

Nailed it yesterday!

 

[slim5150]

Im on same sides today, although bought sf up to 7. Nice sweep yesterday!

LFG JAGS!

 

[Vapster]

Great Saturday @mrpickem

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
6/5.31 JAX -113
4/3.64 JAX u51' -110
9/8.11 SF +6' -111
5/4.76 SF o44 -105
7/5.51 NE -3 -127
5/6.25 TEAS.(JAX +8' & u51', SF +16, NE +6') 10-Pt
5/3.85 TEAS.(NE +3' & u53) 7-Pt
3.60/3 TEAS.(JAX +5 & u57')6'-Pt

PLAYOFFS:[13-2 +52.15u]
LAST DAY: [6-2 +19.36u]

MONDAY

• 8/7.41 PIT u38' -108
• 5/3.85 TEAS.(PIT +10 & u45') 7-Pt

randoms...

• PLAYOFF DOGS 4-1 THIS YEAR, 8-5 LAST YEAR AND (54-38 58.7% LAST 7+ YEARS)
• HOME DOGS IN PLAYOFFS 11-2 ATS(9-4 SU) L10 YEARS (5-0 ATS SINCE LAST YEAR)

 

[Loves2kickass]

Solid

 

[mrpickem]

PLOYOFFS​

SATURDAY
5/4.90 CAR +10 -102
7/6.67 LAR o44' -105
4/3.70 CHI +2' -108
3/3.54 CHI +118
7/6.48 GB o45 -108
5/3.33 TEAS.(CAR +17' & o37') 7'-Pt
5/4.17 TEAS.(LAR o35. CHI +11' & o35') 10-Pt

SUNDAY
6/5.31 JAX -113
4/3.64 JAX u51' -110
9/8.11 SF +6' -111
5/4.76 SF o44 -105
7/5.51 NE -3 -127
5/6.25 TEAS.(JAX +8' & u51', SF +16, NE +6') 10-Pt
5/3.85 TEAS.(NE +3' & u53) 7-Pt
3.60/3 TEAS.(JAX +5 & u57')6'-Pt

MONDAY
8/7.41 PIT u38' -108
5/3.85 TEAS.(PIT +10 & u45') 7-Pt

PLAYOFFS:[14-3 +54.56u]
LAST DAY: [1-1 +2.41u]

Last weekend went great, I may as well continue...

SATURDAY

• 5/4.81 BUF +1' -104
• 5/5.20 BUF o46 +104
• 7/7.00 SF +7 +100
• 5/4.76 SEA u44' -105
• 5/3.70 TEAS.(BUF +8 & o38') 7-Pt
• 4/3.20 TEAS.(SEA PK & u50') 6'-Pt
• 4/5.00 TEAS.(BUF +11 & o35', SEA +3 & OPEN SPOT) 10-Pt

randoms...

• PLAYOFF DOGS 4-2 THIS YEAR, 8-5 LAST YEAR AND (66-49 57.4% LAST 10+ YEARS)
• 18-9 66.7% ATS - TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR VS TEAMS THAT WERE OVER LAST 5 YEARS
• HOME FAV OF 3 TO 9: 28-36 43.8% IN PLAYOFFS L10+ YEARS (1-1 THIS YEAR)
• HOME DOGS IN PLAYOFFS 11-3 78.6 ATS L10+ YEARS (7-1 L8)
• HOME TEAMS 11-7 61.1% ATS IN DIV ROUND OFF BYE L10+ YEARS (0-1 LAST YEAR)
• DOGS 33-27 55% ATS @NIGHT IN 2025
• PLAYOFF HOMERS w/line<=10 & total < 52 35-25 58.3% ATS L7+ YEARS (11-6 SINCE LAST YEAR)
• 

 

[TreyDawg]

Hell of a wildcard round! GL this weekend

 

[Tito]

wow, nice work on the WC! gl this weekend

 

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY
5/4.81 BUF +1' -104
5/5.20 BUF o46 +104
7/7.00 SF +7 +100
5/4.76 SEA u44' -105
5/3.70 TEAS.(BUF +8 & o38') 7-Pt
4/3.20 TEAS.(SEA PK & u50') 6'-Pt
4/5.00 TEAS.(BUF +11 & o35', SEA +3 & OPEN SPOT) 10-Pt

PLAYOFFS:[17-6 +49.66u]
LAST DAY: [3-3 -4.90u]

SUNDAY

• 8/6.96 HOU +3' -115
• 5/4.55 NE u41 -110
• 7/6.80 CHI +4 -103
• 8/7.62 CHI u49 -105
• 5/6.00 TEAS.(HOU +10, CHI +11 & u56') 7-Pt
• 4/5.40 TEAS.(NE +3' & u48, CHI +10') 7-Pt
• 2.24/2 Luther Burden Receiving Yards O38' -112

..and leftover teaser w/one open spot

• 4/5.00 TEAS.(BUF +11 & o35', SEA +3, NE u51) 10-Pt

​

randoms...

• 18-9 66.7% ATS - TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR VS TEAMS THAT WERE OVER LAST 5 YEARS (NE, CHI)
• ROAD DOGS CATCHING 3 IN THE PLAYOFFS ARE 8-2 80% OVER L10 YEARS (HOU)
• HOME DOGS IN PLAYOFFS 11-3 78.6 ATS L10+ YEARS (7-1 L8) (CHI)
• PLAYOFF HOMERS 40-22 59.7% ATS w/line<=10 & total < 52 OVER L7 YEARS

 

[mrpickem]

Coming into the weekend, the Bear were lowest rated team in my model while the Rams were #1. I honestly question my own sanity with one of my larger plays today on the Bears, but they've just been able to raise the bar just enough each and every week necessary. Caleb while he lacks consistency has a bigtime arm and isn't afraid to force the issue. Rams may be a tad overrated IMHO.

 

[mrpickem]

Although I've enjoyed a nice run in the playoffs, nothing is a layup this weekend, but it's going to be fun!

PLAYOFFS RECORD BY PLAY TYPE

Obviously teasers have shown the way in the playoffs and been a great overall addition to my game going 46-32 +55.56u for the NFL season.

I'm not entirely sure haw much Nix means to the Broncos, but the book has definitely rated him highly. Most things I've looked at point to Broncos hanging close and likely cashing the tempting number, still haven't played anything yet but definitely leaning to the ponies. Crazy thing is the model still selects Denver even though they are rated only the 8th best team at this point. lol

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
8/6.96 HOU +3' -115
5/4.55 NE u41 -110
7/6.80 CHI +4 -103
8/7.62 CHI u49 -105
5/6.00 TEAS.(HOU +10, CHI +11 & u56') 7-Pt
4/5.40 TEAS.(NE +3' & u48, CHI +10') 7-Pt
2.24/2 Luther Burden Receiving Yards O38' -112
4/5.00 TEAS.(BUF +11 & o35', SEA +3, NE u51) 10-Pt

PLAYOFFS:[21-10 +54.24u]
LAST DAY: [4-4 +4.58u]

SUNDAY

• 5/4.81 NE -3' -104
• 3/2.00 1H-NE -150
• 3/2.46 1H-NE o20' -122
• 5/4.35 NE o42 -115
• 6/4.88 LAR +3 -123
• 3/3.30 1H-LAR +110
• 5/4.76 SEA u46 -105
• 5/3.85 TEAS.(NE +3' & o36) 7-Pt
• 4/3.64 TEAS.(SEA +3' & u52) 6-Pt
• 4/3.33 TEAS.(NE +6, SEA +7' & u56) 10-Pt

​

randoms...

• PLAYOFF DOGS 44-31 58.7% ATS LAST 7 YEARS (5-5 THIS YEAR)
• HOME DOGS IN PLAYOFFS 16-5 76.2% ATS 2015-26 (DEN)
• HOME DOGS > +3 IN PLAYOFFS 4-1 80.0% ATS 2015-26 (DEN)
• PLAYOFF DOGS 33-21 60.4% ATS WHEN TOTAL OVER 45
• PLAYOFF UNDER CASH 58.5% (31-22) WHEN TOTAL >45
• PLAYOFF TEAMS 20-9 69% ATS LAST 6 YEARS W/NOT IN PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR VS TEAM THAT WAS (SEA)
• PLAYOFF TEAMS 13-18 41.9% ATS WHEN AWAY AFTER FAILING TO COVER LAST GAME L10 YEARS
• ROAD DOGS 16-5 CATCHING 3 IN THE PLAYOFFS ARE 8-2 80% OVER L10 YEARS (HOU)
• PLAYOFF HOMERS 40-22 59.7% ATS w/line<=10 & total < 52 OVER L7 YEARS
• 

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
5/4.81 NE -3' -104
3/2.00 1H-NE -150
3/2.46 1H-NE o20' -122
5/4.35 NE o42 -115
6/4.88 LAR +3 -123
3/3.30 1H-LAR +110
5/4.76 SEA u46 -105
5/3.85 TEAS.(NE +3' & o36) 7-Pt
4/3.64 TEAS.(SEA +3' & u52) 6-Pt
4/3.33 TEAS.(NE +6, SEA +7' & u56) 10-Pt

PLAYOFFS: [21-19 +14.24u]
LAST DAY: [0-9-1 -40.00u]

SUPER SUNDAY

• 4/3.81 NE +5 -105
• 3/2.80 1H-NE +3 -107
• 5/4.76 NE u45' -105
• 3/2.91 1H-NE u22 -103
• 3/6.45 NE +215
• 5/3.85 TEAS.(NE +12 & u52') 7-Pt

Couldn't have done much worse than last time out. You know it's bad when a push is your highlight. I'm not overly sold on NE, but I do think they've been under-rated all year, and Grable has played into that. So it's better for them today being the dog. EA is a good, but not great team, and basically the same can be said for NE...so I'll ride with the dog one last time. Good luck to all!