Playoff Thread

[raems]

Haven't posted at all in MLB / haven't played much - posted one night's worth of plays and literally got swept, so there's that.

Baltimore Under 3.5 1/1
Jays -1.5 1/1.45

Read a very interesting post on Bluebird Banter, call it confirmation bias if you want but it already supported my lean. These stats are thanks to them.

Stroman innings 1-4 has a 2.93 FIP (essentially Cy Young stuff). First time through the lineup, Liriano's opposition has a .298 OBP, 2nd time through the lineup a .335 OBP. When you factor in that Baltimore's lineup against righties will predominantly be in the game when he comes in, one of two things can happen. The first is the O's don't make subs and wait Liriano out, and the second is they make a bunch of subs and cost themselves the opportunity to play matchups later against the bullpen.

On the other side, Tillman's fastball has been 1-2mph slower in his last 4-5 starts and he's only on 4 days rest today. In the grand scheme of things it's not that big a deal, but when your last start was against this same Toronto team and you scraped by, regression suggests he gets hit some tonight. -150 open also very strong, was hoping to see it crash a little and it has. Think this is a great spot for Toronto, they should win this game many more times out of a hundred than the odds suggest.

Giants -101 1.01/1

MadBum, that's all I've got in this analysis.

GL guys.

 

[JohnnyGambler]

Stroman a 3.01 xFIP over the 2nd half of the year and K/9 improved greatly to 8.5 or so. Big GB pitcher too vs HR hitting O's.
Tillman 4.88 xFIP over the 2nd half of the year. 6.4 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9.

Stroman and Jays an intangible edge too. Kid is high strung and energetic and will feed off that electric crowd. Loves the big stage. No doubt Gibbons made the right choice. Jays should win big.

 

[nbafan88]

Tillman is on 5 days rest. Not 4.

 

[raems]

Better to be lucky than good sometimes.

 

[B.A.R.]

Better to be lucky than good sometimes.

Never a doubt, lol.

Good start to the playoffs.

 

[raems]

Bought off the Giants, wiped the bet out with a Mets +105 bet risking 1u -- won't post it to my record because it's either plus or minus .02 units either way.

Thought through this a little bit more. Syndergaard threw 127 less pitches in September and is on extra rest at home, MadBum on 4 days rest. don't see an edge for SF aside from intangibles and Thor's complete inability to stop basestealers, which isn't really how I decide on my plays. Happy to take my lucky profit from last night and enjoy tonight's duel without action.

 

[raems]

2-0, +2.45u playoffs

Jays ML +115 1/1.15

Like the righty bats against a good not great lefty, this is also a little more qualitative than quantitative but Estrada just has the look and feel of a gamer, he's also been pitching pretty consistently the last couple weeks heading in. Don't like missing out on 10-15 cents on the line, but so be it.

 

[raems]

3-0, +3.6u playoffs

Nats Under 2.5 1.25/1

Kershaw well rested, hasn't been worked to death this year which is a welcome change from a fatigue standpoint compared to prior postseasons he's pitched in. I just expect the guy to deal, having Jansen late is nice too. Having the home team under is good too in a game they definitely can win 1 or 2-0, potentially only need 24 outs instead of 27.

Have a bunch of other leans but trying to stay disciplined, what a day of baseball. Fantastic matchups all around.

 

[raems]

Jays +115 1/1.15

With Lewis and Perez going in Game 3 and potentially Game 4, plus facing the team that beat them last year, plus getting killed yesterday, plus their ace in Darvish going today, plus generally struggling at home in the postseason over the recent past, just feels like a spot where the Rangers press as normal human beings would. This spot is absolute gravy for the Jays, expecting them to come in feeling good and confident.

 

[raems]

F5 Under 4 in Cleveland 1.1/1.

Kluber knows he needs to provide some length and I expect him to. Expect Price to fare well first two times through the lineup as well provided he mixes up his first pitches and doesn't groove fastballs. Not enough confidence in the bullpens to keep it below 7.5 in an AL game.

 

[raems]

4-2, +3.4u

Gio +125 1/1.25

Think the lefty does enough to keep the Nats in this game, no huge analysis here just taking the dog in what I feel is a tossup.

Indians +138 1/1.38

Same analysis as the Nats play.

 

[Timh]

Nice work, BOL today. Agree on Nats.

 

[tuck321]

Played them myself

 

[raems]

6-2, +6.03u

Nats under 2.5 1.15/1

Must win game, 3 days rest suggests Kershaw demanded to get the ball today. Like the bounce back spot for him at home + Jansen as well, call me crazy.

 

[raems]

6-3, +4.88u

Dodgers +140ml 1/1.4

Take my chances with Hill getting no more than 2 turns through the lineup (if Roberts knows what he's doing), then 2-3 innings of Urias's fire stuff being seen for the first time all series then 2 innings of Jansen. In a conventional regular season game, this is a stayaway, but with Urias available out of the pen, probably no desire to give Hill a third run through the lineup and with Jansen surely available for 2 innings, combined with the deeper bench, gives me some perceived value.

GL Guys, Indians RL is also in for tomorrow but will write it up later.

 

[raems]

7-3, +6.28u. On the next round

Indians -1.5 1/1.65

Off the long layoff, taking the team that does everything better other than hit. Better defense, pitching and baserunning in this game tonight, which are all things that show up regardless of layoff. Kluber's velocity was down a tick in Game 2 against the Red Sox, think the extra rest here allows him to gain more of a rythm. Estrada not a guy I trust to show up start after start after start, think +140 is more of a fair number for him in this game.

GL guys.

 

[raems]

Btw, what an amazing playoffs so far. Started with the Encarnacion homer through that bullpen drama last night, beem amazing so far almost on a nightly basis.

 

[raems]

Indians Game 4 ML +115 1/1.15

Snatched this as soon as the line popped up, no business being a dog right now. I know Tito made this move to set Kluber up for a potential Game 7, but it also has inadvertently become a move that the team can rally around. They'll be motivated to finish this off imo, 3 days rest is tough but Kluber hasn't really been under much stress in either of his playoff starts thus far and had a tick up in velocity in Game 1 so he's clearly healthy.

 

[raems]

8-4, +6.93u

Dodgers Game 4 ML -104. 2.08/2

Dodgers have consistently seen the ball well coming out of righties' hands, and the Cubs have consistently not seen the ball well coming out of lefties' hands. Playing at home and feeling good, taking what I see is an unfair line. This also falls under complete and utter speculation, but I personally feel like a 20 year old going out there is actually something the Dodgers can rally around, type of spot where teammates show up for each other.

 

[raems]

8-5, +4.85u

Cubs Game 1 ML 1.14/1
Cubs -1.5 Games 1.05/1

Think beating Kershaw at home in their first shot back in Chicago Game 6 the other night was their version of slaying the dragon, expecting the Cubs to finish this off in 4 or 5 games but don't have desire to lay -220 lines when this thing goes back to Chicago.

Done posting for baseball, out of town for a couple weeks starting tomorrow. GL guys!