Playoff Stat Streaks

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
A couple of days back I posted some unusual stat streaks the playoffs had coughed up, with an eye for their ending and duly enough almost all of them did. That wasn't the only day I've noted such streaks, but a great deal of them are pertinent more for live betting than pre-game bets, and since to post them in the in-game would be to see them lost amongst the back-pages soon enough, I've decided to create a thread for them so the streaks that do survive don't become lost, but can be readily tracked for future application.

OK, enough of the BS preamble, here are some streaks, some of which will almost all but certainly end at some point in 1 of Thursday's 2 games.

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The last 3 playoff games have seen the road team fail to win any 1h Q

This has only happened twice previously in these playoffs. On both previous occasions the streak ended at 3 games, and on both occasions the road team won the 1Q to do so. Both times the streak ending games were from the Boston/Chicago series (G2 & 3), so once again Boston has the potential to be involved in the streak ending result since they're obv. involved with the next playoff game on tap. Of course there's no reason to think Washington can't win (or tie) both periods thus keeping the streak alive, but of course that would lead to it coming down to the Jazz ending the streak, which I think we can all agree is no sure thing. It's quite possible this road team 1h futility streak survives Thursday's contests given the nature of each game.

Stats of note: In these playoffs the road team has won 6 of Boston's 8 x 1Q played, and the road team has won 7 of Washington's 8 x 1Q played.


(2) No road team has scored 90 pts or fewer for 28 games

This streak might not strike many on the surface as being unusually long, after all these are meant to be the better teams in the league given it's the playoffs and this is the 'new' higher scoring NBA. But even so, in the first 21 playoff games road teams scored 90 pts or fewer on 6 occasions, making for a ratio of one such occurrence every 3.5 games.

Stats of note: Utah has put up scores of 94 pts & 91 pts in their 2 road losses to date, so they're certainly a candidate to end this streak Thursday; and Boston's spot looks a definite flat one for them, they might just have that type of game where things get out of hand and scoring in the 2nd half dries up on the back of a long dead contest (a result which would dovetail with the fact Washington is 'due' an Under regression after cashing all 9 1h+2h+FG Overs in their L3 games).


(3) 1h totals are 6-0 to Over L6 games, and 21-10 to Over L31 games

These results are even across the conferences: 10-5 to Over for the EC & 11-5 to Over for the WC. Neither total result for either 1h or 2h has seen a 7-0 run in these playoffs: we've had one 6-0 run (2h Overs) & one 5-0 run (1h Overs) previously, then a number of 4-0 or 3-0 runs for both totals in both halves. Nothing says this streak can't reach 7 straight obv., but the previous results show we're nearing the ceiling for its continuance. I'd be surprised (but not shocked, given the slated games) if we ended Thursday with it still alive at 8-0.

Stats of note: Boston went 5-1 to Under for the 1h against Chicago, but has yet to record a 1h Under w/Washington. Washington has gone 3-0 to Under in their 3 home 1h thus far in the playoffs.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The home team has led at half-time in only 1 of Boston's 8 games so far, the lowest percentage for such a result for any playoff team (eliminated or still playing)

Given game 3 between Wash & Bos has all the hallmarks of your typical down spot for the road team, and the fact Washington seems to specialise in leading at the half (having done so in 4 straight games & 5 of 7), makes it hard to see Boston heading back home for game 5 with this 1h SU result category still sporting only that solitary home result. if Wash don't manage the feat here, then surely they do in game 4 (about the only scenario I don't see it happening in, is if the Celts beat the Wiz silly in game 3 and the Wiz then just come out flat & beaten for game 4).
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Edit: 4 out of 4 trends listed ended.
 
Ultimate Jinx, but almost just like that, looks like 2, and 4 are on pace to be broken.... possibly 1. If wiz can win 2q, sets up a chase on jizz 1q/2q (and maybe the first half under) right?

You da best BC
 
Scopey - so friggin hard to trust the Jazz, so whether one wants to chase them with pre-bets for the 1h Q situation is really odds dependent. I've live betting on that angle, so I can be content to accept lesser odds for the knowledge they're actually in with a shot to win a 1Q or 2Q.:shake2:
 
There is your under 90...

It took missing a bunch of shots in last few minutes but streak is broken.
 
Friday's 2 x Game 2's

4 playoff stat streaks of note on the line for Friday's games (remembering all my stats are based on opening lines), but there's a direct clash between 2 of them...

Western Conference Trends

(1) WC home teams have won 6 straight 4th Quarters SU

The previous longest run of consecutive WC home team 4Q wins was 5 games (twice). Both road teams to end those streaks also won their respective 2nd halves overall (one tied the 3Q, the other won the 3Q SU). Further, one of those 5 game streaks occurred just 6 games ago, meaning the overall run of WC home 4Q wins runs to 11 of the last 12 games played. Given the overall number is 'only' 18-8 in favour of the home teams, I think it's fair to say we're due a WC road team to come out on top in the last stanza of a game.


(2) WC teams with HCA have so far amassed a 22-4 SU record for 4th Quarters

By way of comparison, EC teams with HCA have gone 12-12-3 SU in the 4Q. In light of that for context, the WC figure is quite remarkable. Even more remarkable is the fact that of the remaining teams in the playoffs, only SA (8-0) & Hou (7-0) have failed to play in a game in which the team without HCA has won a 4Q SU. Thus a Houston 4Q win on Friday would take care of 2 unbroken streaks (the 2 individual team ones) and contribute to the start of a regression of results re the main one. But of course Houston is the home team, thus their winning the 4Q would continue the 6-0 WC home team 4Q winning streak.


Eastern Conference Trends

(For the following 2 streaks, please note that I have G3's opening line between Milwaukee & Toronto as a pick'em: I deal with that line in my recorded stats by designating the home team a -0.5 fave)

(1) EC Faves have won 6 straight games ATS

EC Faves began these playoffs with an ugly 0-7 ATS slide, but to bet them since has been basically to rob a bank with no police on duty: overall they're on a 16-4 run. Think it's safe to say we're 'due' a Doggy to bark in the East.


(2) EC road Faves have won every playoff game ATS (5-0) thus far

And the names of the teams who provide us with this figure? Boston (3-0 ATS) & Cleveland (2-0 ATS), our two leading candidates to make the ECF. I think it would be unusual for no EC venue to see a home dog cover ATS. Certainly Toronto is an obvious candidate to do so in at least 1 of their 2 home games, one would think. Obv. that could well be G4 once Cleveland is up 3-0 and comfortable, thus vulnerable.
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Edit: 1 of the 4 trends listed ended.
 
See I love the BC threads. I understand you expect the outcomes to eventually resolve to the mean, I like to continue the streak after it breaks.
Being a baccarat player, I see the shoe to usually change 3 times in regard to trends. There may be a certain repeating winner, when the break exceeds it's own max then the shoe has flopped. And you ride the new trend. Check to the power so to speak.
Thus, I will try the original streaks again. Should they lose then the trend is resolving. Since some trends were undefeated , one break is more than it's max.
Since I have not charted the 21-10, I don't know if there was a max already set.

GL and thanks for the info.

Press
 
GSW@UTH G3

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The road team has won 3 consecutive 3rd Quarters SU

The previous longest such streaks have lasted 3 games (3 times) & 2 games (3 times), so a Warriors 3Q win here would establish a playoff high mark. Now 3 games might seem SFA and what's the big deal if it goes to 4? ... In Utah's 9 playoff games to date, no home team has won the 3Q SU (8 losses & 1 tie). But wait, there's MORE! In GS's 6 playoff games to date, the home team has only won the 3Q SU once (GS in G2 vs Por). The 3Q seems to be the one Q that neither road teams or home teams can dominate, unlike the other periods. Case in point: the longest home 3Q winning streak these playoffs is, you guessed it, 3 games, but unlike the road teams it's only been managed on 1 occasion. Contrast that with the 4Q SU results, where the road teams have put up a 10 game winning streak & the home teams have put up a 7 game winning streak. All quarters may be the same length in time, but they're, for whatever reason, not all equal re SU result streaks. So whether this streak ends tomorrow or not, nothing about what's gone previously says it's got the potential to grow into anything like a 'behemoth'.


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC teams with HCA have won 6 straight 4th Quarters SU

...and amassed a 23-4 SU record in the 4Q overall. By way of comparison, EC teams with HCA have gone 13-12-3 SU in the 4Q overall (with a longest winning streak of 5 games). However, the previous longest WC winning streak here is 8 games, so the current streak is just 'notable', not record setting.


(2) No Road team has scored in the 110-119 pts range for 13 games

To put this drought into context: through the first 14 WC playoff games, road teams managed the feat 5 times (35.7% of the time). GS-on-the-road is generally speaking an obvious candidate to end such a drought, but they've only twice scored in this range against Utah in their last 10 meetings, and in both instances that was @home.


(3) No WC game has paid out on the 'Under-Trifecta' (1h+2h+FG) for 8 games

The length of this current streak equals the previous longest Under-Trifecta drought. Prior to this current streak, the Under-Trifecta had hit 6 times in 21 games (basically once every 3.5 games: a ratio that would normally have produced 2 such results over any 8-game span). Utah has yet to produce an Under-Trifecta in a home game in these playoffs, while GS's only 2 road playoff games so far have resulted in 2 Over-Trifectas.


(4) Barring games which involved San Antonio lined as the favourite, WC Faves have lost 7 straight games ATS.

The previous longest ATS droughts for WC faves in 'non-SA fave' games these playoffs have been all of 4 games (once) then 2 games (once). Thus this current streak is on the brink of doubling the next longest one.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Road team has won Utah's last 5 games ATS

This streak equals the longest previous streak of road ATS covers related to a specific team's games (that belonging to Houston, a streak which ended just recently in G2 vs. SA). 3 other teams have managed to involve themselves in 4-game road ATS win streaks, and one other team has currently got a live 3-game road ATS win streak going: & wouldn't you know it, that team is GS. So once again we have 2 unusually long streaks of which one must end Saturday: either this one, or #4 for the WC trends.
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Edit: 2 of the 5 trends listed ended.
 
Sunday's 3 x Game 4's

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The road team has won 4 consecutive 3rd Quarters SU

The previous longest such streaks have lasted 3 games (3 times) & 2 games (3 times). The 3Q seems to be the one Q that neither road teams or home teams can dominate, unlike the other periods. Case in point are the 4Q SU results, where the road teams have put up a 10 game winning streak & the home teams have put up a 7 game winning streak. So with 3 games on the card for Sunday, one would be on safe grounds to doubt this streak grows to be more than twice as long as the 3 next longest streaks achieved in this particular statistical category in these playoffs.


(2) No Home team has won a 2h Quarter SU for 3 straight games

The previous longest 2h Q SU droughts for home teams in these playoffs have been 2 games (twice). With 3 games on tap Sunday, think it's not going out on a limb to suggest a home team or 2 is going to experience some success at some point come the 2h.


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC teams with HCA have won 7 straight 4th Quarters SU

...and amassed a 24-4 SU record in the 4Q overall. By way of comparison, EC teams with HCA have gone 13-12-3 SU in the 4Q overall (with a longest winning streak of 5 games). However, the previous longest WC winning streak here is 8 games, so the current streak is just 'notable', not record setting.

Stats of note: Teams in SA games w/HCA are 9-0 SU in 4Q, and teams in HOU games w/HCA are 8-0 SU in the 4Q.


(2) WC Road teams have won 5 straight 3 Quarters SU

The previous longest such streaks in these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (twice). Further, WC road teams playing at any venue other than the AT&T Center in San Antonio are on a 15 game SU unbeaten run in the 3Q (14 wins, 1 tie). One might observe that it's high time a home team not called the Spurs didn't come out of the blocks slow after experiencing some half-time rest.


(3) No Road team has scored in the 110-119 pts range for 14 games

To put this drought into context: through the first 14 WC playoff games road teams managed the feat 5 times (35.7% of the time).

Stats of note: Given Houston's defense, one might consider SA on paper to be a prime candidate to manage this feat, but in their last 10 games in Houston dating back to March 2013 the Spurs have (1) managed a highest score of 106 pts; (2) managed to crack 100 pts just 50% of the time; and (3) averaged only 96.7 ppg.


Eastern Conference Trends

(For the following 2 streaks, please note that I have G3's opening line between Milwaukee & Toronto as a pick'em: I deal with that line in my recorded stats by designating the home team a -0.5 fave)

(1) EC Faves have won 7 straight games ATS

EC Faves began these playoffs with an ugly 0-7 ATS slide, but to bet them since has been basically to rob a bank with no police on duty: overall they're on a 17-4 run. Think it's safe to say to beware of backing both faves on Sunday, statistically at least it's playing with fire. Past experience says fave results are hitting a saturation point, and there's always a regression to the mean when that happens.


(2) EC road Faves have won every playoff game ATS (6-0) thus far

And the names of the teams who provide us with this figure? Boston (3-0 ATS) & Cleveland (3-0 ATS), our two leading candidates to make the ECF. I think it would be unusual for no EC venue to see a home dog cover ATS. With Cleveland up 3-0 and comfortable, one wonders how vulnerable that makes them to losing their first game of the playoffs.


(3) EC Home teams have won 6 straight 2 Quarters SU

The previous longest such streaks in these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (once). On one other occasion road teams have failed to win 6 straight 2Q, but that instance involved 2 ties along with 4 losses. By way of contrast, the longest WC home 2Q SU winning streak has been 2 games (4 times).


(4) No EC Road team has led at half-time & won SU for 6 games

The previous longest such streaks in these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (twice). This EC trend naturally dovetails with trend #3 for overall playoff games.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Road team has led at half-time in only 1 of Toronto's 9 games thus far

Only one other playoff team (present or eliminated) has rendered a more futile 1h SU record for road teams in these playoffs: no road team led at h/t in any of Memphis's 6 playoff games with the Spurs. Of the teams remaining, only 1 road team has led @h/t in both GS's & Cleveland's 7 respective games and only 2 have done so in the Spurs 9 games. But for any team that's played more than 6 games in these playoffs, Toronto can boast the worst percentage of road teams to led SU at the half.


(2) Cleveland has won 5 straight games ATS (all as a Fave)

Only Boston, with 6 wins (also all as the fave), can boast of a longer ATS win streak in these playoffs thus far. By contrast, the longest WC ATS winning streaks have been 3 games (once) then 2 games (6 times).


(3) No Cleveland game has yet paid out an Under Trifecta (1h+2h+FG)

Of all the other teams in the playoffs (present or eliminated), the only other team to have managed this feat was, unsurprisingly, Cleveland's 1R opponent (Indiana). This trend obv. means that anyone who has chased an individual half Over (1h then 2h) in Cleveland's 7 games to date has yet to lose. Cleveland is 16-6 to Over for 1h(6-1)+2h(5-2)+FG(5-2) totals combined.


(4) Washington failed to lose any Quarter SU in G3 vs. Boston

There's only been 3 other teams to have managed to avoid losing any Q SU in a single game in these playoffs: every one of those teams lost at least one 1h Q SU in their next game (one lost the 1Q, 2 lost the 2Q). And for some wider context: the most number of Q any team has played without losing any SU is 7 (once - SA) then 5 (5 times - 5 different teams). So given the previous standards set by these playoffs (at least), the odds are extremely prohibitive for Washington to repeat their feat of G3 in G4.


(5) Boston is 4-0 to Under for FG road game totals

No other playoff team (present or eliminated) has failed to pay out on at least 1 FG Over in a road game. The Celts are the last man left standing against the new wave of NBA scoring when it comes to venues other than their own.


(6) San Antonio is 4-0 to Over in the 2h of their road games

No other WC team (and only one other EC team, Chicago @3-0 to Over) can boast of not having paid out on a 2h Under at a venue other than their own in the playoffs thus far.


(7) San Antonio has won every 2h Quarter in their last 3 road games

No other playoff team (present or eliminated) has managed to win every 2h Q SU in consecutive games, let alone 3 straight. No doubt the basketball Gods will be looking askance at the Rockets if they lay another 2h egg on their home boards in G4.
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Edit: 10 of the 15 trends listed ended.
 
bc.....quick question, there had been 3 straight unders so far, do u think a mini chase on the overs with 3 games today is worth it?
 
number2 said:
bc.....quick question, there had been 3 straight unders so far, do u think a mini chase on the overs with 3 games today is worth it?
Click to expand...

Sorry, was off-site by the time you made that post, number2.

However, the basis for what I would've replied in turn hasn't changed: we had such a strong run of Over results just recently (8 in 10 games) that I'd have observed that all 3 games going Under today (therefore making for a 6-0 run), while unlikely, could've then been seen as a balanced regression to that previous Over tide (thus making for 8 results of each total over the last 16 games), so I would've said that such a chase had its risks. But at the moment the Was/Bos game (early in the 4Q as I type) looks to be ending this mini-Under regression.
 
17 of 28 trends I've listed have ended in the past 4 days, though 2 counteracted each other meaning 1 had to end (& while a few trends have been repeated after not having ended the first time round, they're still up to ending on the individual day listed, so it makes sense to count each of their separate failures): excising the 2 counteracting trends from the narrative means 16 of 26 trends listed have ended, that's a rate of 61.5%.

If these trends continue at (so far) only a 38.5% rate the day they're listed, it makes sense to be wary of betting against them. I try to only introduce trends when they're pregnant for change, and try to avoid listing obscure streaks that while unusually long, either aren't really relevant to major betting options or are but can't be said to be calculable for worth, ie. we've gone 50+ playoff games without either a home or road team scoring 130+ pts, so while it's relevant to team total betting strictly speaking it's not really for betting purposes because who could confidently pick when & where that drought was going to end (most likely in an OT game).

1h+2h+Fg+Team total trends, SU & ATS trends, and quarter & half trends are what I'm focusing on digging into for unusually long repetitive outcomes, situations that can be bet (& if necessary/chosen to be, chased) in situations where situational realities align with the expectation of the trend ending. Houston at home off a home loss was extremely unlikely imo to lose both 2nd half quarters SU. They ended up winning both SU.
 
GSW@UTH Game 4

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) No game has been decided by a 1-6 pt margin for 16 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 5 games (once) then 3 games (3 times), so this current streak is more than 3 times longer than the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.

Stat of note: 2 of Utah's 4 home games to date have been decided by 1-6 pt margins, while 1 of GS's 3 road games to date have been decided by the same.


(2) No game has been decided by a 1-4 pt margin for 20 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 7 games (twice) then 5 games (once), so this current streak is nearly 3 times as long as the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.


(3) Teams leading after 3 Quarters have not lost SU for 11 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 11 games (once) then 9 games (once) then 8 games (once). Prior to this streak beginning, 9 teams over 48 games had lost SU after starting the 4Q with a lead, making for a rate of one such loser every 5.3 games.


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC Dogs haven't won the 1st Quarter SU in 6 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 5 games (twice) then 2 games (once), thus this current winless drought sets a new playoff high mark.

Stat of note: GS is 6-1 SU in the 1Q these playoffs (only loss @Portland), while Utah is 2-7-1 SU.


(2) The last 6 WC teams to win their game SU have also won the 4th Quarter SU

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 6 games (once), 3 games (once) then 2 games (once), thus this current streak matches the previous high mark. Prior to this current streak, 9 of 23 4Q SU winners lost their games SU: given a previous 39.1% rate for such result (2 every 5 games played), a 6-game absence for such a result doesn't seem so negligible.


(3) No WC game's 2nd half has totaled between 100-109 pts for 9 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 8 games (once) then 6 games (once). Further, the breakdown of 2nd half scoring is exceedingly 'all-or-nothing' (to put it one way) in WC games...

80-89 pts:..... 2 times
90-99 pts:... 10 times
100-109 pts:.. 4 times
110-119 pts: 13 times
120+ pts:...... 0 times

Compare that to WC 1h scoring which has peaked in the 100-109 pt range and otherwise has produced evenly spread results outside of it...

80-89 pts:..... 3 times
90-99 pts:..... 7 times
100-109 pts: 10 times
110-119 pts:.. 4 times
120+ pts:...... 5 times


(4) No WC game has been decided by a 1-8 pt margin for 8 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 3 games (once) then 2 games (twice), so this current streak is more than twice the length of the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.

Stat of note: 3 of Utah's 4 home games to date have been decided by 1-8 pt margins, while 1 of GS's 3 road games to date have been decided by the same.


(5) No WC game has been decided by a 1-4 pt margin for 10 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (twice) then 2 games (once), so this current streak is more than twice as long as the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.


(6) No Road team has scored in the 110-119 pts range for 15 games

To put this drought into context: through the first 14 WC playoff games, road teams managed the feat 5 times (35.7% of the time). GS-on-the-road is generally speaking an obvious candidate to end such a drought, but they've only twice scored in this range against Utah in their last 10 meetings, and in both instances that was @home.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Road team has won Utah's last 6 games ATS

This streak is the longest streak of road ATS covers specific to one team's games in the playoffs. Houston managed the 2nd highest at 5 games, and 4 other teams have managed to be involved in 4 game road ATS win streaks (one of which is GS, whose streak is currently still live, surprise surprise).


(2) The Road team has won 8 straight 3rd Quarters SU in Utah's games

The best such streaks involving all the other (present or eliminated) playoff teams have been 5 games (twice) then 4 games (once) then 3 games (once): one of those 5 game streaks belongs to GS and thus is currently live, which means 2 statistically lengthy streaks will end if Utah comes out of the blocks fast after half-time on Monday. And just ftr, no home team has won a Utah 3Q in the playoffs so far (the result this current streak was a tie, and the road team won it SU the game before that).
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Edit: 1 of the 11 listed trends ended.
 
HOU@SAS Game 5

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) No game has been decided by a 1-6 pt margin for 17 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 5 games (once) then 3 games (3 times), so this current streak is more than 3 times longer than the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.

Stat of note: see (2) below.


(2) No game has been decided by a 1-4 pt margin for 21 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 7 games (twice) then 5 games (once), so this current streak is 3 times as long as the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.

Stat of note: SA's 5 playoff home games thus far have been decided by 29, 14, 13, 27 & 25 pt margins. However 3 of SA's last 6 regular season home games vs. Houston have been decided by 4 pts or less.


(3) Teams leading after 3 Quarters have not lost SU for 12 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 11 games (once) then 9 games (once) then 8 games (once). Prior to this streak beginning, 9 teams over 48 games had lost SU after starting the 4Q with a lead, making for a rate of one such loser every 5.3 games.

Stat of note: Teams leading after the 3Q have lost SU 3 times in games involving Houston, all vs. OKC (g2, g4 & g5). To date, no other team has been involved in such an outcome more than once.


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC Dogs haven't won the 1st Quarter SU in 7 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 5 games (twice) then 2 games (once), thus this current winless drought sets a new playoff high mark.

Stat of note: The Dog has gone 1-3 SU in Houston's 4 road 1Q so far, and has gone 2-2-1 SU in SA's 5 home 1Q (however, SA playing @home off a road game has yet to win a 1Q SU: 1 loss & 1 tie in this spot). The last 3 1Q in this series have been won by the fave.


(2) The last 5 WC games have seen a Fave 1Q/Dog 2Q SU winning combo cash

The previous longest streaks for this specific 1Q/2Q combination for WC games had been 3 games (twice) & 2 games (once). For the EC, the longest streak is 2 games (once). So previous results indicate this current run is rather lengthy already.


(3) The last 3 WC games have all seen a Fave-Dog-Fave-Fave SU combination win through the 4 Quarters

There had been 3 other instances in total of this SU sequence occurring in 27 previous WC playoff games (none consecutively) before this current streak, and it's only occurred 3 times (none consecutively) in 30 EC playoff games. Think I'm on safe ground thinking this streak's sequence is not very bloody likely going to be repeated yet again Tuesday.


(4) The last 7 WC teams to win their game SU have also won the 4th Quarter SU

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 6 games (once), 3 games (once) then 2 games (once), thus this current streak has set a new high mark. Prior to this current streak, 9 of 23 4Q SU winners lost their games SU: given a previous 39.1% rate for such result (2 every 5 games played), a 7-game absence for such a result doesn't seem so negligible.

Stats of note: The 4Q winner losing SU has occurred in 3 of SA's 10 playoff games; in 2 of Houston's 9 playoff games; and it occurred in g1 of their current series.


(5) No WC game has been decided by a 1-8 pt margin for 9 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 3 games (once) then 2 games (twice), so this current streak is 3 times the length of the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.

Stat of note: see (2) for Overall playoff trends.


(6) No WC game has been decided by a 1-4 pt margin for 11 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (twice) then 2 games (once), so this current streak is more than twice as long as the previous longest 'tight contest' drought.

Stat of note: see (2) for Overall playoff trends.


(7) No Road team has scored in the 110-119 pts range for 16 games

To put this drought into context: through the first 14 WC playoff games, road teams managed the feat 5 times (35.7% of the time). Given Houston managed 126 pts in G1, they must be considered a chance to knock this streak on its head, but more than probably only if they win SU: hard to see the Spurs conceding that much if they defeat the Rockets.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Spurs are unbeaten in 4th Quarters @home (5-0 SU)

No other playoff team (present or eliminated) has managed the same feat.

Stat of note: Houston is 2-2 SU in road game 4Q, and 6-3 SU in the 4Q overall in the playoffs.


(2) Every SU winner of the Spurs 5 home games has won the 2nd Quarter SU

Of all the other playoff teams (present or eliminated), only Cleveland can say the same thing about their home games.
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Edit: 8 of the 12 listed trends ended
 
Great stuff. I think this series is ready for a close game. These playoffs need it right now as well. I think I know my initial two positions for this game. Thanks for your hard work.
 
WAS@BOS G5

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) Teams leading after 3 Quarters have not lost SU for 13 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 11 games (once) then 9 games (once) then 8 games (once). Prior to this streak beginning, 9 teams over 48 games had lost SU after starting the 4Q with a lead, making for a rate of one such loser every 5.3 games.

Stat of note: Bos & Wash have each been involved in 1 game to this point in which they trailed after 3Q and won SU.


(2) No Home team has scored between 103-114 pts in reg. for 12 games

The previous longest such home scoring droughts have been 9 games (once) then 3 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, home teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 19 times in 49 games = once every 2.58 games.


Eastern Conference Trends

(For the following 2 streaks, please note that I have G3's opening line between Milwaukee & Toronto as a pick'em: I deal with that line in my recorded stats by designating the home team a -0.5 fave)

(1) EC Faves have won 9 straight games ATS

EC Faves began these playoffs with an ugly 0-7 ATS slide, but they've gone on a whopping 19-4 run since. Needless to say, the prevailing state of affairs over the last 23 EC games are highly unusual.


(2) No EC 2nd half has totaled 100 regulation pts or fewer for 5 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (twice) then 3 games (once). Before this current 5-game drought, 40.0% of EC 2h were totaling 100 pts for fewer.

Stats of note: 4 of Wash's last 5 road 2h have totaled 104 pts or fewer in regulation, and 5 of Boston's last 7 1h overall have totaled 103 pts or fewer in regulation.


(3) No EC game has been decided by a 1-6 pt margin for 10 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 2 games (twice), so this current streak is more than twice the length of the previous longest EC 'tight contest' drought.


(4) No EC game has been decided by a 1-4 pt margin for 10 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 9 games (once) then 2 games (once), so this current streak is now the longest drought the EC has experienced for such a result.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Favourite has won Boston's last 8 games ATS

Cleveland (with a live 6-0 run) is the only other team in the playoffs so far that has been involved in more than 4 straight games covered by the fave (next best is 4 straight, involving 3 teams: one of those streaks is still live, belonging to Washington).


(2) Washington hasn't trailed @half-time for 6 games

The next best such streaks in these playoffs have totaled 4 games (once, by Boston) then 3 games (by 4 different teams).


(3) Washington has won the 1st Quarter in 4 straight road games

The next best such streaks in these playoffs have totaled 3 games by 4 teams (one of which, by GS, is still alive), so the Wiz are certainly in uncharted territory.
-----
Edit: 2 of the 9 listed trends ended.
 
SAS@HOU G6

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The last 5 games have gone 5-0 to Over

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 5 games (once), 4 games (once) then 3 games (twice). As much as this is the 'new NBA' scoring wise, full-game Unders have never yet been AWOL through 6 straight games these playoffs. With the Rockets hosting a game @home, one might think that the situation is perfect for a new mark to be set, but then elimination game's 6 & 7 in the 2nd round and beyond usually have other ideas...


(2) No 1st Half has totaled between 100-109 pts for 8 games

The previous longest such home scoring droughts have been 8 games (once) then 6 games (once) then 5 games (once). Yet another streak matches the current playoffs previous high mark.

Stats of note: This series has seen 1 of 5 1h total in this range; SA has seen 1 of 5 road 1h total in this range; Houston has seen 1 of 5 home 1h total in this range.


(3) The 1h Over/2h Under combination has paid out for 2 straight games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 2 games (twice), thus providing a context to make the observation that one wouldn't expect this current streak to last for very much longer. From a wider perspective, the overall numbers for each 1h total combination so far...

O-O: 24 times ... longest streak = 3 games (twice)
O-U: 14 times (includes this streak's 2 results)
U-U: 14 times ... longest streak = 2 games (once)
U-O: 13 times ... longest streak = 2 games (twice)

Outside the exceptionally strong O-O numbers, the 3 other combinations have all mirrored a similar hit-rate and have also mirrored each other's highest streak mark of 2 games. Thus this angle also underlines the unlikelihood of this current O-U run lasting for very much longer.


(4) No Home team has scored between 103-114 pts in reg. for 13 games

The previous longest such home scoring droughts have been 9 games (once) then 3 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, home teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 19 times in 49 games = once every 2.58 games.


(5) The Fave has won 5 straight 3rd Quarters SU

The previous longest such home scoring droughts have been 4 games (rtwice) then 3 games (twice), thus we've had another record setting mark for these playoffs reached with this current streak.

Stat of note: the Dog is 2-3 SU in the 3Q in this SA/Hou series, each team having each won one in the other's building.


(6) The Dog hasn't won SU for 7 games

The previous longest such droughts have been 7 games (twice) then 6 games (once) then 4 games (once). This drought having any chance of ending surely all depends on KL's ankle.


(7) Teams leading after 3 Quarters have not lost SU for 14 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 11 games (once) then 9 games (once) then 8 games (once). Prior to this streak beginning, 9 teams over 48 games had lost SU after starting the 4Q with a lead, making for a rate of one such loser every 5.3 games.

Stat of note: Teams leading after the 3Q have lost SU 3 times in games involving Houston (all vs. OKC: g2, g4 & g5). To date, no other team has been involved in such an outcome more than once.


(8) The previous game saw the Fave fail to lose SU any Quarter played

This had happened only twice previously in 61 playoff games prior to Bos/Wash G5, so I'm not representing this specific result as a trend, to do so would be a waste of time. The wider context for this outcome is to look at the stats for the longest consecutive number of quarters played which the fave has not lost any SU: 6 (3 times) then 5 (once) then 4 (6 times). So, over consecutive playoff games no fave has managed to go 7 straight quarters without losing at least 1 of them SU. Over 62 playoff games, that makes for 56 separate chances to potentially achieve that feat, for a 0% hit-rate. If I didn't know better, I'd suggest chasing the Spurs through the first 3Q to win one SU, but then I do know better because the status of KL's ankle is what potentially makes for the exact conditions to see this 6-unbeaten-Q ceiling broken. Spurs to mail this game and sit KL for their best chance to win this series come G7? At the moment your guess is as good as mine. (Just as a matter of interest, Dogs have once gone 7 straight quarters without losing any one of them SU: that run involved 5 wins & 2 ties.)


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC Dogs haven't won the 1st Quarter SU in 8 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 5 games (twice) then 2 games (once), thus this current win-less drought is easily a new playoff high mark.

Stat of note: The Fave has won 4 straight 1Q in this SA/Hou series. In neither team's prior (1R) series had this feat occurred in more than 2 straight games.


(2) WC Dogs have won the 2nd Quarter SU for 6 straight games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 6 games (once) then 5 games (once), so this current streak has matched the previous longest run of 2Q domination by the dog.


(3) The last 6 WC games have seen a Fave 1Q/Dog 2Q SU winning combo cash

The previous longest streaks for this specific 1Q/2Q combination for WC games have been 3 games (twice) & 2 games (once). For the EC, the longest streak is 2 games (once). So at twice the length of the previous longest streak for either Conference, this current run is rather lengthy already.


(4) The last 4 WC games have seen a Fave 1Q/Dog 2Q/Fave 3Q SU winning combo cash

There are no previous streaks longer than 1 game: in fact, the total number of instances the 27 previous WC playoff games coughed up of this 3Q sequence only numbered 4 (funnily enough, the EC has also produced exactly 4 such results, in 31 games). 4 games produce as many of a particular as the previous 27 combined? One would think it's safe to say there'll be change in the air come Thursday.


(5) No WC Road team has scored in the 110-119 pts range for 17 games

To put this drought into context: through the first 14 WC playoff games, road teams managed the feat 5 times (35.7% of the time).


Individual Team Trends

(1) The home team has won 4 straight 1st Quarters SU in this series

Only one other series in these playoffs (Cle/Ind) has produced 4 straight home 1Q SU winners, and thus no other series starting the 2nd Round or beyond has outside of this one.
-----
Edit: 11 of the 14 listed trends ended.
 
BOS@WAS G6

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) No Home team has scored between 103-114 pts in reg. for 14 games

The previous longest such home scoring droughts have been 9 games (once) then 3 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, home teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 19 times in 49 games = once every 2.58 games.


(2) Teams leading after 3 Quarters have not lost SU for 15 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 11 games (once) then 9 games (once) then 8 games (once). Prior to this streak beginning, 9 teams over 48 games had lost SU after starting the 4Q with a lead, making for a rate of one such loser every 5.3 games.

Stat of note: Bos & Wash have each been involved in 1 game to this point in which they trailed after 3Q and won SU.


(3) The Road team has won 4 straight Quarters SU

The previous longest such Dog SU streaks in these playoffs have been 4 consecutive Q wins (3 times) then 3 consecutive Q wins (5 times).


(4) The Dog has won 4 straight Quarters SU

The previous longest such Dog SU streaks in these playoffs have been 4 consecutive Q wins (once) then 3 consecutive Q wins (4 times).

While (3) & (4) overlap for Friday's game since Boston is the road team & also the dog, the prior stats that make for their previous highest streaks are different due to the fact that some for (3) involve road faves and some for (4) involve home dogs, results which of course do not apply to both streaks (which is just to underline the fact that they are obviously different categories).


Eastern Conference Trends

(For the following 2 streaks, please note that I have G3's opening line between Milwaukee & Toronto as a pick'em: I deal with that line in my recorded stats by designating the home team a -0.5 fave)

(1) EC Faves have won 10 straight games ATS

EC Faves began these playoffs with an ugly 0-7 ATS slide, but they've gone on a whopping 20-4 run since. Needless to say, the prevailing state of affairs over the last 24 games are not simply highly unusual but basically unprecedented for the playoffs (as far as my memory goes).


(2) EC Home Faves have won 7 straight games ATS

This current streak equals the previous best ATS streak by any of the 3 other fave combinations (EC-road; WC-home; WC-road), which is the still live 7-0 ATS run by EC road faves.


(3) No EC Dog has won SU for 10 games

The previous longest such EC streaks in these playoffs have been 7 games (once) then 4 games (once) then 2 games (once). The WC SU-Dog drought just ended in a rather remarkable way, so will lightning strike twice in 2 days?


(4) No EC 2nd half has totaled 100 regulation pts or fewer for 6 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (twice) then 3 games (once). Before this current 6-game drought, 40.0% of EC 2h were totaling 100 pts for fewer.


(5) No EC game has been decided by a 1-6 pt margin for 11 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 2 games (twice), so this current streak is nearly three times the length of the next longest EC 'tight contest' drought.


(6) No EC game has been decided by a 1-4 pt margin for 11 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 9 games (once) then 2 games (once), so this current streak is now the longest drought the EC has experienced for such a result.


(7) No Dog has won the 1st Quarter SU for 6 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (once) then 2 games (once). For a wider context, no Dog has gone 7 straight EC playoff games without being able to win any particular Q SU (the 2 other longest droughts have been no SU wins over 6 x 2Q, and 5 x 3Q).


(8) No EC game has delivered an Over or Under 'Total Trifecta' for 4 games

(A total trifecta is the same total result through the 1h+2h+FG.) The previous longest such EC trifecta drought in these playoffs has been 2 games (twice); by contrast the longest WC trifecta drought has been 2 games (5 times). Relative to past results, this current streak is already quite lengthy.


(9) The Favourite has not lost SU any of 4 straight Quarters

The previous longest such unbeaten streaks in these playoffs have been over 5 Q (twice) then 4 Q (4 times) then 3 Q (5 times). By contrast, the longest unbeaten Q streaks for WC faves have been 6 Q (once) then 5 Q (twice). So Washington avoiding losing either 1st half Q in G6 would see this current streak join elite company; their then avoiding losing the 3Q would set a new mark of futility for all Dogs, EC or otherwise.


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Favourite has won Boston's last 9 games ATS

Cleveland (with a live 6-0 run) is the only other team in the playoffs so far that has been involved in more than 4 straight games covered by the fave (next best is 5 straight, belonging unsurprisingly to Washington).


(2) The Home team is 5-0 ATS in Bos/Was last 5 games

This streak matches the previous longest run of 5 home ATS wins (all in the SA & Mem 1R series), with the next longest run being 3 wins (all in the Was & Atl 1R series). Thus this current home streak is by far the largest seen since the start of the 2nd Round.


(3) Teams leading @half-time are unbeaten SU in Boston's 5 road games

This streak matches the previous longest run of 5 straight road game h/t leaders/SU winners (Utah games), with the next longest being 4 road games (Toronto games) then 3 games (Memphis games).


(4) No Road team has led @half-time & won SU any of Wash's 5 home games

The previous longest droughts for such a result have been 4 games (3 times: 2 of these streaks still being alive, belong to Cleveland & GS), then 3 games (3 times).

Stat of note: Boston has trailed @h/t in only 1 of 5 road games played to date.


(5) Washington has not lost consecutive Quarters SU in 5 home games

The previous longest streak of such home consistency sits at 4 home games (held by Cleveland, a streak that is still live), so Wash's feat exists in rarified air.
-----
Edit: 13 of 18 streaks listed ended.
 
SAS@GSW G1

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The 'Under-Trifecta' has hit for 2 straight games

The previous longest such streak has been 2 games (once), so nothing that's occurred previously suggests this current streak is going to grow to any length of note.


(2) The 2nd Half total has gone Under for 4 straight games

The previous longest such streaks have been 4 games (once) then 2 games (5 times). Another streak which is o notice to end in the short term given the light past results cast upon it.


(3) No 2nd Half has totaled between 87-98 pts in reg. for 8 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 8 games (twice) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, 2h had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 17 times in 56 games = once every 3.29 games.


(4) No Home team has scored between 103-114 pts in reg. for 15 games

The previous longest such home scoring droughts have been 9 games (once) then 3 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, home teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 19 times in 49 games = once every 2.58 games.


(5) No Road team has scored between 92-99 pts in reg. for 13 games

The previous longest such road scoring droughts have been 14 games (once) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, road teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 15 times in 51 games = once every 3.40 games.


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC Dogs have won the 2nd Quarter SU for 7 straight games

The previous longest such streaks have been 6 games (once) then 5 games (once), so this current streak now represents the longest run of 2Q domination by the dog.


(2) No WC Home team has led at half-time for 3 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 3 games (once) then 2 games (once), evincing the fact that WC home teams have dominated proceedings when it comes to leading at the half (before this run, they had done so 20 times in 29 games).


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Dog has won the 2nd Quarter SU in SA's last 4 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 3 games (3 times) then 2 games (4 times).


(2) The Dog has won every 2nd Quarter SU in SA's 6 road games

The previous longest such streaks have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (once) then 2 games (once).

Stat of note for (1) & (2): The dog has gone 3-1 SU in the 2Q of GS's 4 home playoff games to date.


(3) The same team has won the 3rd & 4th Quarter SU in SA's last 5 road games

The previous longest such streak has been 2 games (twice). This current run is an outlier result without a doubt.


(4) GS has won the 1st & 4th Quarter SU in all 4 home games to date

The previous longest such streak has been 2 games (once, by Toronto vs. Milwaukee). Another unusual run that makes for an outlier result.
-----
Edit: 4 of the 11 streaks listed ended.
 
WAS@BOS G7

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The last 2 games have been decided by 1-4 point margins

The previous longest such streak had been 2 games (twice). These playoffs have seen no previous instances of a significant run of games all producing close contests.


(2) No Fave has led after 3 Quarters & won SU for 3 games.

The previous longest streak in these playoffs had been 2 games (6 times). Past results suggest this current streak isn't going to last much longer.


(3) No Team has won the 4th Quarter SU & lost SU in regulation for 7 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 7 games (once) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice), thus this present streak now matches the longest previous 'drought' for such an outcome.


(4) No 2nd Half has totaled between 87-98 pts in reg. for 9 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 8 games (twice) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, 2h had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 17 times in 56 games = once every 3.29 games.


(5) No Home team has scored between 96-109 pts for 8 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 7 games (once) then 5 games (twice) then 4 games (once), thus making this current streak the new playoff high. Prior to this current streak, road teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 22 times in 57 games = once every 2.59 games.


(6) No Road team has scored between 92-99 pts in reg. for 14 games

The previous longest such road scoring droughts have been 14 games (once) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, road teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 15 times in 51 games = once every 3.40 games.


Eastern Conference Trends

(1) No EC game has paid out on an 'Over Trifecta' for 6 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (twice) then 3 games (once).

Stat of note: The first 2 games of this series in Boston both delivered Over Trifectas (though G2 needed OT to do so), and G5 only failed to due to the 2h total going under by .5 a point. However, Boston did not deliver either total Trifecta in 3 home games vs. Chicago (which means they're 2 for 6 delivering the Over trifecta in home games).


(2) No EC Dog has won SU for 11 games

The previous longest such EC streaks in these playoffs have been 7 games (once) then 4 games (once) then 2 games (once).


(3) No EC 2nd half has totaled 99 regulation pts or fewer for 7 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (twice). Before this current 7-game drought, 31.8% of EC 2h were totaling 99 pts for fewer.


(4) No Dog has won the 1st Quarter SU for 7 games

The previous longest such streaks these playoffs have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (once) then 2 games (once). By contrast, the longest run of games a WC dog has gone without winning the 1Q SU is 8 games.


Individual Team Trends

(1) Every Washington Road 1st Half has totaled 109 pts or more

Out of the 14 playoff teams to have played at least 3 road games, Washington is the only one that can boast of this feat.


(2) Washington's Road 1st Halves are 6-0 to Over

Out of the 14 playoff teams to have played at least 3 road games, Washington is the only one that has yet to pay out on a 1h Under.


(3) No Boston 1st half @home has totaled between 103-117 pts

Out of the 8 playoff teams to have played at least 4 home games, Boston is the only one that can boast of this feat.


(4) The Home team has won the last 5 Quarters SU in this series

The previous longest streaks of such Home SU domination in any series have been 5 quarters (once) then 4 quarters (4 times) then 3 quarters (6 times). Nothing about the previous standards set in these playoffs suggests Boston is going to win every quarter played in G7.
-----
Edit: 6 of 14 streaks listed ended.
 
SAS@GSW G2

Overall Playoff Trends

(1) The Dog has won the 2nd Quarter SU for 4 straight games

The previous longest such streaks have been 4 games (4 times) then 3 games (once) then 2 games (4 times).


(2) No Home team has won the 2nd Quarter SU for 4 straight games

The previous longest such streaks have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (twice) then 2 games (3 times).


(3) No Team has won the 4th Quarter SU & lost SU in regulation for 8 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 7 games (once) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice), thus this present streak now represents the longest 'drought' for the playoffs to date.


(4) No 2nd Half has totaled between 87-98 pts in reg. for 10 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 8 games (twice) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, 2h had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 17 times in 56 games = once every 3.29 games.


(5) No Home team has scored between 96-109 pts for 9 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 7 games (once) then 5 games (twice) then 4 games (once), thus making this current streak the new playoff high. Prior to this current streak, road teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 22 times in 57 games = once every 2.59 games.


(6) No Road team has scored between 92-99 pts in reg. for 15 games

The previous longest such road scoring droughts have been 14 games (once) then 5 games (once) then 4 games (twice). Prior to this current streak, road teams had registered a regulation total within this 'zone' 15 times in 51 games = once every 3.40 games.


Western Conference Trends

(1) WC Dogs have won the 2nd Quarter SU for 8 straight games

The previous longest such streaks have been 6 games (once) then 5 games (once), so this current streak now represents easily the longest run of 2Q domination by the dog.


(2) No WC Home team has led at half-time for 4 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 3 games (once) then 2 games (once), evincing the fact that WC home teams have dominated proceedings when it comes to leading at the half (before this run, they had done so 20 times in 29 games).


Individual Team Trends

(1) The Dog has won the 2nd Quarter SU in SA's last 5 games

The previous longest such streaks have been 3 games (3 times) then 2 games (4 times).


(2) The Dog has won every 2nd Quarter SU in SA's 7 road games

The previous longest such streaks have been 4 games (once) then 3 games (once) then 2 games (once).

Stat of note for (1) & (2): The dog has gone 4-1 SU in the 2Q of GS's 5 home playoff games to date.


(3) The same team has won the 3rd & 4th Quarter SU in SA's last 6 road games

The previous longest such streak has been 2 games (twice). This current run is an outlier result without a doubt.
-----
Edit: _ of the 11 streaks listed ended.
 
I hit SA 2nd qtr and SA 1st half in the first game. Covered my GS- bet.
I'm gonna ride SA 2nd qtr again at +210.

Thanks for all you do BC

oops
 
Last edited:
My apologies to anyone who was using this thread, an extended-family matter arose that quickly diverted my attentions away from betting activities.
 
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