Playoff Hockey...Cup Finals

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Still haven't decided on the series...though gun to the head, and i'd have to say the Sens...i guess.
However...that doesn't mean i'll be on the Sens for game one in Anaheim...cuz i'm not. And it's got nothing to do with rust...as i feel this incredibly long delay between rounds will have both teams rusty as shit.

Two things got me on the Ducks for the first game, as i try to get a feel on the series. Kinda difficult, seeing that they haven't played each other this year. But both these things i mentioned in the other thread. First, backing the better goalie...who's been here before, and excelled...and who rarely loses at home. Second, is home ice. The key there is simply being able to control the matchups. Seeing that Ottawa relies so heavily on one truly dominant line, i think it'll be a huge advantage for the Ducks to be able to control who they have on the ice against this big line. On the road it'll obviously be a different story...but at home, the Ducks only shot at containing the Sens big line is by matching up with all their big horses. Hopefully it'll be enough...


ANA ML (-140) over OTT for 1.5 units

ANA PL -1.5 over OTT (+210) for 1/2 unit


A finals game being decided by more than one goal is very rare of late...so this should be the one and only PL i play this series.
Anyways...can't wait to watch the game tomorrow. Once it gets under way, i feel like i'll finally be able to get a better feeling for the series...or at least that's the hope.

Enjoy :cheers:
 
Im opposite you. Ottawa ML 2.28. I think rust might be more of a factor for the Ducks than the Sens, the sens conditioning is without reproach. The sens may have to weather the first 10 minutes or so but I look for them to take the game over with their speed after that. And 78% of cup winners have won game 1. GL
 
Sitting on the sidelines tonight for a side / total and want to see the coaching strategy applied for both tonight, and how they match up etc... then go from there.

GL Yanks
 
lol...guys, i'm not talking about my silly wager...i was calling for some love for the Ducks, and the game they played.
specifically...the shots on goal they kept the Sens limited too, the 5 on 5 play in general, and of course the 3rd period.

to me, the layoff is no excuse...as the delay between rounds was ridiculous, and both teams ended up with too much time off.
to me, it all comes down to controlling the matchups on home ice...and basically neutralizing the Sen's big line that way.

was just impressed with the Ducks game is all...
 
Game Two of the Finals

and i gotta stick with the home ice...

ANA ML (-130) over OTT for 1 unit

back to the well...though my plan is to switch over to the Sens when they get home, and are able to free up their big line a bit more.

but unless the refs give the Sens an abundance of power plays, and/or Emery stands on his head, i definitely see a similar result in game two.

GL :cheers:
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
and i gotta stick with the home ice...

ANA ML (-130) over OTT for 1 unit

back to the well...though my plan is to switch over to the Sens when they get home, and are able to free up their big line a bit more.

but unless the refs give the Sens an abundance of power plays, and/or Emery stands on his head, i definitely see a similar result in game two.

GL :cheers:
Click to expand...

Heck they had quite a few powerplays in game one, not to mention the two-man advantage they were given which lasted for about 1:35 or so at one juncture. For Ottawa's sake, they had better hope the Ducks powerplay doesn't catch fire!
 
Rug Rat said:
Heck they had quite a few powerplays in game one, not to mention the two-man advantage they were given which lasted for about 1:35 or so at one juncture. For Ottawa's sake, they had better hope the Ducks powerplay doesn't catch fire!
Click to expand...


yep...
i railed on the refs in the det series, so i'm gonna try not to focus on that too much.
giggy and the penalty killing though have been huge these 2 games.


2-1 in the finals so far. wanna switch over to the Sens for game three. and i'm curious (and somewhat hopeful) as to what the line will open at.

any guesses?
 
Sens dont have a 5-on-5 goal in this series. I see no point in backing them until they prove they can score one.

Fortunately my backing them to win it all (instead of SU in G's 1 or 2) will actually save me money in the end, not least affording me to back the Ducks on the road.
 
Nice Hit Yanks:cheers:

Game 3 is obviously pivotal for the Sens because if they go down 3-0 they wont be able to come back at least I dont think...Im thinking they inflate the Sens line for Game 3 but Im horrible at setting lines but I say -150
 
I'd say -150 might actually be a little low.

Thing is, I really think they win that game.

Of course, I thought they'd split in Anaheim.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I was flat wrong about OTT. I should have heeded the 1-run results thread, which predic(a)ted this total mismatch.
Click to expand...


yes...but not on the scoreboard so much.

heard a good analysis after the game by brian hayward (sp?...i hate the guy, Roy's ex-backup in Montreal, and his voice btw). he said the sens should forget about trying to match size/strength/hits with the ducks, because it obviously wore them out...after the first 10 minutes of trading hits.

anyways, i'm praying for anything under -150 for game 3. i really think the Sens take at least this one. can't get more must win than this. home ice...crowd...controlling matchups better...and maybe even an extra call or two go their way (as if there haven't been enough, lol).

despite everything, they were a fluke goal away from going up 1-0 tonight...before sammy's goal. then they still had a couple excellent opportunities to send it to OT. maybe home ice, with their backs against the wall, will be the difference.

don't think the sens have a real shot at the series anymore...which is stating the obvious, i know...but i also think they're not completely done just yet.

anyways, i'll be on them the next game...though now it might be the only time i'm on them this series. and if the ML is jsut too pricey, i'll ave to play the -.5 in regulation or something...because final games always seem to be 1 goal games, which eliminates the PL for the most part.
 
Its not over yet, at least Ottawas improved over game 1. And for all the dominating the Ducks have done, they sure dont score too many goals. Fisher again was Ottawas best player. Sens got to win way more faceoffs, and their forwards got to run the Ducks defencemen on the chip-ins like the ducks forward are doing to Ottawas defencemen. I didnt play anything last night thank goodness. Ottawa should win game 3. I still think Ottawa can take it.
 
I personally think Ottawa's in deep s**t, but also think they put themselves there and they're talented enough to get out of it.

I think they win Game Three. Now, I'm 0-2 for the series so far, so take that for what it's worth, but I really like them here. The question is Game Four. If Ottawa can get 'em both, but more importantly, figure out the style they want to use against this team, I also think this thing can go to seven games and the Sens have a shot.

But I agree with the point Yanks made, trading hits was great for the first ten mintues of the game, they got some PP chances out of it and controlled play. But it tired them out and they were basically out of gas for the entire second period.

They can't go down that road again. They need to find ways to create space for their skill guys.

Same thing I said about the Pens in their first round series vs. the Sens, and the Pens never found a way to do it. It remains to be seen if the Sens can.
 
Call me a stupid optimist but I think its very possible Ottawa wins the next 4 games. Theyll be a different team at home. And the way the Ducks never put the sens away in Anaheim, the sens are likely to win/steal one game there after finding their good form at home.
 
You're starting to sound like me in the Pens/Sens series, Cat.

=)

I actually agree with you, but it all comes back to one thing. The Sens have proven they can adjust and expose the other team's weakness in every single series up to this point. They now have to prove it here. If they can, they still have a good chance to win this thing because the Ducks don't really have another style. It's lean on Giggy or bust, pretty much.
 
What do you think about this game 3 bet Joe (and everyone else)...

1st period Ottawa -0.5 2.650
 
Game 3, on Saturday 6/2

well, fucking -170 is WAY too steep a price for me to back Ottawa in game three. that's just crazy...
and the PL is out, imo, as final games always end in a one goal win. so the -1.5 is out...and so is the -1, cuz what good is a tie providing they do indeed win.

so, seeing that i still wanna back the Sens in game 3 (as it may possibly be the only time i'm backing the sens in the series) all that was left for me was to make a regulation only play.

OTT -.5 over ANA (+100) reg. only for 1 unit

wanting to take the Sens, it was the only play i could justify to myself on the game. though i am still considering a small safety play on the game going to OT, jsut in case. but i'll wait until game time to do anything more.

anyways, i admit, i was a bit shocked to see -170. honestly, i was thinking we'd see something similar to what the Ducks were favored at home...-140 and -130, considering everything. though there is plenty of time for the line to get driven down, i guess.
 
totally agree, team coming home down 2-0 is being priced at -170? Come on now... stubborness is making me most likely sit this one out ... maybe throw it in a parlay or something.

GL Yanks
 
Santacapper said:
totally agree, team coming home down 2-0 is being priced at -170? Come on now... stubborness is making me most likely sit this one out ... maybe throw it in a parlay or something.

GL Yanks
Click to expand...

yep...understandable.

line seems to be holding at -170 too, for crap's sake. so i'm jsut gonna leave it at this one reg only play, see what happens, then move onto game four.

enjoy the game, boys.:cheers:
 
Yanks,
Thought -150 at he most...-170 is tough as is -160 for the Under 5.5.
Took the Quacks...may be my last play of this season....
 
well...glad to get the win. finals definitely going well for me. but now i'm already undecided which way to go in game four.

guess i'll wait and see about any suspension for a-hole pronger. but literally everything fell into place for ottawa tonight.
on one side, a small part of me wants to back them again in game four. on the other side, they were very fortunate to get this win.

giguere played poorly. 4 ducks on the ice for one goal. the kicked in goal. (glad it was allowed, for my bet...but that was not a goal.) and then pronger has an own goal to boot. then there's the inordinate amount of PPs the Sens were given. hell...they definitely got the bounces, and had luck on their side tonight...and they needed jsut about all of it to win the game.

anyways...not sure yet which way to go.
giguere is perfect at home in finals games...and perfect in losing on the road in finals games. home ice is huge...and the fans definitely seemed to propel the sens into their best effort.
jsut not sure...i guess if lady luck &/or lightning will stike twice for them.

decisions, decisions...
 
Game 4, on Monday 6/4

Well, a few things pushed me back over to the Duck's side in game four. A couple of the minor ones i just posted in that Pronger suspension thread. However, there are two major ones as well.

One of those is the 3rd paragraph (of 4) in my post the other night, directly above, after hitting Ottawa in game three. Everything seemingly went the Sens way...and i don't believe they can be so fortunate two games in a row.

The second major thing is the line. At -200, there is no way i'm backing the Sens. That's an even crazier line, imo, than the game three line. Taking out the over-reaction to game three's result...imho, all the value lies with the Ducks at +170 today.
And finals games rarely are decided by more than one goal...so the PL is out, for me personally, the entire series.

Anyways...

ANA ML (+170) over OTT for 1 unit

And no...i'm actually not all that worried with Pronger sitting out. It got them to re-focus against the Wings, and i believe it'll get them back on track against the Sens.

Been on the right side for all 3 Final games so far...and obviously hoping that will continue tonight.

GL :cheers:
 
My series bet and my heart can't be on your side on this one, Yanks.

Gotta root for the Sens, really want to see this thing tied up at 2-2.
 
I like the Ducks, but I think we're due for an OT, if not now then in game 5. 1/2 units on Ducks +170 and 60 minute Draw +325.
 
Good luck yanks, cant argue much, seems no bet is really appealing. I too think an overtime is due.
 
Game 5, on Wednesday 6/6

The night the Stanley Cup gets skated around the Pond of Anaheim/Honda Center...

This thing is over. Any glimmer of hope was extinguished by the 2nd and 3rd periods the Ducks put together (w/out Pronger) in Game Four.

Anyways, been on the right side for each of the finals games...and i want it to end that way. (4-1, +4.70 in the finals.) So here are what should for all intents & purposes be my final two plays of the hockey season...


ANA -.5 over OTT (-105) reg. only for 2 units

ANA PL -1.5 over OTT (+190) for 1 unit


Some more thoughts are in the MDF thread i jsut created. But the Ducks are closers...that's a playoff proven fact. Giguere does not lose at home, especially in the finals. And this is quite frankly one of the best built playoff teams in recent memory. (And note, this is coming out of an LA Kings fan mouth...which is borderline sacraligous (sp?) imo.)

Enjoy the final game, boys. :cheers:
 
btw...i still get teary-eyed every time the Cup is won, regardless of who i'm on or the particular team.
a sentimental pussy, i know...but if you're a semi-fan of the sport, do yourself a favor and watch this game.
 
I agree with you Yanks, this series is done and it will be great to see Alfredsson have to shake Niedermayer's hand!
 
:wacka wacka: great finish to the year.


jsut updating stuff for myself...for future reference...


NHL YTD: 94-98-1, +1.235...Parlays: 7-9, +.4936
Playoffs/1st Round: 22-22, +.775
Playoffs/2nd Round: 10-16, -3.125
Playoffs/3rd Round: 5-7, +.15
Playoffs/Cup Finals: 6-1, +8.6
Playoff Totals: 43-46, +6.4


pretty disappointing season, breaking even. then playing each & every playoff game, more of the same stuff...until the finals. kinda like a lackluster round of golf, but getting a birdie on 18...just enough to leave you feeling good, and ready for the next round.

anyways, CYA in october

unreal...the Stanley Cup here in LA...
 
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