Playoff Elimination Game Totals: 2009

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 53-34-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 20-18-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 33-16-1


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 25-19-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 14-10-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 11-9


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 28-15-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _6-8
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 22-7-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing % of only .233), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.

The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they win SU: O/U 7-1
Elimination games they lose SU: O/U 2-3

For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

08-09 Elimination game results


Round 1

CLE @ DET : Game 4 - Over (thou Under the closing line)
UTH @ LAK : Game 5 - Under
DAL @ SAS : Game 5 - Over
HOU @ POR : Game 5 - Under
NOR @ DEN : Game 5 - Under
BOS @ CHC : Game 6 - Over
ORL @ PHI : Game 6 - Over
POR @ HOU : Game 6 - Under
ATL @ MIA : Game 6 - Under
CHC @ BOS : Game 7 - Over
MIA @ ATL : Game 7 - Under

Round 2

CLE @ ATL : Game 4 -
DEN @ DAL : Game 4 -


Round 3

.


Round 4

.

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This article below does not figure in results from the 06-07 or 07-08 post seasons (but imo such a lack doesn't undermine the stats related).





<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]THE NBA PLAYOFFS - THE TOTAL PICTURE [/FONT]


</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]by: Tom Scott [/FONT]


</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2007-04-11 17:02:40 [/FONT]


</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]As a bettor myself, I look forward to the NBA Playoffs, mostly because I win. Annually, I make a significant profit during this event which allows me to enjoy the summer without having to worry about paying for pool chemicals. The reason for my success (31-15 ATS over the past three years on this site) in these events is that I do not allow myself to get caught up in the drama, maintaining a calm unbiased attitude toward the games that are played. In this article, I will pass along some of my handicapping techniques to help you navigate through this period without having to take a second mortgage on the house. [/FONT]


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN DECIDING TO PLAY THE TOTALS, most every plunger looks for the Over first. It's a natural tendency formed mostly by the idea that, if you take the OVER, you can't lose until the game is complete. You can lose the Under anytime during the second half. For that reason alone, the linemaker adjusts nightly in favor of the Over and because he is doing so without sound reasoning, we can take him out behind the woodshed and thrash him from pillar to post.[/FONT]



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's start this treatise with one simple rule - "NEVER PLAY THE OVER IN AN NBA PLAYOFF GAME". Flat statements don't get any flatter than that but this one isn't just a whimsical warning, it's backed by the facts. Except for the games in which the OU Line is 220 or higher, the UNDER won more times than the OVER in all six of the line categories (ranges of ten starting with 160-169.5). What follows is a set of eight different situations where the UNDER prevails profitably.[/FONT]​




[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN THE GAME HAS:[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]​




[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN THE TOURNAMENT ROUND OR GAME NUMBER IS: [/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game two of any series in which the OVER connected in game one and the Game Two OU Line is less than 184, the UNDER has won 34 times in 52 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game three of any series where the home team scored more than 97 in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 193, the UNDER has won 37 times in 55 tries.[/FONT]​



[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you add up all eight of those records, you will find 436 UNDERS against just 272 OVERS, A profitable 61.6% winners [/FONT]​






​
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​
 
good find BC, but eh the stats should not be added together.

I wouldnt be surprised if there were games that fit into all of these stats:

A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.

A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.

A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.

A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.

making a normal 1-0 look 4-0, etc.

agree on the general idea though- playoff basketball= unders
 
If 1 game fit into all 4, from my pov it still doesn't undermine the fact it independently qualified for each of the 4 different "trend lenses". I understand what you're saying, I just don't see it undermining any particular "lense" even if it has been the case (the 1 result qualified for 2 or more categories) on multiple occasions.
 
very interesting !!
thank you Betcrimes .:cheers:

also, where is the post with the 2 days rest VS B2B teams ?
can you tell me what was the results for this year ?
 
So far 2-0 in these playoffs with Pistons/Cavs and Lakers/Jazz going under in game 4 and 5 respectively. :cheers:
 
that's enough for me, BAR.

i think DAL-SA is the only one not to go under so far so it's 3 (HOU-POR, CLE-DET, UTAH-LAL) and 1
 
In theory all these unders should be bet tonight. Houston/Portland, Boston/Chicago, Philly/Orlando. I just can't do it.

I don't like any of them.

Which almost guarantees they go at least 2-1.
 
Everyone of those series has had too many Under results in their recent games, and generally the run of Unders over recent days has been too extreme, so just when past stats say think to bet Unders, an Over correction comes along. I just hope that some series survive tonight while going Over to see game 7s. Pretty rare for a game 6 & 7 to both go Over.
 
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That's what past history strongly suggests. The opening line is going to be real interesting on this one. If it holds to where it was for Game 6, I'd say that says they expect Under.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
That's what past history strongly suggests. The opening line is going to be real interesting on this one. If it holds to where it was for Game 6, I'd say that says they expect Under.
Click to expand...

BC,

because OT scares the shit out of me, is there anything that says anything about 1H unders?

I know i took the 1H Under b/t POR-HOU in game 5 and that lost while the full game under hit, but do you have any data on both halves or is it just full game?

...i will certainly lean to a Beantown blowout on Saturday and would love that under
 
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